IWXwx Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 As we roll into October, an all-too typical showdown between the ECMWF and the GFS looms. It looks like NWS is buying into the GFS fight now, as my point is showing sunny skies and a recovery to normal temperatures by the end of the week and going into October. Meanwhile, the King cuts off the midweek ULL and it does a sit-n-spin right over the subforum, leaving most of us with cloudy, showery, cool conditions from Wednesday right into October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 3 hours ago, IWXwx said: As we roll into October, an all-too typical showdown between the ECMWF and the GFS looms. It looks like NWS is buying into the GFS fight now, as my point is showing sunny skies and a recovery to normal temperatures by the end of the week and going into October. Meanwhile, the King cuts off the midweek ULL and it does a sit-n-spin right over the subforum, leaving most of us with cloudy, showery, cool conditions from Wednesday right into October. I'll buy the GFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 I love the subtitle in this thread . Im one of those pumpkin spice people. Hoping for lots of clear, calm days when the foliage is changing in October. Preferred crisp air, but the main thing is to have maximized viewing of natures amazing show, so really hoping for benign weater. Once we hit November, then bring on the nonstop gray skies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 25, 2016 Author Share Posted September 25, 2016 An update from this morning's opening post. The 12z GFS trended toward the Euro in cutting off the late week stacked low, although it's position is over VA rather than Southern IN by Friday evening. Looks like a typical cave job. As you can tell, I'm getting warmed up for winter model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Pattern changes throwing the models for a loop already, imagine that! Can't wait for tracking season model mayhem. Perhaps for once, we'll get organized systems that phase west of us and stay strong instead of needing to cross body parts in hopes the last-minute miracle with happen. One can dream, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 20 hours ago, Angrysummons said: Tropics are going to pump a nice ridge next week. GFS has a Hurricane in Syracuse NY. Euro has Andrew take 2. Should be an interesting next week. I still think out to sea, but we will see. Blocking is strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 First mention of snowflakes for the season in the MPX afternoon disco, for next weekend in the Arrowhead. It's coming. October is such an awesome weather month. Hurricanes, rain storms, snow, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 72 hour rainfall from the cutoff low is "just" 2.55" in Wyandotte, but 3.99" at DTW, and 5.91" at Detroit City! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 59 here at noon. Fall is in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: 72 hour rainfall from the cutoff low is "just" 2.55" in Wyandotte, but 3.99" at DTW, and 5.91" at Detroit City! Nice. You guys needed it. Don't want to carry a drought into winter. September was odd, we recorded 5.39" of rainfall, with 5.02" of that occurring over a 2 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Looks like some warmer times are ahead. Nothing like what we experienced two weeks ago, but some highs in the low 80s certainly can't be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 2 hours ago, LoveSN+ said: Looks like some warmer times are ahead. Nothing like what we experienced two weeks ago, but some highs in the low 80s certainly can't be ruled out. Average highs are now less than 70F roughly north of I-80 so anything well into the 70s or 80s would be solidly above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 73 and not a cloud in the sky today. No wind either. Great autumn afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Been in the upper 60's here all day. Plenty of clouds and drizzle as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Chilly day here as well... low to mid 60s, drizzle, very gloomy. The hummingbird swarm is gone, leaving the yard very quiet. It's definitely Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 What a difference semi-decent mid-level lapse rates make. GEtting a sold non-severe t'storm right now. Even had a few small hailstones mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 12 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: 72 hour rainfall from the cutoff low is "just" 2.55" in Wyandotte, but 3.99" at DTW, and 5.91" at Detroit City! DET has got to be at least pushing 7" of rain now (since Wednesday). Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 hour ago, Powerball said: DET has got to be at least pushing 7" of rain now (since Wednesday). Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Trees are finally starting to turn around here. The drive along the Mississippi was surprisingly colorful earlier today. Crops are quickly getting harvested as well. About half of the cornfields have already been picked, and even the beans are being harvested now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 4 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Trees are finally starting to turn around here. The drive along the Mississippi was surprisingly colorful earlier today. Crops are quickly getting harvested as well. About half of the cornfields have already been picked, and even the beans are being harvested now. Same with the trees here. They are just now starting to show hints of color. I'd say about 80% of the corn/beans are ready, but with the sit-n-spin low hovering for the past few days, it may be mid week before harvesting resumes. A couple of days at or near 80° midweek should have them busy again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 With a high of 80° currently being predicted for FWA on Wednesday, I had to check the records and it's not even close to a record high. It has in fact hit 90° three times in October here: 10/4/1903 95° 10/3/1898 91° 10/4/1951 90° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Interesting little system coming up this Thursday. Looks like Iowa will have a stark contrast of conditions. Severe possible east of I-35 and temp/dews in the upper 70s/60s. A very cold stratiform rain over northwestern Iowa with temps barely above 40 and driving north winds. A week or two later and this setup may have produced some wet snows in that deform zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Euro trying to bring a severe threat into the W parts of the sub-forum with that second vort lobe on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 ..... Upper 30's this morning feels good. The color and weather has been perfect. Should be warm again this week in the 60's! I love warm Octobers. A logging area a couple miles north of my place yesterday. I can go from the Keweenaw to Marquette on power lines pretty much. Superior in the background. sat shot from the 2nd shows the "hier" elevation color nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Nice pics bo, starting to get nice color down my way as well, definitely behind averages for my area but not complaining with the warmer weather. Probably be a peak in the next 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Does anyone have a graphic of when the trees begin to change throughout the country? I have noticed very little color yet, but I am much farther south than y'all and think we usually don't get going until later in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 ^Nice pics Bo. Stuck under a stratus deck for the 3rd day in a row. Kind of early in the season for persistent stratus decks around here. Thursday night is looking pretty stormy around here. Not expecting severe, as that will likely take place further west/south, but could be several non-severe storms racing through later in the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Stuck under the same stratus here in Detroit as well. 64/57 right now so muggy for this time of year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Probably a low probability scenario at this point but the eastern fringes of the subforum should keep an eye on what Matthew does. Not out of the question that there could be a pretty decent rain event should the timing be right with the incoming trough possibly interacting with the hurricane remnants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 12Z Euro still hanging on the idea that the trough is very weak and never phases with Matthew. Considerably different from the GFS and Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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