Cold Rain Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Rain just started here. Anybody heard from Solak lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Rob Fowler just said that the eye could go as close as 12 miles from downtown Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Well the outer edge of Matthew has made it here,Hermine got within 5 miles last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 This is too funy. Watching the Weather Channel. They show the continued forecast with the loop out to sea (though moved north) but their future rain forecast shows the Norfolk/Hampton Roads area of VA with flooding. Hmmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 For ColdRain...0z RGEM. 4-6" across the triangle with 10"+ east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Motion is due north, it should start to move a little E of N soon but CHS looks right in the crosshairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 chswx: Folly Pier at 50 MPH with gusts to 60. IoP Pier at 48 MPH with gusts to 57. Tropical storm conditions continue at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 If you follow the storm precip total map from the radar site and assuming no track changes it looks like Hilton Head is lined up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Everything has been "lined up" since West Palm Beach LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 2 hours ago, downeastnc said: So your skilled in the art of weather, so I will ask you.....what do you make of the ILM talk earlier of low level lapse rates causing mixing in the rain shield.. We noticed with Hurricane Hermine last month that the strongest winds of that event occurred on the backside of the storm within a region where heavy rain fell into drier air, causing evaporational cooling and a subsequent steep low-level lapse rates to develop. The same type of event could occur Saturday night on the backside of Matthew as drier air becomes entrained beneath the western periphery of the heavy rain shield. 00z GFS soundings valid over Florence and Myrtle Beach show steep lapse rates developing from the surface up to about 1500 feet AGL Saturday evening, with winds of 60-75 mph getting dumped down into this mixed layer from aloft. This kind of detail is not currently in our forecasts, but I would not be surprised at all to see a region of exceptionally strong northerly winds develop Saturday evening behind Matthew. This same region of strong northerly winds might arrive in Wilmington after midnight. I know the models really pop a 850 wind field over central and eastern SC/NC as the low swings SE of us....you think that is a legit threat, Hermine ended up giving us gust to 45-50+ and she had a whole let less to work with than Matt is bringing to the party. These are some pretty sick 850's and all the models agree this area of 850's will develop like this.. It's possible. As Matthew get's further north it will continue to lose tropical characteristics and the windfield will expand. I'm assuming theyre saying once the hurricane get's east of the NC coast, or SE, the northern fetch will draw in drier air which will increase sfc evaporational cooling/increase lapse rates, in effect mixing down the strong winds aloft at 900 to 850mb. The skew t for PVG tomorrow night on the GFS does sorta show this. I'm not sure you can accurately judge this will happen for sure. It's a very mesoscale event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Just now, LMA1973 said: Everything has been "lined up" since West Palm Beach LOL I kind of agree, especially if you're talking about the main thread in the new tropical forum, but it's going to take a pretty sudden shift for that northern eyewall to not come ashore somewhere south of Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 5 minutes ago, Dunkman said: I kind of agree, especially if you're talking about the main thread in the new tropical forum, but it's going to take a pretty sudden shift for that northern eyewall to not come ashore somewhere south of Charleston. I feel ya. It will be the same shift that made it miss Cape Canaveral, Daytona, Jacksonville, Savannah and next up-Charleston. Maybe it will this time, but my money isnt on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 39 minutes ago, sctvman said: Really gusting now. Gotta be gusting in 50s here now on James Island. Getting sustained 25-30 mph up here with gusts around 40mph. Had one power surge earlier as well. Torrent of rains at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 4 minutes ago, LMA1973 said: I feel ya. It will be the same shift that made it miss Daytona, Jacksonville, Savannah and next up-Charleston. Maybe it will this time, but my money isnt on it. Nah, most of that was just weenie wishcasting. But we'll know for sure soon enough. And I'm not convinced it will actually make an official landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, LMA1973 said: I feel ya. It will be the same shift that made it miss Daytona, Jacksonville, Savannah and next up-Charleston. Maybe it will this time, but my money isnt on it. yea i think we get landfall with this soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 That last radar graphic was good, but I felt it hard on the eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summey Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Landfall @ high tide looks likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Got to hand it to the camera man at the Folly Beach location on TWC - he knows how to frame and line up shots to show the weather features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 8-10" radar estimates now over coastal GA. The pain train continues too. Areas wil clear 15" easy if these estimates are correct. Landfall still looks like HH to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 The great wall of shetley in full effect... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 not going to be good, eye looks to be headed a bit west of chs, onshore winds will be pushing crazy amounts of water onshore. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=clx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 I wish you guys would include more central Va / RIC in your graphs and discussion since we are apart of the MA. We get lost here b/w the MA and SE and get very little information for this area. You know, we still get weather here and would like to be included in graphs and tracking. Hope you will include this area and if so , I thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Worst case scenario for our area. Only had a couple blips of power off so far on James Island, but this won't last as the winds get stronger. Our neighborhood barely had any water during the flood last year, but a mile or two away had major flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Especially Mappy and your very informative precipitation map would be great!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Well, I hope to all catching up in the AM will read and maybe consider this area of Va to start including in discussion as well as maps to view. Night all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Looks like the eye has wobbled west of due north in the last few frames...that should put Edisto, Kiawah, up to Charleston under the gun with the ocean storm surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Looks like everyone has gone to sleep tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 The big day for GA SC will be tomorrow am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 Just now, Angela T said: The big day for GA SC will be tomorrow am. LF looks to be in 2-3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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