metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Man tonights 0z runs will be interesting.... the GFDL and HWRF along with GFS trend sure would make for a surprise in NC and right now Matt is still moving NNW, not making landfall in Fl anytime soon unless it takes a hard left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 I was just about to say that coastal NC shouldn't let their guard down, everybody is focusing on Florida LF... GFDL and HWRF seem to have tossed the hard right turn after SC, also GFS has shifted more N/NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, SteveVa said: I was just about to say that coastal NC shouldn't let their guard down, everybody is focusing on Florida LF... GFDL and HWRF seem to have tossed the hard right turn after SC, also GFS has shifted more N/NE. Not saying this is going to happen but if it continues to travel NNW and stay off Fl coast it could actually eventually be more detrimental to SC/NC then down there.... lots to watch over next 24 hours no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 57 minutes ago, bluffton21 said: I'm trying to decide if me and my wife should leave we live in a town home 31 miles from Folly beach, West Ashley S.C. We didn't get flooded last October. We know the storm surge could be different then what hit us last year. Anyone have an idea if West Ashley is going to be flooded worse then last year? Thanks so much we want to ride it out if we can work etc. Thats pretty much a no brainer, i wouldve left today. No way I would chance it out with no power or food or any daily life. My friends live in North Charleston and left yesterday for inland location to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Interesting map to take a look out wrt to power outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 The new GFDL and HWRF etc have got to be making the NHC CRAZY lol.......Also the currentl direction the storm is taking is slowly decreasing the chances of a hit there, every mile it goes north it increases its distance from Florida..this in no way means it wont end up on the central FL coast but there is no denying the NE of track motion the last 6-8 hrs..... I will just leave these right here.......the more north track Matt seems to be on and the timing etc well its just kind worrisome....12Z GFS from last Monday.....this is the run that prompted the NHC to go with the across eastern NC track....run the whole loop and see how damn close it has been the entire time... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016100312&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The new GFDL and HWRF etc have got to be making the NHC CRAZY lol.......Also the currentl direction the storm is taking is slowly decreasing the chances of a hit there, every mile it goes north it increases its distance from Florida..this in know way means it wont end up on the central FL coast but there is no denying the NE of track motion the last 6-8 hrs..... I will just leave these right here.......the more north track Matt seems to be on and the timing etc well its just kind worrisome....12Z GFS from last Monday.....this is the run that prompted the NHC to go with the across eastern NC track....run the whole loop and see how damn close it has been the entire time... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016100312&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=0 And how many times have we seen models put out a solution, then change, only for it to go back to the earlier solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The new GFDL and HWRF etc have got to be making the NHC CRAZY lol.......Also the currentl direction the storm is taking is slowly decreasing the chances of a hit there, every mile it goes north it increases its distance from Florida..this in no way means it wont end up on the central FL coast but there is no denying the NE of track motion the last 6-8 hrs..... I will just leave these right here.......the more north track Matt seems to be on and the timing etc well its just kind worrisome....12Z GFS from last Monday.....this is the run that prompted the NHC to go with the across eastern NC track....run the whole loop and see how damn close it has been the entire time... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016100312&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=0 Well Matt has gained enough latitude and coupled with the angle of the Fl coastline it would almost have to hook hard left to make landfall, could still graze the coast and get hurricane force winds on there but right now Fl might be dodging a bullet. Now what does that mean up north, I'm starting to think Ga/SC border or just north might be in the crosshairs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Keep it off FL coast and slight shift north....Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 11 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: And how many times have we seen models put out a solution, then change, only for it to go back to the earlier solution? It just a case of wait and see, its kind of a now cast, IF Matt stays moving NNW and does stay 75-100 miles off Florida, to me that validates the further north track...if the 12Z's shift up the coast and lose the loop I am sure the NHC will be all over it....obviously this thing missing the coast of Florida etc would be a huge break....he could also start going WNW in the next hr and slam into Florida....a track like the 12Z monday GFS run I posted however would be bad for coastal SC.....especially Charleston up to Myrtle and then NC from ILM and inland eastern NC and up the beaches to the OBX.....depending on shear and other factors this would bring a non weakened cane probably a strong Cat 2 weak 3 into those areas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 The models that were just posted, how are those different than GFS, ECMWF, etc...? Why do they come out earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Jogging north now and passing the eastern most point of FL now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: The models that were just posted, how are those different than GFS, ECMWF, etc...? Why do they come out earlier? The Hurricane model track guidance always come out earlier and most, if I'm not mistaken, are actually based off the GFS..... tend to show trends more than anything. Some of those are useless but you can get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: The models that were just posted, how are those different than GFS, ECMWF, etc...? Why do they come out earlier? Which models? Oh I see sorry, those are the guidance tracks basically its like a preview of what the models are probably going to do.....really good for seeing possible trends when compared to previous guidance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Well the 12z Euro had Matthew tracking 100 miles west of Grand Bahama and Matt tracked over western Grand Bahama. Maybe it's nothing, a wobble, but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 9 minutes ago, metwannabe said: Keep it off FL coast and slight shift north.... Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk can you imagine if it never makes official landfall and our US streak of no major landfalls continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Which models? The 00Z Hurricane track guidance I posted above I assumed is what he was referencing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 12 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: can you imagine if it never makes official landfall and our US streak of no major landfalls continues... The latest track guidance and his current motion are sure leaning that direction..... that would be insane. Sure looked like a slam dunk to finally end the streak but who knows, watch and wait At this rate the most devastation will be SC/NC from flooding.... of course a lot could still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 9 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: can you imagine if it never makes official landfall and our US streak of no major landfalls continues... It's done a great job of dodging land so far. It would actually be worse for SC/GA if it missed land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 14 minutes ago, packbacker said: Well the 12z Euro had Matthew tracking 100 miles west of Grand Bahama and Matt tracked over western Grand Bahama. Maybe it's nothing, a wobble, but we will see. I know the NAM isn't well respected for tropical events, but the 12K NAM beat the Euro on the forecast issued at Thursday 0z for Friday 0z. As we all know, this small margin of error early on has big implications for the track later. Here is the current location (an hour late for this analysis, but close enough): 12K NAM: ECMWF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 I don't know about Y'all, and models aside, but this WV loop is a bit concerning to me especially up in NFL/GA/SC. That diving ULL to it's NE is really starting to evacuate him to the N. He's also almost got the ULL that was imparting SW shear on him earlier today, to his SSE now, providing another channel. I don't see a lot of the upper level shear to it's north that's been talked about yet. The ridge isn't retrograding that much and that MW trof looks to be digging a little deeper. If it gets this eyewall thing straightened out, I dunno, I'm trying to see the hard right scenario and the weakening shear and I just don't see it yet. I always say follow the moisture but the outflow is easily moving North of that moisture channel now......... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Don't see how he can landfall florida. In fact unless his heading changes western eyewall may not even scrape the coastline. Imo I beleive between hilt on head central SC coast is gonna be ground zero. Be getting very nervous in Charleston atm. Not sure nhc forecasted a full eyewash landfall on florida coast, but as others have stated he's passing the eastern most point of Florida atm. Just mo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Run this loop.....http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2016100312&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0 Its the 12Z GFS from Monday and its scary accurate so far, nailed Haiti and Cuba and the southern Bahamas, it was a little east around Nassau to where it is right now ( not bad for a 84 hr plot though) and if you keep running its a bad hit for SC/NC.....again the fact it was so good up to now doesnt mean its right the rest of the way.....but man you would think for it to be right so farit had to have a good handle on the setup so far...guess we will see how it shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluffton21 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 56 minutes ago, Avdave said: Thats pretty much a no brainer, i wouldve left today. No way I would chance it out with no power or food or any daily life. My friends live in North Charleston and left yesterday for inland location to be safe. We have work obligations I work at the hospital. We have food water and other preps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 I'm a bit concerned that if Matt does miss Fla substantially, that the path flattens out a bit and puts NC back in line for a landfall. That NAM beating the Euro bit above is rather interesting! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 1 minute ago, Jet Stream Rider said: I'm a bit concerned that if Matt does miss Fla substantially, that the path flattens out a bit and puts NC back in line for a landfall. That NAM beating the Euro bit above is rather interesting! lol The NAM catches a lot of crap but under 36 hrs its pretty solid in a lot of cases.....its not designed to handle tropical systems but its not doing terrible with Matt.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: I'm a bit concerned that if Matt does miss Fla substantially, that the path flattens out a bit and puts NC back in line for a landfall. That NAM beating the Euro bit above is rather interesting! lol The next 12-24 hours of model runs are going to be big. If the CMC and Euro start to flatten that east and southeast hook and start to follow the gfs and hwrf and gfdl then this will put more of NC coast and maybe inland areas under the threat of more adverse conditions. Greenville,nc missed its wettest year on record in 2015 by the tiniest margin and its only a couple inches away from it again this year. If we get hammered with a 6-10 inch rainfall event it may be enough to top our wettest year ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Just now, downeastnc said: The NAM catches a lot of crap but under 36 hrs its pretty solid in a lot of cases.....its not designed to handle tropical systems but its not doing terrible with Matt.... Agree...in the main thread if you even speak the word NAM you get crucified. Yes, I wouldn't use it for TC genesis but for a mature cane it should be OK for storm track inside 36 hours like you said. The HRRR has done awful with Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Current NAM run brings the center almost onshore just north of Cape Canaveral and is west of its previous run 20 miles or so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 Its true guys, The NAM is certainly one of the standards in the short term for winter systems. Just don't rely on qpf output generally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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