metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 This EWR cycle that seems to have been occurring forever now appears to finally be complete.... looking decent on radar and on it's current track will actually start to get a little further away from land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah, if the trough can tug it north a bit more, we'll probably see more appreciable wind. Either way, like you said, it won't take much wind to down trees in a lot of areas, given the soil conditions. Winds are a tricky thing with this one, could be we all never gust more than 30 or so inland or it could get rough even in RDU and especially east of town, RDU could easily see 30-40 mph gust if the track is along the coast like the HWRF /GFS/GFDL has...east of I-95 40-50+ is possibly away from the water.... and along the coast and maybe 20 miles inland they could gust 60-70 even....if Matt manages to go more north and stay 100+ miles off GA and the lower SC coast he will be able to expand and strengthen the west side that is currently over Florida...if the center actually is moving more NE than E and gets inland along the SE coast of NC then winds will probably go up but it would probably take him tracking up between I-95 and Hwy 17 to bring really destructive winds inland..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 No real big shift but does look like a tight cluster now up the SC/NC coast or just offshoreSent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 latest hrrr finally showing the eye staying offshore fl, and it absolutely pummels coastal sc (esp chs) with rainfall. the flooding will be disastrous with the surge added in and the winds coming in from offshore. there will be some scary images coming out of charleston tomorrow. also...high tide is at 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: latest hrrr finally showing the eye staying offshore fl, and it absolutely pummels coastal sc (esp chs) with rainfall. the flooding will be disastrous with the surge added in and the winds coming in from offshore. there will be some scary images coming out of charleston tomorrow. also...high tide is at 1am. I think we all is said and done this will be the biggest story, really hope SC coastal residents are paying attention.... edit: and as you said HRRR finally showing the eye offshore, it was adamant beginning yesterday morning that it was going west into Fl, kept adjusting it seemed as it kept missing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 9 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: latest hrrr finally showing the eye staying offshore fl, and it absolutely pummels coastal sc (esp chs) with rainfall. the flooding will be disastrous with the surge added in and the winds coming in from offshore. there will be some scary images coming out of charleston tomorrow. also...high tide is at 1am. Wow,. GA gets absolutely raked with that path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 i think this is what is to come for charleston tonight into tomorrow. daytona beach live cam. http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/daytona-beach-florida_5332/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 How does the rainfall predicted for eastern NC along with other recent storms compare to Denis and Floyd from '99? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: ^ Mostly cloudy and breezy with a chance of sprinkles. Thats my forecast and reality....sigh. i had hope for a time yesterday to at least get an inch but now looks like I won't get crap. I hate having to be an outside observer while just a hop, skip, and jump away there is a lot to look forward to and get...after already having a lot lately. From a weenie perspective it's torture lol. To make it worse..gfs shows NO rain here through the entire run and beyond even and it's now terribly dry for most areas in ga and it's going to get a lot worse it looks like. I know one thing I don't know how those in California stand their long stretches of dry and uneventful weather. I would honestly lose my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: Thats my forecast and reality....sigh. i had hope for a time yesterday to at least get an inch but now looks like I won't get crap. I hate having to be an outside observer while just a hop, skip, and jump away there is a lot to look forward to and get...after already having a lot lately. From a weenie perspective it's torture lol. To make it worse..gfs shows NO rain here through the entire run and beyond even and it's now terribly dry for most areas in ga and it's going to get a lot worse it looks like. I know one thing I don't know how those in California stand their long stretches of dry and uneventful weather. I would honestly lose my mind Yeah that sucks man. I know how you feel, though. In the winter, I frequently watch the northern and western Wake county folks high-fiving, as the rain/mix/snow line hangs out 3 miles to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 FWIW http://hint.fm/wind/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 hour ago, Jaguars said: Remarkable to watch an eye move right up the coast like it's glued to it. What worries me is the public reaction if it doesn't make landfall. Already there is a lot of criticism that it hasn't been as bad as forecast for florida. I was really afraid for the last few days what the reaction would be if it didn't ...even though it has tracked remarkably close.to the nhc forecast and it was always possible it might stay just off shore.. But for a lot of people all that matters is those last 20 to 30 miles. I really fear what the backlash will be and the future public actions might be the next time a major threatens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, Lookout said: Thats my forecast and reality....sigh. i had hope for a time yesterday to at least get an inch but now looks like I won't get crap. I hate having to be an outside observer while just a hop, skip, and jump away there is a lot to look forward to and get...after already having a lot lately. From a weenie perspective it's torture lol. To make it worse..gfs shows NO rain here through the entire run and beyond even and it's now terribly dry for most areas in ga and it's going to get a lot worse it looks like. I know one thing I don't know how those in California stand their long stretches of dry and uneventful weather. I would honestly lose my mind Having lived out there for awhile, I can say it's not that bad (the lack of appreciable weather systems that is) normally. It's an arid climate and the land and vegetation are much different than here, where 3 weeks without rain can make everything dry as a crisp. (Note I'm not talking about their major drought, I'm just referring to normal low-rainfall CA.) IMHO it didn't feel so bad because while I lived on the temperate coastline, if I wanted to experience a different climate, all I had to do was literally drive out into the desert, or up a mountain if I wanted cold or even snow. Much more variable based on elevation than the weather here. It's really unfortunate that we aren't getting any rain from this. The extreme drought continues. I hope it doesn't last through the winter and next summer, but I have a niggling feeling that it will. About the only good thing I can say about it is that we barely had to mow the bermuda this year. It spent most of the summer dormant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Lookout said: What worries me is the public reaction if it doesn't make landfall. Already there is a lot of criticism that it hasn't been as bad as forecast for florida. I was really afraid for the last few days what the reaction would be if it didn't ...even though it has tracked remarkably close.to the nhc forecast and it was always possible it might stay just off shore.. But for a lot of people all that matters is those last 20 to 30 miles. I really fear what the backlash will be and the future public actions might be the next time a major threatens. And it seems more often than not the past few years whenever we have had a threat of extreme weather really hyped around here, either hurricanes, winter storms, or severe threat, most of the time they don't happen. I think the general public could think the weather folks are always crying wolf and won't listen when something really bad does happen. We also haven't had a major hurricane hit in years, so that could just make the public even more inclined to not listen when there is a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 12 minutes ago, Lookout said: What worries me is the public reaction if it doesn't make landfall. Already there is a lot of criticism that it hasn't been as bad as forecast for florida. I was really afraid for the last few days what the reaction would be if it didn't ...even though it has tracked remarkably close.to the nhc forecast and it was always possible it might stay just off shore.. But for a lot of people all that matters is those last 20 to 30 miles. I really fear what the backlash will be and the future public actions might be the next time a major threatens. I hear you. I'm 10 min south of dowtnown jax and are just starting to get some moderate bands. But down in St Augustine it looks like another story all together. Beaches vs 10 miles inland makes a world of difference with this kind of storm. TV is showing Jax Beach vs us and it's a whole other ball game and we're still 90 miles north of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 4km NAM makes landfall between Hilton Head and Charleston..... and stalls as it's about to make the turn, wow this would be horrific for them especially rainfall wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 12 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: And it seems more often than not the past few years whenever we have had a threat of extreme weather really hyped around here, either hurricanes, winter storms, or severe threat, most of the time they don't happen. I think the general public could think the weather folks are always crying wolf and won't listen when something really bad does happen. We also haven't had a major hurricane hit in years, so that could just make the public even more inclined to not listen when there is a threat. My brother just text me with a lol. He reported that Jim cantore from the WTC was doing a live shot from cape canaveral, fl. No bad weather was noted and he was standing near some flowers that were knocked down for storm damage. He called it media storm hype for rating. People that were considering leaving the Charleston area are no longer going to leave due the storm reports in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summey Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Just heard from a co-worker who's sister has evacuated from Mt. Pleasant to the triangle that their neighbor, a cop, has reported that there have been 5 break-ins in their neighborhood overnight. People suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, Summey said: Just heard from a co-worker who's sister has evacuated from Mt. Pleasant to the triangle that their neighbor, a cop, has reported that there have been 5 break-ins in their neighborhood overnight. People suck. Yep. I have heard the same thing. people were going door to door knocking and saying they were selling solar panels. If you were not home, they would leave a brochure in door and if it was still there that night, they would break in. I hate these people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Savannah is still in a lot of danger from flooding. Down a bit from yesterday but with a cat 2 sandblasting the coast the images out of that area and SC will be potentially epic. Today and yesterday's images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 4km NAM moved back offshore and continued up the coastline @36 maybe 50-75 miles off Bald Head Island..... but man pounding NC with rain edit: @39 gets kind of wonky as it shoots north towards Wilmington, then looks to start to slide east next frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 NAM not nearly impressive as the GFS/CMC around this area. And it's usually too aggressive with QPF. Edit: That's the 12K. The 4K has me at 9", so it's good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: NAM not nearly impressive as the GFS/CMC around this area. And it's usually too aggressive with QPF. 4km NAM is actually west of the "regular" NAM.... fairly aggressive rainfall totals with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: NAM not nearly impressive as the GFS/CMC around this area. And it's usually too aggressive with QPF. I'm not able to post images, but the 4k is scary at hr 36. It has GFS totals but the simulated radar still has heavy returns over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 ^ Yeah, just saw that one and edited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Hard to see I know but best I could do, has the 6-8 amounts getting up into Wake looks like Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 And just for CR looks like it throws some 40 mph wind gust in there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Yep at hr 45 it's showing > 5" over half of NC. CR you would be ~10" or so. Pockets of 15" just to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 They could go boat racing at Daytona today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 3 minutes ago, metwannabe said: And just for CR looks like it throws some 40 mph wind gust in there too Sweet! Now we just need Pack's RGEM to confirm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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