Heisy Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 @ 177 hours the 18z GFS is much farther E, and it looks like the incoming trough might kick it OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 00z tonight should hold more weight with the data ingested....def. by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Big difference in heights in the central Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 No mention of the EPS......so deduce what you may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No mention of the EPS......so deduce what you may. Alot in the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 47 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 18z gfs is going to be good I think how 'bout now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: how 'bout now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 I have noticed that even the earlier more optimistic set of GEFS were really split into two camps...Edouard like curl se of the cape, of into the Carolinas/MA.....there was one Bob track. A track bodily into c NE is highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 987mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 982mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 See ya Matt....have some fish..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 19 hours ago, powderfreak said: That should tell us how rare it is to get one to New England. Lots of red lines, few in NE. I think there are about as many red lines through Wisconsin as their are through interior New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Nick might have to watch this as it could get slingshoted into nfld as a power house ET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Nice hard "exit, stage right" at the Carolina's. Regardless, the dry areas in SNE are still getting some nice moisture from the crap we've been dealing for the past week/upcoming several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 I would still watch SE US if it turns N a bit later, but not looking good up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 46 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: I would still watch SE US if it turns N a bit later, but not looking good up here. Looking pretty damn good if your a surfer. There will be massive surf and beach erosion regardless of the offshore track. Ruggles in new port RI could see 20 foot surf with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 18 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Looking pretty damn good if your a surfer. There will be massive surf and beach erosion regardless of the offshore track. Ruggles in new port RI could see 20 foot surf with this 10 days of ENE winds , I'd hit Watch Hill Lighthouse if you have the balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Well, I'm going to turn around and exit this thread since we are to the point of discussing swells in s RI beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: AWT This was my guess yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, I'm going to turn around and exit this thread since we are to the point of discussing swells in s RI beaches. Pack the boogie boards into the station wagons folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 It's always a long shot. This is a cane out at d7-8. It's still progged to go up the eastern seaboard so at least give it the weekend to see how the synoptics shake out. It's going to be a long winter if we have lalaland leapfrogging like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: how 'bout now? Lol I was wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 38 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's always a long shot. This is a cane out at d7-8. It's still progged to go up the eastern seaboard so at least give it the weekend to see how the synoptics shake out. It's going to be a long winter if we have lalaland leapfrogging like this. Same thing happens every year. I was poking around the Irene and Sandy threads the other day and saw the same dismissive tenor in many posts at the 140-180 hour range. And undoubtedly they will happen with every future threat, including those that fully deliver. Sure it fits climo that this should miss (it probably will) and being dismissive balms egos in danger of disappointment. But the fact remains that a powerful tropical cyclone is on all modeling moving north through the Bahamas, the upper air pattern is fluid and far from locked down, and the models often struggle with speed/track/intensity of cyclones. If this were a Jan nor'easter scraping at 70 hours, we would be getting posts telling us to expect the next runs to start backing it in, that the upper air isn't well sampled etc., but with a tropical system it's obviously correct at 170 hours. Anyway, I'm happy just to watch this evolve and am really impressed it's intensifying in the face of 20kt+ shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 58 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's always a long shot. This is a cane out at d7-8. It's still progged to go up the eastern seaboard so at least give it the weekend to see how the synoptics shake out. It's going to be a long winter if we have lalaland leapfrogging like this. Lol...I never even looked much at this at all...so any changes in forecast between day 10 and day 8 were basically hidden to me. Maybe I'll take a mild interest by Sunday or Monday if models are showing a close pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 lol. The mass exodus begins at 8 days out. Makes me look forward to the same thing happening in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowlieSnowstormson Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 7 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: lol. The mass exodus begins at 8 days out. Makes me look forward to the same thing happening in the winter. We used to have a weenie tag for these types of threads. Especially when they occurred in winter. A little more slack in the autumn when nothing else is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Lol I was wrong! heh... yeah i was jokin' too - this thing's a b**ch - seems the governing tenor of the models have been to torment here ...soon as interest wanes they seem to unilaterally puke out a blockbuster solution - then, hearts rattle by their deliberate next run of harmlessness. it's like Bart Simpson when he recorded Millhouse being crushed by Lisa, his sister. He kept rewinding to the precise moment Lisa says no, and Milhouse reacts, over and over again, while saying, "Watch .. .the exact moment when the heart breaks" - and laughing in Schadenfreude (means taking joy in other people's misery). that what the models are ... winter, summer, spring ... hurricanes, they are taking Schadenfreude from getting people all lubed up and hard for a big lie, only to orgasm when they make everyone's balls blue. ... venture in creative writing over ... in any case, it would be foolish and un-educated to think some sort of direct affliction is not plausible along the EC, regardless of the 00z runs. There is too much time. For one... the N. Atlantic teleconnector seems to be quasi-in line here, with a couple of powerful Icelandic bombs rotating up there; that tends to balance mass-fields with some sort of mid and lower tropospheric blocking in the form of high pressure SW of Greenland. that's pretty well agreed upon. More over, not sure anyone can be certain that ..backward transitive influence on the flow along and astride the EC is correct as that region may not be correctly handled to begin with. the list goes on... then we have to be perfectly modeling the MW trough components too? good luck... too much going on just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Matthew is now a major hurricane. 115mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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