OceanStWx Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 GGW - GFS gone wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 On 9/27/2016 at 10:59 PM, CoastalWx said: We sling it into BDR? Expand That was a hoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 That's 1938!! Cat 3 into BDR and up the CTRV. Oh what we all wouldn't give for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 I'm glad this is out in fantasy land. This would be quite scary if it were 3 or 4 days out and not over 200 hours out. Odds are extremely low on something this extreme happening. If Matthew develops, a track more west seems to be a bit higher than yesterday. By the way tides are low for late next week. That is a good thing if some type of storm is threatening the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Pretty much a Bob track....eastern LI and CC/islands would be devastated, but it would be pretty manageable for the rest of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 On 9/27/2016 at 11:16 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pretty much a Bob track....eastern LI and CC/islands would be devastated, but it would be pretty manageable for the rest of the area. Expand Actually the GFS sends it NW and not NE from that image. Definitely more of a Sandy hook than the typical SNE slice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Of course, it's all moot at this range. We just know the GFS likes the idea of there being something off the East Coast 200+ hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 On 9/27/2016 at 11:18 PM, OceanStWx said: Of course, it's all moot at this range. We just know the GFS likes the idea of there being something off the East Coast 200+ hours from now. Expand Great post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 On 9/27/2016 at 11:09 PM, Damage In Tolland said: That's 1938!! Cat 3 into BDR and up the CTRV. Oh what we all wouldn't give for that. Expand Yeah, 130mph winds on Long Island and 800 people dead sounds great to repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 On 9/27/2016 at 11:16 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pretty much a Bob track....eastern LI and CC/islands would be devastated, but it would be pretty manageable for the rest of the area. Expand not even close to a Bob track at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 On 9/27/2016 at 11:02 PM, OceanStWx said: GGW - GFS gone wild Expand no buns can begin to describe the epicosity of THAT mother-f solution - that's just about precisely.. .in fact, can someone just e-frame that? that's a permanent web-header page, period. Category three hurricane hooking left at a higher translation speed than Sandy ... INTO the NY Bite, not down the coast... that solution is what the evil of Sandy did wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 On 9/27/2016 at 11:10 PM, wxeyeNH said: I'm glad this is out in fantasy land. This would be quite scary if it were 3 or 4 days out and not over 200 hours out. Odds are extremely low on something this extreme happening. If Matthew develops, a track more west seems to be a bit higher than yesterday. By the way tides are low for late next week. That is a good thing if some type of storm is threatening the east coast. Expand the total evolution of the hell on Earth ... low tides mean nothing. sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Granted it's out in lala land, but it's uncanny how similar the track evolution is on that run with Sandy. Takes the hard turn north in the Caribbean, runs over eastern Cuba and through the Bahamas, then whips into the coast at our latitude. Well, it may be extremely unlikely, but it aint boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 On 9/27/2016 at 11:32 PM, Ginx snewx said: not even close to a Bob track at 18z Expand I didn't look at it...who cares about the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 The rain would certainly cause some issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_18z/ensloopmref.html#picture Lot of big hits on ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Well I've been wanting to buy a new anemometer. If I place the order by tomorrow I'm sure I can singlehandedly hook this back out into the Atlantic. Decisions, decisions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 The specter of regression may loom large given that we are in the midst of the drought of our lives right now...this would actually make sense from that standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 On 9/27/2016 at 11:10 PM, wxeyeNH said: I'm glad this is out in fantasy land. This would be quite scary if it were 3 or 4 days out and not over 200 hours out. Odds are extremely low on something this extreme happening. If Matthew develops, a track more west seems to be a bit higher than yesterday. By the way tides are low for late next week. That is a good thing if some type of storm is threatening the east coast. Expand That's sandy but weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 On 9/27/2016 at 11:26 PM, Sugarloaf1989 said: Yeah, 130mph winds on Long Island and 800 people dead sounds great to repeat. Expand A 1938 redux would actually be far more catastrophic than the original due to the exponential increase in population and changes to the land since then. Fanatasy land anyway. I'll root for the up the Chesapeake Bay or Bob type scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 On 9/28/2016 at 12:09 AM, klw said: The rain would certainly cause some issues. Expand Irene revisited. Again, no thanks to a windless, devastating flood for WNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 On 9/28/2016 at 12:17 AM, qg_omega said: That's sandy but weaker Expand Pressure wise, but that solution would offer a far greater concentrated wind potential, as it retains tropical characteristics. Different animal, as the two are not homogeneous entities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 0z Hurricane Models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 I want me some clustering btwn Cuba and Hati... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 On 9/28/2016 at 1:10 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I want me some clustering btwn Cuba and Hati... Expand It's getting there :), can't wait for my breezy day once this gets close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 On 9/28/2016 at 12:46 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: A 1938 redux would actually be far more catastrophic than the original due to the exponential increase in population and changes to the land since then. Fanatasy land anyway. I'll root for the up the Chesapeake Bay or Bob type scenario. Expand As a former resident of Long Island this storm was always talked about during hurricane season. Westhampton and Southhampton where completely destroyed. Damage on that scale today would cost billions. I think the loss of life would be far less, but that part of the East End is not that easy to evacuate, as routes in and out are limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 On 9/28/2016 at 1:31 AM, Sugarloaf1989 said: As a former resident of Long Island this storm was always talked about during hurricane season. Westhampton and Southhampton where completely destroyed. Damage on that scale today would cost billions. I think the loss of life would be far less, but that part of the East End is not that easy to evacuate, as routes in and out are limited. Expand Can you imagine? Some would be a month without power I'm sure. 2 billion trees! WTF? http://www.weather.gov/okx/1938HurricaneHome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 On 9/28/2016 at 1:44 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Can you imagine? Some would be a month without power I'm sure. 2 billion trees! WTF? http://www.weather.gov/okx/1938HurricaneHome Expand Bob was a glancing blow and it cut power from Selden on east for several days, flooded the Montauk Branch of the LIRR and Montauk Highway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 On 9/27/2016 at 10:57 PM, OceanStWx said: Happy hour GFS with a 917 even with HSE's latitude. Expand Out of curiosity, where did you see 917? I didn't see any map below 950s, but perhaps it's a resolution thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 On 9/28/2016 at 1:57 AM, Hoth said: Out of curiosity, where did you see 917? I didn't see any map below 950s, but perhaps it's a resolution thing. Expand AWIPS. But I'm not really sure the specifics of what gets truncated and what doesn't on the NCEP site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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