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Matthew


NWNC2015

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TWC just talked about the wind gradient, low level steep lapse rate, wake low type event on the backside of the rain shield and their model showed gust  of 50-60+ mph from I-95 east in SC/NC much later tonight like 8-12pm....even RDU area had gust to 50....they showed a map with the temp gradient and how it was warmer west and east of the area and how it slowly moved east...

This is the HRRR 10 M wind gust maps a little bigger for you guys this is the current run and these values are for 8-10 hrs from now as the center is moving out to the east....this is in knts so Hugo and the folks in NE SC would be getting hammered if this is right....its for about 9 hrs from now

HRRR 2.gif 

 

Then central and eastern NC under the gun for several hrs with hurricane force gust possible....its seems extreme to me but all the local NWS and TWC are starting to play it up and that large of a area of winds like this would be rough...

HRRR 2.gifHRRR 1.gif

HRRR 3.gif

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5 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Agree. Still figure 5 inches plus. Sure hope we don't get a foot! Thats a heck of a run. I like to road cycle out west of town, Thelma Road area.

Looks like rains are building east on radar now and still have that out west to eventually come through....

I just saw some local news updates and still only forecasting 1-2 in western sections, I think they will be adjusting totals all day,have real concerns about flooding and widespread

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31 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Beware this....from ILM 

"For several days the GFS model has been indicating as the center of Matthew passes south of Cape Fear, rain-cooled air across interior North Carolina would get pulled south behind the storm. As lapse rates steepen in the lowest 1500-2000 feet of the atmosphere, winds of 60-80 mph may get transported down through this mixed layer to the surface. For many locations north of Myrtle Beach this may be the strongest winds we see from the entire event, and could pose quite a shock as the system will seem to be on its way out to sea by then."

You may be in store for another 3-4 hr period of strong downburst type winds if this happens, I guess its pretty much looking like the western edge of the rain shield could "wake low"...

This is certainly something to watch and I am concerned. Could be power outages for many of us inland. But fascinating scientifically.

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TORNADO WARNING
NCC133-081545-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0014.161008T1517Z-161008T1545Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1117 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN ONSLOW COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT

* AT 1117 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SNEADS FERRY...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF CAMP
  LEJEUNE CENTER...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 70 MPH.
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Pressure still falling.. 992.55 hPa

Winds (again) Steady 30~35 mph, gusting to 50mph, not much Rain, plenty of wind ATM..

Lots of Local Personal Weather Obs Stations & WebCams are going "Offline", I'm assuming Power outages....

My Power while I still have it, is Flickering ALOT..

I do have a Small Gen Set....  It's not very big, enough to keep My Fridge going & a few lights,, So I'll keep posting as long as I can..

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2 minutes ago, SENC said:

Pressure still falling.. 992.55 hPa

Winds (again) Steady 30~35 mph, gusting to 50mph, not much Rain, plenty of wind ATM..

Lots of Local Personal Weather Obs Stations & WebCams are going "Offline", I'm assuming Power outages....

My Power while I still have it, is Flickering ALOT..

I do have a Small Gen Set....  It's not very big, enough to keep My Fridge going & a few lights,, So I'll keep posting as long as I can..

Looks like the coc heading right for you, rapid pressure falls are a great indicator of where the center will go.....  hope you stay online long enough to keep us updated

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This too going to be problematic as the day progresses....

 

TORNADO WARNING
NCC031-081615-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0015.161008T1543Z-161008T1615Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1143 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN CARTERET COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1215 PM EDT

* AT 1143 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT LIGHTHOUSE...
  OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF HARKERS ISLAND...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 45 MPH.
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36 minutes ago, metwannabe said:

Here's a link to the Duke Energy outage map for the Carolina's, nothing to extreme yet but those numbers will no doubt be going up, hope people are prepare to be without power for a few days

http://outagemap.duke-energy.com/ncsc/default.html

Had to fire-up My Little gen-set, It does, (thanks to the Big guy upstairs), I can power My computer & internet stuff..

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Hey all... just checking in from the Triad... have about 2.5" of rain so far since last evening... it's absolutely pouring right now and wind is gusting between 25 and 30 mph i would say... Sometime during the night Guilford was put under a Flash Flood Watch which surprised me... Also seeing the posts about the wind this evening... what would we be looking like in the GSO area as far as that is concerned?

Side note: my best friends mom lives in Lumberton and is reporting water half way up car doors on the street outside her house...

Stay safe everyone! and a big thank you to downeastnc, etc.  for keeping all up to date these last few days!

 

Regards

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Surprised no one is talking about the extra tropical look Matthew is getting...this means winds will spread out further west tonight...as well as the heavier rains shift to the north-west side....not the typical pure tropical eyewall strong north-east quad hurricane we were dealing with further south. 

So just east of Charlotte to the east side of Greensboro....Raleigh......a lot of these areas may be in for a surprise. 

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5 minutes ago, norcarolinian said:

Hey all... just checking in from the Triad... have about 2.5" of rain so far since last evening... it's absolutely pouring right now and wind is gusting between 25 and 30 mph i would say... Sometime during the night Guilford was put under a Flash Flood Watch which surprised me... Also seeing the posts about the wind this evening... what would we be looking like in the GSO area as far as that is concerned?

Side note: my best friends mom lives in Lumberton and is reporting water half way up car doors on the street outside her house...

Stay safe everyone! and a big thank you to downeastnc, etc.  for keeping all up to date these last few days!

 

Regards

I think the HRRR has us gusting close to 40 mph but that's probably a worst case scenario type of thing.

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