NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 this is just a totally new solution on the euro altogether. its eventually going to get left behind one run (stuck under the ridge) and I don't wanna see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 hour 240 end of the run it is moving SOUTH back into the Bahamas as the exit path is gone. Also @RyanMaue ECMWF 12z init of Hurricane Matthew malfunctioned. Oddly shaped MSLP field which fixes itself by tau +6 but not sure about track impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 So here is the 00Z Euro with our hurricane existing stage right way north..... And here is the 12Z that just ran with a high blocking the storm.....I would guess if this played out the Euro goes due east from this plot or stalls and the move NW as the blocking high shifts offshore and we get landfall in the Carolinas....crazy change for just 12hrs considering it is the Euro...just shows that this thing is a total crap shoot at this point and you know the NHC sees these runs and think well damn thanks a lot for nothing Euro....luckily they have several days before this thing is a threat to anywhere in the US so hopefully by then the models get a handle on it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 ^ I wouldn't be so bullish to say or even guess it would go north-west into the Carolinas with the ridge that strong to his west...it could just as easily or perhaps even more likely go south-west into Florida's direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 there's so much on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Matthew now has an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Latest recon pass found 130+mph surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 I've gotta ask again - with a storm this strong - how much influence does the ridge (or other such dynamics) have on where he ultimately tracks? Do storms this strong "overcome" steering dynamics? I'm at work, on a conference call and can't research; I know the answer, just can't recall it right now. Some kind response - most appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 hour ago, NWNC2015 said: ^ I wouldn't be so bullish to say or even guess it would go north-west into the Carolinas with the ridge that strong to his west...it could just as easily or perhaps even more likely go south-west into Florida's direction. I'd be real suspicious of the euro run until it duplicates it a few times. Those runs are like running a winter storm from Miami to a Midwest cutter......hardly believable until more runs can confirm the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 13 minutes ago, pcbjr said: I've gotta ask again - with a storm this strong - how much influence does the ridge (or other such dynamics) have on where he ultimately tracks? Do storms this strong "overcome" steering dynamics? I'm at work, on a conference call and can't research; I know the answer, just can't recall it right now. Some kind response - most appreciated! major influence still think Joaquin last year.however storms like Isabel who were annular can have minds of their own and "pump the ridge" and create their own environment.matthew isn't even close to that even if he reaches cat5 current appearance says no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 9 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: major influence still think Joaquin last year.however storms like Isabel who were annular can have minds of their own and "pump the ridge" and create their own environment.matthew isn't even close to that even if he reaches cat5 current appearance says no Thanks - the annular part is what was escaping me - now back to the conference call ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Cat4 , 140mph @ 5PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 NHC forecast discussion is interesting. Not going to paste it or the parts that stand out to me; to save jumping around from web page to web page, if anyone's interested, here's the link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/302051.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 12 minutes ago, Shawn said: Cat4 , 140mph @ 5PM. Monster cane, dangerous storm for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 10 minutes ago, pcbjr said: NHC forecast discussion is interesting. Not going to paste it or the parts that stand out to me; to save jumping around from web page to web page, if anyone's interested, here's the link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/302051.shtml Not bashing, but just earlier they said no strengthening forecast for a while. Next update comes along with that discussion and the Cat4 status. I guess they are just saying "who knows?". They note that the modeling is doing horribly with intensification. Eyewall replacement cycle will get it here eventually, just don't know when. I know one thing, Jamaica should watch out right now. They now have their hurricane watches, and I wouldn't want to be anywhere near that place with a potential Cat 4 or stronger storm coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Recent dropsonde found 127kt surface winds, about 30 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 I'm not convinced on the hard right turn. If I lived in that God awful place called South Florida, I'd be really watching my back door .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 BTW - Some real good discussion going on in the tropical page on the main forum ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 euro showing over 50" of rain for the Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 gfs tick west at 126, may come too close to comfort for South Carolina next few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: gfs tick west at 126, may come too close to comfort for South Carolina next few frames I'll lay you a beer to a beer that it ticks west more with later runs .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 I wonder if this things will try to tap dance around southern Jamaica like we've seen many major hurricane do in the past. Should be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 oh dear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Plane finding 180 mph winds pretty close to the surface, wont take much more to get this to Cat 5.....should see a ERC sometime tonight....then maybe a bigger eye it will weaken some but probably expand its windfield quite a bit.....go from a smaller Cat 4/5 to a bigger Cat 3/4 then watch out Jamaica and Cuba.... 5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I wonder if this things will try to tap dance around southern Jamaica like we've seen many major hurricane do in the past. Should be interesting to watch. Lets hope for their sake it does....gonna have to look but I can remember the last time a Cat 4/5 crossed right over Jamaica.....so far this new GFS run keeping this thing further west right off Florida could be a lot closer to a ENC landfall.....it has that great lakes low much further north this run so thats why its closer....this thing is gonna be a headache for NHC and emergency managers all over the SE coast.... Hurricane Glibert in 1988 nailed Jamaica..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 This 18z GFS was WAY too close to making a landfall here in SC. Still running, could hit elsewhere... edit looks like its gonna scrape SC/NC coasts. Rain well inland to CLT, CAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 way more west .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Its turning out right off the SC/NC border....yep hooks a hard right OTS off NC basically runs 100 miles offshore for the entire SE coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 nice wedge this run for NC, little rain all the way to the mountains from Matthew, temps locked 50/60s for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Cleo, anyone .... (??) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.