sctvman Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 A friend on John's Island says the tide is already 3" higher than normal. And there's still many hours till the heart of storm hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: Euro is the last man up. Will be interesting to see if it stays south and continues the looping scenario. Amateur, You know theres still two models left out that have to come on board (Lookout French model & Bastardi JMA). And by the way heard Basstardi on hannity radio program on way home yesterday throwing out watch western Gulf latter next week. Just passing along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 What a difference an hour away makes - I clicked to refresh the Jacksonville area flood gauges and all the greens went Yellow or Red. http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=JAX NOAA Tidal Gauge at Mayport reported the 2nd highest water level ever here - behind only the Oct 1898 hurricane. They're already ahead of Hurricanes Dora (1964) and Jeanne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Pretty legit cane conditions last several hrs in St Augustine...nothing earth shattering but I am sure the tree damage is extensive and thats what does the majority of the damage to homes in these storms....trees falling on homes and cars....gusting to 90 mph.... http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sauf1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Pretty legit cane conditions last several hrs in St Augustine...nothing earth shattering but I am sure the tree damage is extensive and thats what does the majority of the damage to homes in these storms....trees falling on homes and cars....gusting to 90 mph.... http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sauf1 I was just there in June (first time ever visiting, nephew got married there), beautiful historic town.... Really hate to hear/see what it's like right now. Hope the damage will be minimal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 40 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Amateur, You know theres still two models left out that have to come on board (Lookout French model & Bastardi JMA). And by the way heard Basstardi on hannity radio program on way home yesterday throwing out watch western Gulf latter next week. Just passing along. Lol I totally forgot about the French model! I thought the JMA was out earlier than the Euro? I need to look at that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 18z nam looks to keep the system a little stronger with a little tighter precip shield to the NW on this run. Less precip for central NC I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summey Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 check out the upper level winds/cloud interactions in southern Miss and eastern Kentucky, Tenn. That front is going to start pushing soon I think. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATRAPID/satloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 4km NAM making landfall just north of Charleston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, metwannabe said: 4km NAM making landfall just north of Charleston Yep, rides just inland on the coast all the way up to NC/SC border. A little quicker this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Yep, rides just inland on the coast all the way up to NC/SC border. A little quicker this run. Then slows to a crawl and looks to turn east around Myrtle Beach, might not get as far north this run.... still dumping a ton of rain in Central and Eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 hour ago, colawx said: Stormsfury- will you be posting observations/your thoughts throughout the night? Don't know.. Did a video for my channel earlier..might try to vlog a bit but I do expect to lose power during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, metwannabe said: 4km NAM making landfall just north of Charleston yeah thats ugly if it goes NE from there...... here is a video from my parents neighborhood after Irene, the official high gust was 73, it doesnt take a big storm to do a lot of tree damage, the video was on a crappy phone so you cant see the huge number of trees down in the woods, or on the house when we stop to go under the tree but in this little neighborhood alone 6 houses had trees on them.....gust to 60-70 for several hrs will wreck the power grid as well...the house on the hill is my folks and we sat in the carport and watched the storm....its a awesome storm spot big trees all around but none close enough to get the house.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 NAM's still have the sudden sharp east turn....the Ukie, GFS and cane models have smoothed that turn out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 I swear the NAM can do some wonky things when it gets past 30 hours... yesterday it showed it close to Ga/SC border then it showed it jumping around east/north/east, seems to do that each run in it's "long range" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, downeastnc said: NAM's still have the sudden sharp east turn....the Ukie, GFS and cane models have smoothed that turn out..... Yeah not sure I buy that, I mean if the steering flow turns it east then why does it still want to stair step it around the NC border, looks like it would either continue NE or turn east but not east than NE as it keeps showing.... maybe just seems different from the models you just referenced That abrupt east turn did cut down on rainfall totals for Central NC somewhat, shifts heaviest axis back east/se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 So after that crazy abrupt turn east/southeast it then turns NE and is closer to Hatteras this run, much weaker obviously.... looks weird when you loop it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, metwannabe said: So after that crazy abrupt turn east/southeast it then turns NE and is closer to Hatteras this run, much weaker obviously.... looks weird when you loop it lol Not sure I like the lower totals. I'm barely on the 6" line now. Guess we'll have to wait for the RGEM. Seriously, that wobbling is weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Not sure I like the lower totals. I'm barely on the 6" line now. Guess we'll have to wait for the RGEM. Seriously, that wobbling is weird. Yep not enough to settle the dust your way The NAM has done that wobbling about same time frame each run seems like, just further up the coast each time, don't know if it's gonna be a legitimate wobble or just the NAM's version of the funky chicken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Wait, since the downgrade to Cat 2, does this mean we are still in the major hurricane drought? Or was that streak for any hurricane hitting the US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 25 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Not sure I like the lower totals. I'm barely on the 6" line now. Guess we'll have to wait for the RGEM. Seriously, that wobbling is weird. We always...always under perform in these situations. 3-4" for Wake would be solid, 6-10" down east is what I would think would be solid for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, Shawn said: Wait, since the downgrade to Cat 2, does this mean we are still in the major hurricane drought? Or was that streak for any hurricane hitting the US? Correct, no major hurricane struck land so streak still intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: We always...always under perform in these situations. 3-4" for Wake would be solid, 6-10" down east is what I would think would be solid for them. Yeah, we usually miss the extreme stuff. 4" is still solid, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Rain/wind starting to kick up here. First decent bands of the storm coming in right now. It was intermittent before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 24 minutes ago, sctvman said: Rain/wind starting to kick up here. First decent bands of the storm coming in right now. It was intermittent before. Rains been trying to pick up here in Ladson/Summerville also. Winds around 15-20 mph. Very muggy/tropical feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Yeah, we usually miss the extreme stuff. 4" is still solid, though.Never fear GFS has you in the 6-8 looks like Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 18z GFS...will be interesting to see how close it can get. Even half would be a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, metwannabe said: Never fear GFS has you in the 6-8 looks like Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk That's crazy. The GFS is the new NAM with these ridiculous totals. That superband in your image, Pack, is just insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: That's crazy. The GFS is the new NAM with these ridiculous totals. That superband in your image, Pack, is just insane. You've been GFS'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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