Matthew

[NWNC2015]

Guantanamo Bay servicemen and families are being evacuated to Florida. No word or public disclosure on where or if the prisoners will be moved. Pretty ****** to leave them there if they know a monster hurricane is likely to hit them head on.

[bigtenfan]

Does anybody know if Accuweather is expecting a direct or near  direct hit on S Florida? Their forecast for late next week wind gust up to 120/130 mph

[pcbjr]

18 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Does anybody know if Accuweather is expecting a direct or near  direct hit on S Florida? Their forecast for late next week wind gust up to 120/130 mph

Doubt it but I'd sure like to see whatever you're seeing - can you post or pm a link?

[bigtenfan]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/fort-lauderdale-fl/33301/daily-weather-forecast/328168?day=8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bigtenfan]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/fort-lauderdale-fl/33301/daily-weather-forecast/328168?day=9

[pcbjr]

2 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/fort-lauderdale-fl/33301/daily-weather-forecast/328168?day=9

Yikes - has to be a typo

[LithiaWx]

37 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Does anybody know if Accuweather is expecting a direct or near  direct hit on S Florida? Their forecast for late next week wind gust up to 120/130 mph

South Florida should go ahead and evacuate.

[bigtenfan]

The weather channel has a slightly different take on it lol

 

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USFL0149:1:US

 

 

 

[FLweather]

7 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

South Florida should go ahead and evacuate.

Yeah esecpically if the block sets up. I personally think things will shift west.

[Avdave]

LOL @ accuweather   the ones that give a 90 day forecast cant even get a 5 day forecast right

[Brick Tamland]

I wonder if hurricanes have a NW trend when we get inside 72 hours on the models like the winter storms usually do.

[downeastnc]

19 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I wonder if hurricanes have a NW trend when we get inside 72 hours on the models like the winter storms usually do.

The path of the storm is being directly influenced by the trough over the central USA on this latest GFS run, it is really fast with this feature and it kicks the storm out to sea. I guarantee the next GFS run is different, chances are the models wont get a good handle on the timing and strength of this feature until Mon/Tues....so until then I suspect the NHC wont make big changes to the track north of the Bahamas....when you see 200 mile jumps in the models run to run you know that they are no where close to having the features correctly figured out. The model runs right now after 72-100 hrs are more or less useless...the S/W energy will be sampled sometime tomorrow night as it gets over land in the NW part of the US, so sometime Monday into Monday night we should (hopefully) see all the models start to converge on a solution....

 

see the trough on the 18Z positive tilt and way back over the central plains so Matt almost makes it onshore in the next few frames

the latest 00Z run has the trough going negative  over Indiana kicking Matt out.....thats a pretty big change for just 6 hrs

[Rjay]

Have you guys checked out the Euro?  Wow lol.

North and South Carolina see wind and a lot of rain on this run.  The storm stalls south to SSE of Cape Hatteras for 24 hours.

[Rjay]

Oz Euro last night vs tonight

[Rjay]

Here's the approach and stall.

[Rjay]

0z vs 6z gfs

[NWNC2015]

6z GFS Hi-Res is a historic blow for North Carolina. One for the record books. Thankfully, not inland like Hazel. Limited impacts to Piedmont Triad for now.

[NWNC2015]

If this was a weaker storm I would want it to go inland. But would rather keep it over eastern NC if its going to turn off the power for a week or two. Needless to say, I won't be tracking this storm at Oak Island its too dangerous.

[NWNC2015]

Nice masters/doctorate thesis available if anyone wants to dive into the "blob" that is constantly beside Matthew and rapid intensification. Sure we will have some papers on that to read about in a few years.

[gwlee7]

2 hours ago, NWNC2015 said:

If this was a weaker storm I would want it to go inland. But would rather keep it over eastern NC if its going to turn off the power for a week or two. Needless to say, I won't be tracking this storm at Oak Island its too dangerous.

What a sweetheart. 

[NWNC2015]

@BigJoeBastardi

EURO NAILED WSW MOVE FROM 5 DAYS OUT, AND SLOWER GFS IS NOW AIMED AT HAITI, NOT JAMAICA. EURO HAD THAT. IN DAY 5 LAND, EURO IS KICKING BUTT

[Jon]

Euro is the model to watch out to 120h, ALL models take a nosedive after that, which is why this graph is only out to 120h. NO SKILL. Trust the ensemble means of both models, particularly the ECMWF.

What people don't see when looking at the Operational 00z Euro, though, is that it curves out to sea and rides IDENTICAL path to the EPS mean. This run, to me, is an outlier. Mets on twitter hyping up the track of the 00z Euro should recognize that. Hurricane season is worse than winter season when it comes to hype, no one likes ensembles and out to sea solutions...they prefer landfalls, devastation, and retweets. Of course, with that said a landfall is clearly NOT off the table...but this is like calling 12" snow in Raleigh 6 days out.

[downeastnc]

6 hours ago, Rjay said:

Have you guys checked out the Euro?  Wow lol.

North and South Carolina see wind and a lot of rain on this run.  The storm stalls south to SSE of Cape Hatteras for 24 hours.

That west shift on the Euro and the GFS 6Z do not feel me with joy....

 

2 minutes ago, Jon said:

Euro is the model to watch out to 120h, ALL models take a nosedive after that, which is why this graph is only out to 120h. NO SKILL. Trust the ensemble means of both models, particularly the ECMWF.

What people don't see when looking at the Operational 00z Euro, though, is that it curves out to sea and rides IDENTICAL path to the EPS mean. This run, to me, is an outlier. Mets on twitter hyping up the track of the 00z Euro should recognize that. Hurricane season is worse than winter season when it comes to hype, no one likes ensembles and out to sea solutions...they prefer landfalls, devastation, and retweets. Of course, with that said a landfall is clearly NOT off the table...but this is like calling 12" snow in Raleigh 6 days out.

 

I think its more a case that its the trend in the models in the long range that you look at not so much the exact low track.....the trend has been towards a landfall or near miss for NC...the shift west by the Euro last night assuming it holds up raises the likely hood that NC sees a actual landfall, versus all the models shifting 400 miles OTS. I guess just like with a winter storm if all the models agreed with the miss 2-300 miles off the coast no one would doubt it for a second in the 5-6 day range, I agree though that much can change, and until the models ingest the data once the S/W gets onshore the NW US its hard to take that trough timing with more than a grain of salt....still we are only 5-6 days out now so the fact the models are converging slowly on a possible track and that track is on or just off the NC coast is concerning. 

[Brick Tamland]

 Sounds like we just have to wait and watch, and it is going to be a close call between out to sea and landfall. Greg Fishel at WRAL said this:

MATTHEW'S ONLY CHANCE TO MAKE LANDFALL ON OUR COAST DEPENDENT ON SOMETHING THAT HASN'T DEVELOPED YET

With Major Hurricane Matthew making its much anticipated turn to the north, the only way our coast takes a direct hit is if something else shoves it back toward the west. Matthew's current longitude is 74.3 W and Cape Hatteras is 75.5 W. Matthew will in all likelihood turn northward and perhaps even a bit east of north in the next 24 hours. Were that trend to continue, rough surf and gusty winds but no landfall. However there are some indications that an upper level ridge will build over the mid-Atlantic and northeast states by Tue or Wed. If this happens, Matthew would turn back to the Northwest. So here are the main considerations:

1. How far east is Matthew in about 48 hours?
2. Does that ridge over the northeast develop mid week and shove Matthew back to the west?
3. Even if #2 happens, will Matthew be too far east at the start of that process for it to matter?
4. Oh and one other thing. Strong hurricanes have been known to build ridges to their northeast due to the transport northward of air warmed by condensation. This would also result in a more westward track.

No easy answers yet-stay tuned!

[ldub23]

Matts north turn got delayed as its  moving a touch south of west right  now.

[yotaman]

4 hours ago, NWNC2015 said:

If this was a weaker storm I would want it to go inland. But would rather keep it over eastern NC if its going to turn off the power for a week or two. Needless to say, I won't be tracking this storm at Oak Island its too dangerous.

Hey, some of us live in Eastern NC and definitely do not want this thing over us and do not want to lose power like I did with Irene. I lost it for 4 days with that storm.

[Jon]

1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

That west shift on the Euro and the GFS 6Z do not feel me with joy....

 

I think its more a case that its the trend in the models in the long range that you look at not so much the exact low track.....the trend has been towards a landfall or near miss for NC...the shift west by the Euro last night assuming it holds up raises the likely hood that NC sees a actual landfall, versus all the models shifting 400 miles OTS. I guess just like with a winter storm if all the models agreed with the miss 2-300 miles off the coast no one would doubt it for a second in the 5-6 day range, I agree though that much can change, and until the models ingest the data once the S/W gets onshore the NW US its hard to take that trough timing with more than a grain of salt....still we are only 5-6 days out now so the fact the models are converging slowly on a possible track and that track is on or just off the NC coast is concerning. 

I agree on some points, trends are still worth something. What could be concerning, maybe, is that the GFS is steadfast on way west several runs in a row while it's ensemble mean is way east. But, until spread decreases or the means adjust west, I don't buy it. Lots of movers in this forecast and that's what the ensemble members are adjusting on, giving the incredible spread as seen on the Euro EPS track map with all 50 members. I can't put that much faith in a model (GFS) that scores incredibly low in track forecasts this far out, I just can't. I want to see the Euro hone in onto a solution and trend, and I feel we won't see that until it's past Cuba.

Take a look at the GFS OP & GEFS tracks from 12z yesterday compared to 06z today. Virtually identical.

The issue is if one would look at 18z 00z 06z runs left to right, they'd see a huge eastern trend...but when you look at the full 24 hours, there is no trend. The tracks are essentially wobbling - and just when you think the spread and deviation minimizes, it widens with the next run once again.

I mean, check out what it spit out on the 00z run yesterday - mean is basically 15 miles off of OBX, I thought for sure the GFS was onto something, nope, it corrected west with the 06z run yesterday. It has been correcting west with each run even in the 48 hour track path also, Jamaica was hyped and largely in the path, now it's Haiti.

[WeatherNC]

The Euro was one of the few models threading the needle between Cuba and Haiti, the GFS is now on board with a similar track that does not make landfall in eastern Cuba.  For what its worth, the NAM in the 72-84hr range yesterday was showing a track though the Windward Passage, like the Euro, while the GFS was too far west.  

[gwlee7]

51 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Hey, some of us live in Eastern NC and definitely do not want this thing over us and do not want to lose power like I did with Irene. I lost it for 4 days with that storm.

Not to mention the bad flooding that has just happened in the NE counties of Bertie and Hertford.  

[downeastnc]

14 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

The Euro was one of the few models threading the needle between Cuba and Haiti, the GFS is now on board with a similar track that does not make landfall in eastern Cuba.  For what its worth, the NAM in the 72-84hr range yesterday was showing a track though the Windward Passage, like the Euro, while the GFS was too far west.  

For us the main issue is the trough in the plains, how fast/slow and deep it gets if its slow and deep then Matt will come on in, the latest GFS is 150 miles offshore the GFS seems to go back and forth every run just off the coast or just on the coast.....what will concern me is if it starts to run a few NC/SC border hits etc....right now it seems like worst case would be MHX to KDH which is bad but if it was 75 miles further west it would put a lot of bigger cities in the way, Wilmington, New Bern, Greenville etc....Hwy 17 west should not get hammered to hard with the track the GS has when it does show a hit. 

 

44 minutes ago, Jon said:

I agree on some points, trends are still worth something. What could be concerning, maybe, is that the GFS is steadfast on way west several runs in a row while it's ensemble mean is way east. But, until spread decreases or the means adjust west, I don't buy it. Lots of movers in this forecast and that's what the ensemble members are adjusting on, giving the incredible spread as seen on the Euro EPS track map with all 50 members. I can't put that much faith in a model (GFS) that scores incredibly low in track forecasts this far out, I just can't. I want to see the Euro hone in onto a solution and trend, and I feel we won't see that until it's past Cuba.

Take a look at the GFS OP & GEFS tracks from 12z yesterday compared to 06z today. Virtually identical.

The issue is if one would look at 18z 00z 06z runs left to right, they'd see a huge eastern trend...but when you look at the full 24 hours, there is no trend. The tracks are essentially wobbling - and just when you think the spread and deviation minimizes, it widens with the next run once again.

I mean, check out what it spit out on the 00z run yesterday - mean is basically 15 miles off of OBX, I thought for sure the GFS was onto something, nope, it corrected west with the 06z run yesterday. It has been correcting west with each run even in the 48 hour track path also, Jamaica was hyped and largely in the path, now it's Haiti.

I agree a landfall is less likely than a miss even if its a close one....however the fact the models shift 200 miles tells me its all about the trough in the central plains.....the outlier west runs are the ones that have that he slowest deepest out west, the Euro came west a lot because it moved towards a slwer deeper trough as well....it might not be enough to get a land fall but the chances Matt gets close to the NC coast are pretty good....