Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

October 2016 General Discussion


IWXwx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 320
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Sam Lashley at IWX has mentioned in his couple of discussions that isolated severe is not out of the question tomorrow across northern IN, especially near the triple point. Another instance of low CAPE/high shear values. Any thoughts from the severe guys?

Another event with strong shear and weak
instability but surface low tracks right across the area. This has
proven interesting in several cases this year with some cases
producing isolated weak tornadoes and downbursts. Certainly not
advocating that in this event but worth noting given strong wind
profiles and low level shear. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Sam Lashley at IWX has mentioned in his couple of discussions that isolated severe is not out of the question tomorrow across northern IN, especially near the triple point. Another instance of low CAPE/high shear values. Any thoughts from the severe guys?


Another event with strong shear and weak
instability but surface low tracks right across the area. This has
proven interesting in several cases this year with some cases
producing isolated weak tornadoes and downbursts. Certainly not
advocating that in this event but worth noting given strong wind
profiles and low level shear. 

 

Given the number of sneaky events this year, I don't think it's off base to mention the possibility.  Low level shear looks very good tomorrow but instability is pretty terrible, especially in the IWX cwa.  Never say never but I think the lackluster instability/dews will hurt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Given the number of sneaky events this year, I don't think it's off base to mention the possibility.  Low level shear looks very good tomorrow but instability is pretty terrible, especially in the IWX cwa.  Never say never but I think the lackluster instability/dews will hurt.

Thanks. I know SPC is thinking the same, but I also know Sam wouldn't mention it if he didn't think that at least a severe storm is possible (he is a weenie like us).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Getting light rain here with a very cool temperature of 38° now at my house. With the forecasted high today in the mid 40’s Today looks to be the coldest October 26th  at GRR since 2001 and the 3rd coldest in the last 30 years While the coldest maximum for the date (35° set in 1942) is safe.  In fact there have been 5 years in the past when October 26 has not gotten out of the 30’s the last time that happened was 1988.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Yep same here, though sometimes looks like snow flakes on the home webcam .

Great baseball weather !    GO tribe ! 

The warm layer above the dry low levels is like 33 degrees per RAP forecast soundings so it's possible some flakes are making it through, especially when it comes down a little. It's a little colder the farther east you go so maybe there's a better shot at some globby flakes making it through out in Geauga County. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yesterday’s high here in Grand Rapids of 40° was the coldest high since April 9th high of 36° when we had 5” of snow on the ground. While many areas received snow, I did not see any here nor was there any reported at the airport. Over in Bay City my mother in reported they had huge flacks and at times it covered the ground.  Here at my house I received 0.95” of rain. At the airport, the report was 0.89” and that is a new record for the date.  So far this month GRR has reported 6.04” Since September 1st the total is 8.44” and for the year GRR is now at 39.98”

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Congrats for those that saw some flakes today.  Still probably a good 3-5 weeks away from our first flakes the way this fall season has gone so far.  Still awaiting the first freeze, which still looks weeks away.

 

Far cry from a few years back when our first flakes flew on Oct 4th lol.

Can probably bet on it not going down like last year, when many places had their first flakes with that Nov 20-21  storm.  Anecdotally, seems like it's often a wound up cutter that initially puts us in the warm sector and gives some backwash flurries/snow showers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Can probably bet on it not going down like last year, when many places had their first flakes with that Nov 20-21  storm.  Anecdotally, seems like it's often a wound up cutter that initially puts us in the warm sector and gives some backwash flurries/snow showers.

If an early heavy snow like last year means what we got the rest of last winter, then I'm content to wait till December for the first 1"+ lol.

 

Only made 49 today, with plenty of pesky clouds.  Coldest day of the season so far.  We launch into the 70s tomorrow, and I think we give 80 a run on Saturday with favorable west-southwest winds immediately ahead of the incoming cold front.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...