Stormsfury Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Its turning out right off the SC/NC border....yep hooks a hard right OTS off NC basically runs 100 miles offshore for the entire SE coast.... Reminds me of what Janet just recently did. Seasonal trend has got me a bit concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 interesting to see if the 0z gfs will initialize the strength correctly tonight, 18z was off, and I bet that will induce a further south-west threat down the east coast (hint Florida) maybe not so much Carolinas it will be a wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Don't recall a model at day 6'ish spitting out this low a min slp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 minute ago, NWNC2015 said: interesting to see if the 0z gfs will initialize the strength correctly tonight, 18z was off, and I bet that will induce a further south-west threat down the east coast (hint Florida) maybe not so much Carolinas it will be a wait and see Cleo - see my map a page back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 15 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Its turning out right off the SC/NC border....yep hooks a hard right OTS off NC basically runs 100 miles offshore for the entire SE coast.... no goes on for a east coast landfall in new england as usual actually 2 landfalls up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 There's a piece of tropical energy to the ENE of Matthew that will follow it along it's path over the next few days... You can see it on the IR imagery to the NE of matthew and on the UL charts on the GFS/EURO. Earlier the models were factoring this in down the road, creating a weakness in the ridge allowing Matthew to turn northeast sharply off of NC. That feature is starting to trend towards dissipation over the next few days. This allows the ridge to build back in over Matthew after the current ULL over the midwest is swept out to sea. This bends it back to the WNW towards southern florida. Based on trends, it wouldn't suprise me to see the models flip towards a strong bend WNW on the 00z package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: There's a piece of tropical energy to the ENE of Matthew that will follow it along it's path over the next few days... You can see it on the IR imagery to the NE of matthew and on the UL charts on the GFS/EURO. Earlier the models were factoring this in down the road, creating a weakness in the ridge allowing Matthew to turn northeast sharply off of NC. That feature is starting to trend towards dissipation over the next few days. This allows the ridge to build back in over Matthew after the current ULL over the midwest is swept out to sea. This bends it back to the WNW towards southern florida. Based on trends, it wouldn't suprise me to see the models flip towards a strong bend WNW on the 00z package. Thank you for articulating my humble attempts :~) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Experimental FIM model has a landfall on the NC/SC line....this model is suppose to replace the GFS model according to NOAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Take a look at satellite guys. Absolutely gorgeous storm, already stronger one would guess from the 5PM update. The cloud tops before nightfall are blossoming around the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: Experimental FIM model has a landfall on the NC/SC line....this model is suppose to replace the GFS model according to NOAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 10 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Thank you for articulating my humble attempts :~) Lol my attempts are often humble too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Looks eerily like Hurricane Hazel.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 6 minutes ago, Shawn said: Take a look at satellite guys. Absolutely gorgeous storm, already stronger one would guess from the 5PM update. The cloud tops before nightfall are blossoming around the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 This Recon. is showing 941.1mb right now and pretty nutty windspeeds. Btw, I would direct you guys over to the main forum/tropical forum for this storm. These guys are top-notch over there with the informatiion! https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48950-category-4-hurricane-matthew/?page=17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just like with winter storms, observations are lacking in the north-east Pacific, which throws off upper level features. - Dr Masters on track disagreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 37 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: Experimental FIM model has a landfall on the NC/SC line....this model is suppose to replace the GFS model according to NOAA. GFS has it very close to the east coast, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Wowza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 150mph maximum sustained winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 150 mph winds now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 As long as nothing happens with this eyewall, we are looking at Cat 5 if not by 2am, tomorrow morning. It's been a while! Between 5 and 8PM, it went from 140 to 150mph. From what I understand, night-time is the best chance for strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 7 minutes ago, Shawn said: As long as nothing happens with this eyewall, we are looking at Cat 5 if not by 2am, tomorrow morning. It's been a while! Between 5 and 8PM, it went from 140 to 150mph. From what I understand, night-time is the best chance for strengthening. Could not agree more - and only 7 mph from Cat 5 - this guy may decide to make his own journey wherever he wants, and the GOM, though not likely, may be where he decides to drink, bed down and then be a bandit .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 26 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Could not agree more - and only 7 mph from Cat 5 - this guy may decide to make his own journey wherever he wants, and the GOM, though not likely, may be where he decides to drink, bed down and then be a bandit .... Well. Looks like Cat 5 may be coming by 11PM if not an early advisory. Whew @ that latest recon. The pressure wasn't down to "941" or whatever.. but the winds are there. Crossposting this. Quote 000930 1327N 07202W 6974 02689 9464 +169 +149 041077 086 138 001 03 001000 1328N 07203W 6993 02697 9580 +130 //// 043105 114 143 045 01 001030 1329N 07204W 6960 02822 9699 +119 //// 049131 138 142 047 05 The bolded on the left are FL winds and on the right are Surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Good grief...160+mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Crossposting my post from the main forums over here: Quote For those that do not have these sites, they are amazing for this tropical stuff http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/ (great for imagery, other info in one place click "Matthew") http://tropicalatlantic.com/ (faster and better looking Recon raw data, good information too otherwise) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ (pretty recon maps, easy data to read and a good model tracking section) http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ (my first go to to get an overall view of what's happening with invests, storms) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Its nasty for sure, still so many things that will steer this thing are up in the air its almost a waste of time to track each run ( kinda like winter storms) but that wont stop all of us from picking each run apart....its what we do. I really do not like the Hazel analogs, but this thing would need to be 125 MPH at landfall to rival that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 again - look at Cleo ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 early 00z tracks look west, hugging the se coast. LEK may be on the money with his se florida landfall forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: early 00z tracks look west, hugging the se coast. LEK may be on the money with his se florida landfall forecast. Lots of tropical eye candy on those early cycle tracks and intensity. I have to had it to Alan, he has done a great job on the model center putting together all of those graphics. There are a few early models that are off the intensity chart after 12 hrs and you don't see them again until 196hrs, meaning 8 days at Cat 5. 0z initialized at 135kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Lots of tropical eye candy on those early cycle tracks and intensity. I have to had it to Alan, he has done a great job on the model center putting together all of those graphics. There are a few early models that are off the intensity chart after 12 hrs and you don't see them again until 196hrs, meaning 8 days at Cat 5. 0z initialized at 135kts Yeah I guess I need to break down and the pony up for the models..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 10 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: early 00z tracks look west, hugging the se coast. LEK may be on the money with his se florida landfall forecast. LEK made a good call earlier with his 140mph, and that map he made earlier I think people thought was kind of a troll..... he has a good reputation though. I'm looking forward to him posting more thoughts about that track if he was serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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