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Matthew


NWNC2015

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Winds have really relaxed up here in the northern Coastal Plain and thank goodness, just did a little drive around and many roads have water across them and most creeks are like rivers... haven't seen this much water around since Floyd (not as bad of course) and amazed no more trees down here.  Really think and hope those backside gust the HRRR is showing will not make it up this far.  Those of you down east are really in for it for a few hours it would seem

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With Matthew heading almost due east (only a slight northern component), and center of circulation being off shore south of Wilmington, I suspect the high wind gusts on the backside will be mainly from rdu south and east. But no one in the eastern half of NC is out of the woods till at least dawn I would think.

Maybe Matt is making a b-line for the gulf stream!

 

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5 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

With Matthew heading almost due east (only a slight northern component), and center of circulation being off shore south of Wilmington, I suspect the high wind gusts on the backside will be mainly from rdu south and east. But no one in the eastern half of NC is out of the woods till at least dawn I would think.

Maybe Matt is making a b-line for the gulf stream!

 

Well, the short range models and the HWRF show the easterly motion continuing for a couple more hours, with a bend to the ENE after like 10 pm. We'll see if that verifies...

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Wow at the wording of the Flash Flood Warning for Wake County, PDS with an exclamation point.  Lights starting to flicker here, just took a Jeb walk out back, 2-3' of water in the backyard once it drops off, creak has to be close to 10', wife and I agreed this is the highest we have seen it.

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this thread is getting more quiet and based on the radar and outage maps/wind gusts i have a feeling some board members are continuing to lose power, because I doubt the intrigue in this storm is gone.  it is also being grossly under-covered on cable news (not a political statement, this is just a very significant ongoing event for life and property and I'm shocked by the lack of coverage across all major cable news outlets).  I imagine down there you guys are getting some great coverage from local affiliates, they really have to be relied upon now.  

 

i usually say stay safe but i feel like anyone posting in this thread has enough weather sense to know what to do.  it's those that don't have any interest or knowledge of the weather that usually suffer the consequences of these events.

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4 minutes ago, e46and2 said:

this thread is getting more quiet and based on the radar and outage maps/wind gusts i have a feeling some board members are continuing to lose power, because I doubt the intrigue in this storm is gone.  it is also being grossly under-covered on cable news (not a political statement, this is just a very significant ongoing event for life and property and I'm shocked by the lack of coverage across all major cable news outlets).  I imagine down there you guys are getting some great coverage from local affiliates, they really have to be relied upon now.  

 

i usually say stay safe but i feel like anyone posting in this thread has enough weather sense to know what to do.  it's those that don't have any interest or knowledge of the weather that usually suffer the consequences of these events.

WRAL coverage from Raleigh is compelling TV right now... I have it up on my TV screen.

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Looks like part of the center is over Carteret County now. Storm is about 50 miles north of where the models said it would be. Heaviest rains are about the same. They said 8-10" for me and I have only had 1.42" so far. Points west and north are getting hammered.

 

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9 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Looks like part of the center is over Carteret County now. Storm is about 50 miles north of where the models said it would be. Heaviest rains are about the same. They said 8-10" for me and I have only had 1.42" so far. Points west and north are getting hammered.

 

Center of circulation is off shore, about 45 miles or so east southeast of Cape Fear.

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Rough out there, power grid here is tough....only 5k people without power out of 100k in Greenville....last hr has been windy probably a few 60+ out there.....

08 20:05 N 41 G 56 2.00 Rain and Windy BKN013 OVC021 64 64     100% NA NA 29.56 NA      
08 19:45 N 45 G 59 1.25 Heavy Rain and Windy OVC013 64 64     100% NA NA 29.55 NA      
08 19:25 N 33 G 48 1.25 Heavy Rain and Windy OVC010 66 66     100% NA NA 29.58 NA      
08 19:05 N 35 G 51 1.50 Heavy Rain and Windy OVC012 68 68     100% NA NA 29.58 NA    

People being rescued from cars around town as well 

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6 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Yeah I see that now with the higher resolution radar. Wonder why all of the heavy rain is so much farther north of the center?

When Matt encountered land, the structure started to blow apart, and it encountered the cooler drier air across much of NC enhancing the rain. Matt has begun transition to extratropical.

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Kinda backed off here, but the HRRR has that on the latest loop then it ramps up again with 60-80 mph gust for a few hrs around midnight.......surely thats not gona happen

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_ncep_jet:&runTime=2016100823&plotName=gust_t610m&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR Model Fields - Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t6

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