Matthew

[shaggy]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a center relocation at some point. That MLC off to the NE of the LLC is real holding together and could see a new center form slightly NE of current spot.

[packbacker]

4 minutes ago, Stormcatt said:

EPS mean is WAY west of the euro op which is a clear outlier to the east


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Yeah, bulk of members well west of Bahama's with main cluster centered  towards central/west Cuba and the Keys (days 8-9).

[LithiaWx]

Tick - weenie word of the day

[downeastnc]

2 hours ago, packbacker said:

Yep, completely folded to the GFS, now running up 75W.  It's about 24 hours slower then the GFS.  Probably split the difference but track will be roughly the same, probably a east coast scraper.

Another recurve OTS cane is in the cards.  What a boring cane season this has been.

The OTS is the safe bet, timing wise the storm has to thread a needle and everything be in just the right spot and usually when you need 2-3 things like that to line up to get a land fall it isnt gonna happen....the storm HAS to be fast enough to get off the east coast before the high slips off of SE Canada so it gets that west nudge like the overnight GFS runs had....it can still happen but the models need to slow that high back down. Actually a pretty big shift between the 00Z last night and the 12Z today with that high location up in SE Canada. 

[Shawn]

This thing's track is still a crap-shoot. I'd suppose an OTS/near miss scenario at this point for us in the SE. BUT, the JMA did have a Southern FL hit. We all know the JMA is one of the best US weather models out there!

But yeah, with Euro ensembles all over the place, I'm not totally sold on anything yet. There are a few larger scale factors in play here that need to be ironed out.

[shaggy]

10 hours ago, Shawn said:

This thing's track is still a crap-shoot. I'd suppose an OTS/near miss scenario at this point for us in the SE. BUT, the JMA did have a Southern FL hit. We all know the JMA is one of the best US weather models out there!

But yeah, with Euro ensembles all over the place, I'm not totally sold on anything yet. There are a few larger scale factors in play here that need to be ironed out.

Really need to wait until we start seeing the G4 mission out in front ingested. The players will come into focus and become clearer in a couple days and by then hopefully they will start sampling the atmosphere out front of him.

[Brick Tamland]

11 hours ago, Shawn said:

This thing's track is still a crap-shoot. I'd suppose an OTS/near miss scenario at this point for us in the SE. BUT, the JMA did have a Southern FL hit. We all know the JMA is one of the best US weather models out there!

But yeah, with Euro ensembles all over the place, I'm not totally sold on anything yet. There are a few larger scale factors in play here that need to be ironed out.

Sounds like tracking a possible winter storm.

[packbacker]

12 hours ago, Shawn said:

This thing's track is still a crap-shoot. I'd suppose an OTS/near miss scenario at this point for us in the SE. BUT, the JMA did have a Southern FL hit. We all know the JMA is one of the best US weather models out there!

But yeah, with Euro ensembles all over the place, I'm not totally sold on anything yet. There are a few larger scale factors in play here that need to be ironed out.

Agree, OTS seems likely but I guess you never know.  I don't see what can cause this to get tugged back west.  If it gets far enough west before heading north in the Carribean with help from that trough in the gulf I guess it could get more interesting.  

Not sure I recall EPS run to run being this inconsistent.  

[mrdaddyman]

29 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Sounds like tracking a possible winter storm.

Well, in that case it won't hit the eastern third of NC.

[yotaman]

I noticed the GFS has been inching further west with each run.

[Isopycnic]

1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

Sounds like tracking a possible winter storm.

You are correct sir. Kinda like forecasting weather, 

[Avdave]

12z GFS brings just offshore of Kill DEvil Hills at I think it read 978MB  Will be in OBX Next thurs night for a few days, maybe ill be able to catch some of the backside winds from Matthew if this actually happens

[DopplerWx]

he's a cane.

[downeastnc]

1 hour ago, Avdave said:

12z GFS brings just offshore of Kill DEvil Hills at I think it read 978MB  Will be in OBX Next thurs night for a few days, maybe ill be able to catch some of the backside winds from Matthew if this actually happens

Actually its more like a direct hit on the OBX ......I would imagine this track would have a mandatory evac etc of the OBX....pretty sure KDH gets full fledged cane conditions out of this....

[shaggy]

Euro seems to be tracking him back the NNW instead of OTS so far.

[Avdave]

3 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Actually its more like a direct hit on the OBX ......I would imagine this track would have a mandatory evac etc of the OBX....pretty sure KDH gets full fledged cane conditions out of this....

Ok that map is easier to read for sure. looks like a nice hit. Luckily my place is on the highest point on the island at 36 feet above sea level.  Will have to monitor this next week as we get closer, it is 7 days out, a lot can and will change Im sure.

[Stormcatt]

Euro seems to be tracking him back the NNW instead of OTS so far.

Far more riding this run vs 00z


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[downeastnc]

Just now, Avdave said:

Ok that map is easier to read for sure. looks like a nice hit. Luckily my place is on the highest point on the island at 36 feet above sea level.  Will have to monitor this next week as we get closer, it is 7 days out, a lot can and will change Im sure.

Oh yeah and hell even being the bullseye 1-2 days out is no guarantee of a hit on these kind of tracks, even a 50-60 miles shift west or east makes a BIG difference on who gets what in NC cause of the angle ofthe coast....

[shaggy]

Euro is much faster now. It now has it well off the coast of the mid atlantic at 240 instead of barely NE of the Bahamas. Looks pretty similar to the cmc overall

[Avdave]

1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

Oh yeah and hell even being the bullseye 1-2 days out is no guarantee of a hit on these kind of tracks, even a 50-60 miles shift west or east makes a BIG difference on who gets what in NC cause of the angle ofthe coast....

Yep, Euro says see ya later OBX and barely brushes the OBX. Could be some nice wave action and some coastal erosion if this run verifies

[downeastnc]

4 minutes ago, Avdave said:

Yep, Euro says see ya later OBX and barely brushes the OBX. Could be some nice wave action and some coastal erosion if this run verifies

The Euro has sucked though lately especially in the tropics, and though this is a miss still on the Euro its actually trending further west and speeding up, so it is moving towards the GFS versus the GFS moving towards the Euro, this will probably be one of those irritating systems that the models never really nail down and get a good consensus on even once it gets up into the Bahamas or as it approaches the SE coast....

[Avdave]

5 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The Euro has sucked though lately especially in the tropics, and though this is a miss still on the Euro its actually trending further west and speeding up, so it is moving towards the GFS versus the GFS moving towards the Euro, this will probably be one of those irritating systems that the models never really nail down and get a good consensus on even once it gets up into the Bahamas or as it approaches the SE coast....

Im not invested this one at all yet. if it was next Tues then It will start to have most of my interest. It is just to far out right now and all i will do is gander occasionally at a model run and see what it shows. 

[packbacker]

12z EPS looks more threatening for the SE/E coast then previous runs.  Haven't seen the members yet, just the mean.  GEFS like track just slower, but faster then it's previous runs.

[Stormcatt]

12z EPS looks more threatening for the SE/E coast then previous runs.  Haven't seen the members yet, just the mean.  GEFS like track just slower, but faster then it's previous runs.

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[SN_Lover]

Will be interesting to say the least. Ens mean and op match pretty well....

 

Analogs are horrific.. I want a Hurricane but not Hugo bad. 

 

 

[packbacker]

JMA would be interesting.

 

[downeastnc]

This is the down side to having the ability to look so far out into the future.....at best its still 7 days away....though next Mon or Tues if the models are still holding a hit or near miss along the east coast its gonna get real for some of us really fast. 

[pcbjr]

We have lots of model runs yet to sort this out and for me anyway, not convinced its just an east coast storm. That north hook is a bit drastic .... It'll go north eventually looking at the whole set of dynamics, but far S Fla may have some issues. Just sayin'

[Stormsfury]

One of the things that has me particularly paying more attention to Matthew this year versus other years is that the seasonal trends have brought several systems affecting South Carolina this year.

Bonnie, Colin, then Hermine and Janet.  4 direct effect systems for the region since May...a bit of a seasonal TC corridor...so with this current seasonal trend and overall setup, I am paying particular attention to details.

[packbacker]

1 hour ago, pcbjr said:

We have lots of model runs yet to sort this out and for me anyway, not convinced its just an east coast storm. That north hook is a bit drastic .... It'll go north eventually looking at the whole set of dynamics, but far S Fla may have some issues. Just sayin'

 

32 minutes ago, Stormsfury said:

One of the things that has me particularly paying more attention to Matthew this year versus other years is that the seasonal trends have brought several systems affecting South Carolina this year.

Bonnie, Colin, then Hermine and Janet.  4 direct effect systems for the region since May...a bit of a seasonal TC corridor...so with this current seasonal trend and overall setup, I am paying particular attention to details.

Yep, will be interesting to see how these model runs hold up the next few days.   Lots of things point to a miss right now but wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't either.