Matthew

[NCSNOW]

11 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Current NAM run brings the center almost  onshore just north of Cape Canaveral and is west of its previous run 20 miles or so.....

Soon as I type no florida landfall imo, the last frame on sat shows more nw heading. I'll wait a half hour to make sure it's not a false wobble,  but it would be spot on with t he Nam latest run and Cape Canaveral   to jax would take a direct hit.

 

[Cold Rain]

Jogging back north again.

[palmettoweather]

With all disclaimers of taking the NAM verbatim, the 0z NAM seems to be a tick NW of 18z NAM at 30 and seems to be following that more NNE component that the 18z GFDL and HWRF were showing. Will likely get closer to CHS, but a little weaker as well.

[Shawn]

The NAM is okay with 500mb 36 hours or less.  Anything else, I'm not a fan of.   Hopefully higher quality arpege maps will start coming out for us in the SE in the coming year or so.  That model is going to be a good one for the short range.

 

About the land fall in FL etc.  Levi did say to not believe the "wobbles" and crap.  It will look like it goes West one or two frames, then north the next.  It's the nature of this thing trying to structure.  I do feel like FL is in play.  If it misses FL, coastal SC is in trouble and up into NC.

[Animal]

am, I wrong or does the 0z NAM, looks to impact SC more serious this run?

Thanks.

[Brick Tamland]

Mike Maze of WRAL said on Facebook he is worried about the new model runs and it coming more north to NC. Said he wonders if the NHC will adjust the track at 11.

[Witness Protection Program]

2 hours ago, bluffton21 said:

I'm trying to decide if me and my wife should leave we live in a town home 31 miles from Folly beach, West Ashley S.C.

We didn't get flooded last October. We know the storm surge could be different then what hit us last year. Anyone have an idea if West Ashley is going to be flooded worse then last year?

Thanks so much we want to ride it out if we can work etc.

If you are 31 miles from Foley Beach you aren't in West Ashley, which is 7-15 miles from Foley Beach.

 

Here's the inundation map from the NWS:

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/214535.shtml?inundation#contents

 

Find where you are then zoom in the map accordingly.  If you are in the colored storm surge areas, I would leave.  Remember that wave action will pound higher than just the surge level,  lots of debris can be driven by the surge as a battering ram, the disclaimer says there's a 10% probability the surge could be higher than indicated, and the storm could stay or become stronger than predicted for your area so this far out the map may understate. 

 

If not in a surge zone, then how strong is your structure?  Are there trees near that could fall on it?  Especially pine trees, those are very prone to snapping off half way up in strong winds.  Are the windows boarded up?  Can you get away from and deal with the broken glass from windows, is there an inner closet you can squeeze into to avoid windblown debris if the windows are blown out?  You understand hurricanes can spawn tornadoes, yes?  Do you have a second floor that adds an extra layer of protection if the roof is blown off?  Does your street frequently flood, has it ever threatened to enter your home before?  A second floor to escape to if the first floods?  You don't want to be hunkered down in water with fireant balls and snakes coming in.  Got enough of the appropriate food and bottled water, sterno cans, etc. and willing to put up with a week without power?  Do you have self defense to ward off looters, or armed neighbors that haven't evacuated?  Are native SC neighbors staying or evacuating?  Since you are medical and must stay for your job, do they have shelter options that might be better?  Don't forget to secure your valuables, food, medicine, mosquito spray, etc. in some ziploc bags and containers to try and keep them dry.  I'd duct tape them in a plastic tub with some weight in the bottom to reduce the chances it gets blown over.

 

I won't recommend one solution or another, just not enough info.  But what's the old saying, "Run from the waves, shelter from the winds"?

[NC_hailstorm]

Depends what eye wall you're looking at.If the outer one continues to squeeze and absorb the smaller one it will be bigger and that's only about 40 or so miles from land.

[Shawn]

4 minutes ago, Animal said:

am, I wrong or does the 0z NAM, looks to impact SC more serious this run?

Thanks.

The center / track of Matthew barely stays offshore from what I see on 12km (4km slowly coming out)...   compared to previous runs likely a bit West.  Compared to the HWRF (18z), not as bad.

 

Edit: 4KM nam run coming in looks dangerously close to coming in around where the 18z HWRF did.  I'll post again when the run finishes.  If it matches the last HWRF, its definitely more impacts for SC.  I trust the 4k more than the other versions.

[eyewall]

Tropical Tidbits explained the erratic wobbles of the inner eyewall well. It is basically oscillating around inside the outer one like clothes in the dryer. 

[palmettoweather]

3 minutes ago, Shawn said:

The center / track of Matthew barely stays offshore from what I see on 12km (4km slowly coming out)...   compared to previous runs likely a bit West.  Compared to the HWRF (18z), not as bad.

 

Edit: 4KM nam run coming in looks dangerously close to coming in around where the 18z HWRF did.  I'll post again when the run finishes.  If it matches the last HWRF, its definitely more impacts for SC.  I trust the 4k more than the other versions.

4km NAM at 30 is looking dangerous like you say. Much closer to the coast and stronger:

[Shawn]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Tropical Tidbits explained the erratic wobbles of the inner eyewall well. It is basically oscillating around inside the outer one like clothes in the dryer. 

Yes, Levi also went into the deal about the outter "ring" taking over with a larger wind field, and contracting smaller. Good analysis and service Levi provides!

[NWNC2015]

NAM isn't a tropical model, don't really like those images very misleading esp with rain. Not trying to downplay anything but, imo, cat4 is off the table for everyone, low end 3 upper 2 for FL, then cat1 high end low end cat 2 further north in SC. still quiet damaging with surge and close track and short landfall for some coastal areas of the S/E plus flooding rain in E NC.

[Regan]

35 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Mike Maze of WRAL said on Facebook he is worried about the new model runs and it coming more north to NC. Said he wonders if the NHC will adjust the track at 11.

Wow. Wish you had that on video.  Nobody on TWC or the guys I follow on Twitter are saying this. Brad P. seemed irritated that I suggested it from the Euro 12z even though a few channels and tweets showed concern. But I think he was overwhelmed. He gets mad at media sometimes for sharing things that they should wait and watch. I understand that. I think he's amazing. I too am beginning to wonder myself. I have been following the main thread on here for days, but right now I am finding it hard to get a feel for what's going on bc there's a lot of arguing. I did see random mentions in there, but nobody focused on it and the thought was put aside. I'd be interested in what Fish said and any info we could get. 

[CoachLB]

Either way you slice it. Landfall or not. It's not going to be good.

[Shawn]

Okay for SC it looks like the 4KM NAM is going to get very very close to an official landfall around Charleston/Edisto areas.  But then it takes a hard turn out and away from the coast.   The take-away from the run is a bit further West and stronger winds affecting the SC coast.

 

But again, it's the NAM.... but the 4KM has done okay recently... Packbacker knows more about that verification-wise etc.  Again, when all is said and done.. this is still a crap-shoot.  Small changes West or East greatly affects many people.

[Animal]

Just now, Shawn said:

Okay for SC it looks like the 4KM NAM is going to get very very close to an official landfall around Charleston/Edisto areas.  But then it takes a hard turn out and away from the coast.   The take-away from the run is a bit further West and stronger winds affecting the SC coast.

 

But again, it's the NAM.... but the 4KM has done okay recently... Packbacker knows more about that verification-wise etc.  Again, when all is said and done.. this is still a crap-shoot.  Small changes West or East greatly effects many people.

 I only have access to NCEP NAM. Anyone know how far off the coast the center gets and estimated winds. I see is it going to rain very hard etc.

[Shawn]

2 minutes ago, Animal said:

 I only have access to NCEP NAM. Anyone know how far off the coast the center gets and estimated winds. I see is it going to rain very hard etc.

Here, use this website : Tropical Tidbits <-- click here

It is what many of us use these days.  And it's free!   Between it and instantweathermaps, I have not used NCEP official in a long time.

[Brick Tamland]

3 minutes ago, Regan said:

Wow. Wish you had that on video.  Nobody on TWC or the guys I follow on Twitter are saying this. Brad P. seemed irritated that I suggested it from the Euro 12z even though a few channels and tweets showed concern. I too am beginning to wonder myself. I have been following the main thread on here for days, but right now I am finding it hard to get a feel for what's going on bc there's a lot of arguing. I did see random mentions in there, but nobody focused on it and the thought was put aside. I'd be interested in what Fish said and any info we could get. 

Here is the link to the post. He said he wondered about it coming more north in the replies.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1239360102781560&substory_index=0&id=204245296293051

[NWNC2015]

10 minutes ago, Regan said:

Wow. Wish you had that on video.  Nobody on TWC or the guys I follow on Twitter are saying this. Brad P. seemed irritated that I suggested it from the Euro 12z even though a few channels and tweets showed concern. I too am beginning to wonder myself. I have been following the main thread on here for days, but right now I am finding it hard to get a feel for what's going on bc there's a lot of arguing. I did see random mentions in there, but nobody focused on it and the thought was put aside. I'd be interested in what Fish said and any info we could get. 

Brad is very intelligent but due to his mass social media following he is very conservative until the last minute just like with winter storms. Never ask him about doom or something outside of the status quote or he will fire back with a politically correct answer. He will wait for more consensus before jumping any gun very much like the NHC they don't make radical changes to the cone they shift it slightly each time...or try to. No one has the right answer just yet with confidence but to veer away from doom is more likely correct 99% of the time. Let's hope Matthew isn't the 1%.

[Regan]

4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Here is the link to the post. He said he wondered about it coming more north in the replies.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1239360102781560&substory_index=0&id=204245296293051

Thanks. Saw it. Goodness. I replied  basically saying it's possible. Has anything gone right this week?  Little. 

[Regan]

5 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

Brad is very intelligent but due to his mass social media following he is very conservative until the last minute just like with winter storms. Never ask him about doom or something outside of the status quote or he will fire back with a politically correct answer. He will wait for more consensus before jumping any gun very much like the NHC they don't make radical changes to the cone they shift it slightly each time...or try to. No one has the right answer just yet with confidence but to veer away from doom is more likely correct 99% of the time. Let's hope Matthew isn't the 1%.

Brad is awesome!  I think he was overwhelmed the other night.  The thing I like most about him is how personable he is.  He's great about replying and he speaks "people". Lol

[Animal]

7 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Here, use this website : Tropical Tidbits <-- click here

It is what many of us use these days.  And it's free!   Between it and instantweathermaps, I have not used NCEP official in a long time.

 

Thanks

How do you get estimated wind speed etc.

I see what apparently looks to be the storm approach charleston and moves south east. I guess that is positive.

[packbacker]

Brad P tweeted this out.  

 

 

[Shawn]

Just now, Animal said:

 

Thanks

How do you get estimated wind speed etc.

I see what apparently looks to be the storm approach charleston and moves south east. I guess that is positive.

at the bottom of the page will be boxes with drop down menus you can select from.   Basically, clicking the "Lower Dynamics" box and clicking MSLP 10m Wind will give you an idea.

[NWNC2015]

the nhc site literally crashed Jesus people stop refreshing for the 11pm update let me look first 

[Regan]

NHC's Matthew page is down. Can't find server.  

[Brick Tamland]

8 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Brad P tweeted this out.  

 

 

Not sure that is good for SC and NC, though.

[packbacker]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Not sure that is good for SC and NC, though.

Not unless it misses the GA/SC coast further SE too.  

[NWNC2015]

NHC 11pm Update

A climate note: This is the first time since September 10, 1964 that two Category 2 (or stronger) hurricanes have occurred simultaneously in the Atlantic basin west of 65W. Interestingly, those hurricanes in 1964, Dora and Ethel, were in similar positions as Matthew and Nicole are now.