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October 2016 General Discussion


IWXwx

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Trees were running way behind schedule a few weeks ago, with most trees still mostly green.  In the last week or so we've seen a rapid change, as most trees are turning now, and some are even losing quite a few leaves.  Sugar maples will be peaking this week, and oaks probably next week the way it looks.  Ashes are already past peak, and walnuts and cottonwoods are mostly bare now.

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Only interesting thing to note weatherwise is the lack of cold temps so far this season.  Coldest temp so far in MLI has been 34 on the 13th and 14th.  Hit 35 here those two nights.  Doesn't look like any freeze possibilities exist for the foreseeable future, although we may get into the mid 30s tomorrow night.  Looked up the latest freeze date for MLI, and it's 11/12/46.  Still a ways to go, but with the lack of cold air through the end of the month maybe we'll give that record a run.  

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9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Only interesting thing to note weatherwise is the lack of cold temps so far this season.  Coldest temp so far in MLI has been 34 on the 13th and 14th.  Hit 35 here those two nights.  Doesn't look like any freeze possibilities exist for the foreseeable future, although we may get into the mid 30s tomorrow night.  Looked up the latest freeze date for MLI, and it's 11/12/46.  Still a ways to go, but with the lack of cold air through the end of the month maybe we'll give that record a run.  

The lack of cold air is starting to become concerning, as well as the precipitation pattern, we have recorded only 0.34" of rain this month. 

Our average first frost is October 17th which coincidentally we hit 86 degrees that day, not even a frost in site. 

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Guest ovweather

So far this is the warmest and driest October on record in Louisville. Feels like mid-July outside right now with temps in the mid to upper 80's and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60's. Rain total for the month is a trace.

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4 hours ago, Chambana said:

The lack of cold air is starting to become concerning, as well as the precipitation pattern, we have recorded only 0.34" of rain this month. 

Our average first frost is October 17th which coincidentally we hit 86 degrees that day, not even a frost in site. 

2007 and 1998 both say "hi."

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On 10/19/2016 at 6:04 PM, Hoosier said:

Personally I wouldn't get concerned about the lack of cold air yet.  October is a bit early as the overall pattern is in the process of transition from summer.  I'm most interested in upstream developments going forward into November.

A quick glance of the top warmest Octobers shows lots of cold winters. Lack of cold air not concerning at all yet.

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Here in GRR (and probably other locations as well) in the last year we only have had one month (April) that has been below average and at this time it looks like October has a good shot of being above average (right now the mean here in GRR is 58.8 and that is +5.8) For anyone looking for “analog” years here at GRR one year that come close to this in in 1921. So based on just the mean temperature of the months leading up to the winter one analog year to look at would the winter of 1921/22. While not as close another year to look at would be the winter of 2007/08.  Based on just the warmest October’s (not sure if this October will fall into that yet or not) but here is a list of the warmest October’s here in GRR

1900….59.9°, 1920….58.9°, 1947….58.8°, 1963….58.8°, 1971….58.3°, 2007….58.1° as already stated so far this October 58.8°

Now the big question is when will the string come to a end? Of course we are now overdue for a few or more below average months will they come this winter? Next spring or next summer?

At this time I am going with a average winter temperature wise (turning more below average deeper into winter think February in to April, Yes April I am sorry to say) as for snow fall my guess is between 55 and 95” more toward the lake and less toward Lansing.  With 78” being a good guess for the Grand Rapids metro area. But as always this is subject to change.

 

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