Midnight Moon Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Interesting, how tropical tidbits points out how the inner eyewall is "orbiting" around the inside of the outer eyewall creating a deceptive erratic path. Probably what's throwing folks off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Also moving NNW instead of just NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midnight Moon Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Yep, and the wind field is growing as the outer wall takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Forecast track from NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Also moving NNW instead of just NW. Nah. WRAL on tv (Fish) is still focused on the loop well south of us.... He hasn't said anything about concerns. Looks like Maze just said in a post a minute ago in comments he thinks it'll be "ok". That's a quick mind changer. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: Not unless it misses the GA/SC coast further SE too. Good as far as miss? I hope!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Regan said: Nah. WRAL on tv (Fish) is still focused on the loop well south of us.... He hasn't said anything about concerns. NHC said it is moving NNW now. Might not make it to the NC coast, but I think the odds go up it gets to the NC coast if it misses Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midnight Moon Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Glad to see the intensity is expected to lessen to around 85mph at 8pm Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Just now, Brick Tamland said: NHC said it is moving NNW now. Might not make it to the NC coast, but I think the odds go up it gets to the NC coast if it misses Florida. Well Maze said he was concerned, no matter what he just said on another post... but he still said it. He knows a lot more than us and this hurricane will do as it pleases. Sometimes wrenches are thrown in and this whole week has been a doozy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 RGEM track would be nasty for alot in NC/SC/GA. Past 36 reliability get's iffy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Looks like the NHC kinda decided not to mention/use the 18Z GFS/HWRF and GFDL and I cant really blame them, there was no way they should wholesale change the track based on just those....if the 00Z's continue the trend then you will see them lift the plots back north..the timing is short and the models and NHC are not usually off by a lot inside of 48 hrs....if he stays east of track all night and the GFS stays similar or bumps more NW then in the morning I suspect hurricane watches will be up all the way to Cape Lookout.....the NAMS kind of backed off some though so the GFS might go back to the loop quicker as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midnight Moon Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 I've decided to start watching the outer eye-wall instead of the inner eye-wall for trajectory. Less erratic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, Midnight Moon said: I've decided to start watching the outer eye-wall instead of the inner eye-wall for trajectory. Less erratic. It looks like it's very close to taking over. If that happens, it should shrink down quickly and possibly lead to a stronger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Just now, Shawn said: It looks like it's very close to taking over. If that happens, it should shrink down quickly and possibly lead to a stronger system. It will be interesting if this ERC fully completes...it's already fairly big. The precip shield is as big as FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midnight Moon Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 According to Tropical Tidbits the larger eye-wall will interfere with further strengthening for a while. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Is it just.me or did the GFS start up with the storm already NW of its current location and almost takes it directly into central florida. Seems to have initialized 30 miles to far west with the low maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: It will be interesting if this ERC fully completes...it's already fairly big. The precip shield is as big as FL. Looking like the process is about to get underway.. the old center is getting pulled up into the NE wall of the outter. This will be very good to watch (with radar) over the next 3-6 hrs. I'm not quite sure it can get too much strength going on with such short time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, shaggy said: Is it just.me or did the GFS start up with the storm already NW of its current location and almost takes it directly into central florida. Seems to have initialized 30 miles to far west with the low maybe? It looks pretty good...right on the tip of Grand Bahama west coast. Never makes landfall, but it's so close. This is a worst case scenario track for flooding for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midnight Moon Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 00z gfs takes this right over wilm, Carolina coasts take a beating. Gets up to Morehead city at hour 54. _____________ Intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 FWIW the 00z GFS is a slight bit East versus previous runs for CHS. Appreciable rains for many.. flooding even. Anyways, need to get some sleep. Looking forward to tracking this tomorrow if it happens to stay "just off" the FL coast tonight. Be safe everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Midnight Moon said: 00z gfs takes this right over wilm, Carolina coasts take a beating. Gets up to Morehead city at hour 54. _____________ Intensity? I see 990 just south of Morehead city, the rain totals for the carolinas are going to be crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Nasty...PGV jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Wow, and our ground is saturated down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midnight Moon Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Appreciate that. Time to get some sleep for more tracking tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Hey packbacker, PGV is only running a couple inches behind wettest year ever (at least when I checked last week) and this would send us well over. If that turn flattens out at all and stays NE instead of ENE then a landfall and more effets with the wind inland would be possible. Grounds already wet so it wouldn't take much wind to have issues here. Gotta wait to see what the euro and other models do overnight and see if the turn to the southeast is delayed or absent from them as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, shaggy said: Hey packbacker, PGV is only running a couple inches behind wettest year ever (at least when I checked last week) and this would send us well over. If that turn flattens out at all and stays NE instead of ENE then a landfall and more effets with the wind inland would be possible. Grounds already wet so it wouldn't take much wind to have issues here. Gotta wait to see what the euro and other models do overnight and see if the turn to the southeast is delayed or absent from them as well. HiRes GFS...Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: HiRes GFS...Yikes. Yeah that much water and then if you add any winds over 50mph its gonna spell power outages. Models aren't doing much for wind threat for us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 This is going to be interesting to watch. I am 5 miles west of ILM. If the new runs trends prove true all of us eastern NC folks are going to be hurting. Thank god I am at 66 feet above sea level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 15 minutes ago, packbacker said: HiRes GFS...Yikes. 7 minutes ago, shaggy said: Yeah that much water and then if you add any winds over 50mph its gonna spell power outages. Models aren't doing much for wind threat for us though. Especially with all the rain eastern NC has already had. It won't have to be a major hurricane to do damage. Same thing happened with Fran because the ground was already so wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 My concern is now gonna switch to possible wind effects. If we start getting any sort of gusts on top of saturated ground and we have problems. I know with hermine there were baroclinic influences to keep his winds up. What's the chances of mathew doing the same as he moves up the coastline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.