Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: All any of us can do is hope and pray he's correct. Possibly the one we've been waiting for I thought you said yesterday this had zero chance up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 minute ago, Hoth said: I thought you said yesterday this had zero chance up here. I think the dude's high as a kite..but it doesn't mean I can't hope he's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 they used to have this icon of a dude covering his eyes in a shameful refrain - ...that is sorely needed right now - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Scooters cubicle mate VGW Ventrice gone wild https://business.weather.com/blog/hurricane-matthew-update-now-major-hurricane-category-3-and-a-credible-threat-to-the-northeast This graphic seems crazy... a 40-50% chance of a tropical cyclone in VT on a day 7-8 prog? Chances seem really high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 if nothing else, that'a beauty of a sat loop he's got goin' on there... yeeeah, sounds like he's excited. for me, the Euro now 'missing' Matt and leaving him meandering about the SW Basin as a powerful entity ...underscores uncertainty more so now than ever. it's just what we've been trying to elucidate - there is utterly 1% chance of any solution beyond D...4.5 or so... so, you be the judge on futility and decide before you start typing - it's up to you man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Scooters cubicle mate VGW Ventrice gone wild https://business.weather.com/blog/hurricane-matthew-update-now-major-hurricane-category-3-and-a-credible-threat-to-the-northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If that Euro scenario were to happen..and it won't.. The Bahamas would be wiped out. No longer in existence. It would be like what Mitch did for Honduras, only without the mountains to chop up the wind (and wring out the rain.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Beautiful eye on this thing now. Warming nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 I guess I'll be up at the new Maine digs next weekend. I best bring myself an anemometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 LOL 947mb. Pressure dropping like a rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 firstly ...wtf does 'calibrated' mean in that context - he mentions 'their CALIBRATED...' in deference to (I guess) some in-house products but, calibrated can mean anything. like, hey guys - i calibrated the input parameters of the ECM and GFS ensembles, specifically to smoke New England and check this schit out! woa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 13 minutes ago, Hoth said: LOL 947mb. Pressure dropping like a rock. Saffir/Simpson would put that around 130 mph, with 9-12 ft surge. Just under Cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 FTW #Matthew is now a Category 4 monster with 140mph winds and pressure of 949mb. Strongest Atlantic storm of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 What a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Watch Matty continue W, Uncertainty cones will adjust accordingly, and the track will skirt the W coast of FL. impacting millions. This sukka is in it's own environment. YUUGE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Scooters cubicle mate VGW Ventrice gone wild https://business.weather.com/blog/hurricane-matthew-update-now-major-hurricane-category-3-and-a-credible-threat-to-the-northeast Terrible article, pure hype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: FTW #Matthew is now a Category 4 monster with 140mph winds and pressure of 949mb. Strongest Atlantic storm of the year. Especially noteworthy considering the 20kt shear environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Matthew is a beautiful hurricane, I think category five intensity is possible before 5am tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 23 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: Watch Matty continue W, Uncertainty cones will adjust accordingly, and the track will skirt the W coast of FL. impacting millions. This sukka is in it's own environment. YUUGE! The GFDL takes it there: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p®ion=14L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016093012&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0 The flaw in these model depictions is that the wind field seems to be restricted to the seaward side, even when the hurricane is just barely offshore FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 RAW T# according to the ADT satellite intensity estimation this system is almost a category five hurricane with a number of 6.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 The track of the hurricane is oscillating wobbles like most intense hurricanes do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: The GFDL takes it there: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl-p®ion=14L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016093012&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0 I saw that earlier today. I did once upon a time have a document (article) that roughly gave HGT to Intensity re: steering current. Can someone enlighten please. Still is a teaching and learning forum. Thank-you in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Next hurricane hunter en route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Man...Matthew wasted no time growing into a beast. Not surprising given how strong it looked as a wave. Couldn't be prouder of a storm sharing my name...hopefully he's working his way to retirement. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 The eye wall storms of Matthew are expanding in the eastern semicircle. This storm is exploding, could be a category five hurricane shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 19 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: I saw that earlier today. I did once upon a time have a document (article) that roughly gave HGT to Intensity re: steering current. Can someone enlighten please. Still is a teaching and learning forum. Thank-you in advance. Old adage says a ship this large can't turn on a dime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Man ADT raw T# of 6.9 indicates 139 knot winds estimated, eye temp of -1.9C, it continues to warm while surrounding eye wall cloud tops are on average -72.0C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 42 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Terrible article, pure hype yea pretty early but we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Such a highly uncertain pattern building in for this hurricane. Right now it could max out at 175mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 With the higher than anticipated strengthening(much higher) this storm may take a more westerly track, possibly affecting Florida. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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