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Matthew


NWNC2015

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6 minutes ago, Hugo said:

Local news is running the text of a hurricane warning for inland areas of SC and SE NC, all the way back to just west of 95. It includes places like Darlington and Lumberton. NWS page is not showing it. Very odd.

Yeah NWS only has coastal counties with cane warning, maybe there is a upgrade and they havent updated yet....all those flood warnings already going in the ILM NWS area equal :yikes:....

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Wow cant recall ever remember seeing them issue a flood warning like this out in front of a event.....

Flood Warning

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY, NC
1252 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016

...The National Weather Service in Newport has issued a Flood Warning
for the following rivers in North Carolina...

  Tar River At Greenville affecting Pitt County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive vehicles through flooded areas. Most flood deaths occur
in automobiles when people try to drive through flooded areas.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. Flood waters will
weaken the banks making them dangerous.

A followup product will be issued by the National Weather Service a
little later.

&&

NCC147-081652-
/O.NEW.KMHX.FL.W.0028.161009T1636Z-000000T0000Z/
/PGVN7.2.ER.161009T1636Z.161011T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1252 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016

The National Weather Service in Newport has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  The Tar River At Greenville.
* from Sunday afternoon until further notice...Or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At 11 AM Friday the stage was 6.2 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Sunday afternoon and
  continue to rise to near 17.6 feet by Monday evening. Additional
  rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Much of River Park North flooded. River
  Drive, including Dockside Duplexes, in Greenville begins to flood.
  Seine Beach Road in Grimesland flooded.

 

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This is a particularly good AFD from NWS Wilmington discussing how Matthew will have it's top blown off by the westerlies prior to encroaching onto the upper SC, SE NC area:

 

645   
FXUS62 KILM 071624  
AFDILM  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
1224 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS  
  
HURRICANE MATTHEW WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST  
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PASSING JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT.  
MATTHEW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA  
COAST SATURDAY, BEFORE CURLING SHARPLY OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY  
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD  
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A MUCH WEAKER MATTHEW  
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE BAHAMAS.  
  
  
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
  
AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY...LULL ON RADAR AT PRESENT BUT STRENGTHENING  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL TRIGGER A GREATER COVERAGE OF  
LANDWARD MOVING HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY AND ESPECIALLY  
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT EXISTS ALONG THE SC COAST AS  
HELICITY FIELDS INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TODAY AND  
TONIGHT. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FAVORED NEAR THE COAST.  
  
THE AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 'HURRICANE WARNING' AND THE  
CURRENT FORECAST WIND FIELD AROUND MATTHEW WILL NECESSITATE  
EXPANSION OF A 'TROPICAL STORM WARNING' FOR A GOOD PORTION OF  
INTERIOR NE SC AND SE NC WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATES.  
  
  
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
  
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HURRICANE MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST OFF  
THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA UP TO AROUND THE LATITUDE OF  
CHARLESTON ON SATURDAY, BEFORE INCREASING WIND SHEAR INDUCES AN  
EASTWARD SHIFT IN TRACK AND RAPID WEAKENING. IT'S FASCINATING  
WATCHING MODEL SIMULATIONS OF THE STORM'S VERTICAL CIRCULATION  
BECOMING DISTORTED AND FINALLY BREAKING UP, WITH EVERYTHING ABOVE  
500 MB SAILING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE LOWER HALF OF THE  
STORM LIMPS IN A CLOCKWISE CIRCLE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. MATTHEW WILL  
STILL HAVE A POWERFUL SWIRL OF WINDS ENCIRCLING THE AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND WEAKENING WON'T HAPPEN FAST ENOUGH TO  
PREVENT A STRONG WIND AND HIGH-END FLOODING RAIN EVENT FROM  
HAPPENING HERE IN THE CAROLINAS.  
  
THE SUITE OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER NORTHWARD  
WITH MATTHEW'S TRACK SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS CHANGE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT  
ENOUGH TO ALTER OUR RAINFALL FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALREADY EXTREME: 10-  
15 INCHES OF RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL  
CAROLINAS WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED. UTILIZING  
DOWNSCALED NHC 4-QUADRANT WINDS, OUR FORECAST INCLUDES WIND SPEEDS  
AS HIGH AS 50 MPH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY  
EVENING.   
  
WE NOTICED WITH HURRICANE HERMINE LAST MONTH THAT THE STRONGEST  
WINDS OF THAT EVENT OCCURRED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN A  
REGION WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL INTO DRIER AIR, CAUSING EVAPORATIONAL  
COOLING AND A SUBSEQUENT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO DEVELOP. THE  
SAME TYPE OF EVENT COULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF  
MATTHEW AS DRIER AIR BECOMES ENTRAINED BENEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY  
OF THE HEAVY RAIN SHIELD. 00Z GFS SOUNDINGS VALID OVER FLORENCE AND  
MYRTLE BEACH SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING FROM THE SURFACE UP  
TO ABOUT 1500 FEET AGL SATURDAY EVENING, WITH WINDS OF 60-75 MPH  
GETTING DUMPED DOWN INTO THIS MIXED LAYER FROM ALOFT. THIS KIND OF  
DETAIL IS NOT CURRENTLY IN OUR FORECASTS, BUT I WOULD NOT BE  
SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE A REGION OF EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG NORTHERLY  
WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND MATTHEW. THIS SAME REGION OF  
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MIGHT ARRIVE IN WILMINGTON AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
  
RAIN SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING, WITH COOLER AND  
DRIER CONDITIONS BUILDING IN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

 

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Man the other tropical thread is almost unbearable with the hype, bust, cry wolf debate on and on.....

Anyway airmass has really changed here, temps pushing mid 70's with DP up in 70's as well and some nice "tropical" downpours rolling over the office here in Louisburg, also nice bands of rain pressing in from the coast 

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5 minutes ago, metwannabe said:

Man the other tropical thread is almost unbearable with the hype, bust, cry wolf debate on and on.....

Anyway airmass has really changed here, temps pushing mid 70's with DP up in 70's as well and some nice "tropical" downpours rolling over the office here in Louisburg, also nice bands of rain pressing in from the coast 

Got 1" in my gauge already, been like that all morning here...thats part of the 8-12" the models have for me, hopefully lol...anyone got the UKIE yet....I had a friend txt and say it might be more NE and hugs the NC coast or even gets a little inland between ILM and Hatteras...said rainfall is epic on it as well....

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Just now, downeastnc said:

Got 1" in my gauge already, been like that all morning here...thats part of the 8-12" the models have for me, hopefully lol...anyone got the UKIE yet....I had a friend txt and say it might be more NE and hugs the NC coast or even gets a little inland between ILM and Hatteras...said rainfall is epic on it as well....

Hailstorm said it looked robust on rainfall totals, but I don't know any site that gives you the totals.  Maybe somebody can post them.

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That Ukie track is also a windier one for NC much more NE doesnt really have a crazy hard east turn at ILM ends up right over Hatteras....pretty big deal if it happens weak cane though...still that track would have a wind tide effect on the Pamlico sound and push 6-8 ft of water up the river....thats the 00Z the 12Z is actually a little more west....

GZ_D5_PN_042_0000.gif

GZ_D5_PN_042_0000 (1).gif

 

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