packfan98 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: NHC will need to make major adjustment to cone. No recurve showing now on models. 18Z GFS showing Matthew climbing to just above Wilmington before curving. Yeah, but all of the other models still have it. I doubt they will make wholesale changes until other major models agree. Let's see what happens with the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I hope eastern Nc didn't let their guard down, that was a major change on the gfs, especially for areas around top sail beach and Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 this is 18z gfs.. 12z euro yesterday had almost exact same look [/img]https://postimg.org/image/5gvpdiz9t/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 6, 2016 Author Share Posted October 6, 2016 For those of you that are evacuating from the coast, put a cup of water in your freezer. Freeze it solid and then put a quarter on top of it and leave it in your freezer. That way when you come back after you've been evacuated you can tell if your food went completely bad and just refroze or if it stayed Frozen while you were gone. If the quarter has fallen to the bottom of the cup that means all the food defrosted and you should throw it out. But if the quarter is either on the top or in the middle of the cup then your food may still be ok. It would also be a great idea to leave this in your freezer all the time and if you loose power for any reason you will have this tip to fall back on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Yeah, but all of the other models still have it. I doubt they will make wholesale changes until other major models agree. Let's see what happens with the 0z runs.Yeah they are not gonna change based off the 18z gfs Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 That was a big shift on the 18z GFS....the UK doesn't make landfall in FL either. Euro is deadly inside 36 hours, hard to go against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 12z euro yesterday https://postimg.org/image/6bx9s8bqt/ 18z gfs from today https://postimg.org/image/5gvpdiz9t/ Ill let yall compare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Starting to get concerned about river flooding up here, NE NC and the areas down by FAY have seen a lot of rain recently, 6-10" could produce some major basin flooding, DOT has already deployed the high water signs in some of the more prone areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Had some showers earlier but would not consider directly related to Matthew. But just had a outer band come through and dropped 1.6" of rain. Yup I may need to empty the rain gauge eventually. I live NW of Orlando in Apopka FL. Under a Hurricane Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 The GFS was interesting to say the least, but was it the model acknowledging it blew it with how fast it retreated the trough or just a hiccup...cause a few more hiccups like that and easttern NC is back in play.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 hour ago, Animal said: Any feedback for the Mt Pleasant, SC area near Charleston. Brother lives there and has decided to stay. He has a canal in his back yard. Apparently during the epic rains last year, there was some decent flooding near him. He needs to get out. 45 to 60mph gust to 90mph expected. 10-15" of rain. I'm in Ladson/Summerville area so I know the area and he's high risk for surge, rainfall flooding and destructive winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Does anyone here live in Fort Pierce? My sister-in-law lives in an apartment right at the coast and isn't leaving. I'm just seeing if anyone from there posts here so I can follow your updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Anyone staying behind in a mandatory evacuation area is just being greedy and are putting their life and the life of first responders in danger. I know there is concern about looting but you have insurance for a reason. So leave unless you want to chance your life insurance paying out, leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Got sent this photo from my bother in mt pleasant, sc. small block party. Apparently, nobody is leaving due to a cat 1 off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 15 minutes ago, Animal said: Got sent this photo from my bother in mt pleasant, sc. small block party. Apparently, nobody is leaving due to a cat 1 off the coast. I... can't even. Staying with what is forecast and keeping kids there too? I hope they win the lottery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Interesting loop, sure looks like strong trough in the central plains, I would look at this and think we had a problem with a hurricane hitting in 48 hrs ....not sure he hits Florida at all looking at this....especially since FL has a NW to SE slant to the coast.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 6, 2016 Author Share Posted October 6, 2016 14 minutes ago, Animal said: mt pleasant, sc. small block party. Apparently, nobody is leaving due to a cat 1 off the coast. I remember quoting Brick and others posting cones with Matthew weakening after Haiti and no restrengthening in the Bahamas. This was days ago. I still don't understand why the NHC is so conservative with intensity. Should the NHC give a range for intensity like they do with the cone for further out in time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 18z HWRF does go from Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear to SE of Cape Lookout. Will sure be monitoring this trend However Matthew would be considerably weaker beyond Charleston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluffton21 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I'm trying to decide if me and my wife should leave we live in a town home 31 miles from Folly beach, West Ashley S.C. We didn't get flooded last October. We know the storm surge could be different then what hit us last year. Anyone have an idea if West Ashley is going to be flooded worse then last year? Thanks so much we want to ride it out if we can work etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 7 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: 18z HWRF does go from Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear to SE of Cape Lookout. Will sure be monitoring this trend However Matthew would be considerably weaker beyond Charleston To expand on this... original point of Impact in SC is right around Edisto/Charleston. Comes quite far inland as a 947 weakening to 954. One of the farthest inland running runs I have seen of the models for SC. Scary stuff. Leaves MYB into the ocean as a 971 weakening as it go up towards NC. Basically, violent storm landfalling around Charleston instead of hitting FL first. Worst case scenario for coastal SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 hour ago, AJF0602 said: I hope eastern Nc didn't let their guard down, that was a major change on the gfs, especially for areas around top sail beach and Wilmington. Just spent last week in North Topsail. We come down there almost every year so hoping it doesn't take to much damage. Anyone here live there or near to it? I'd be curious to keep tabs on obs there. Was down there last year when Jaquin passed by out to sea and the wave action was pretty intense so I can only imagine what Mathew will bring.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Raining like cats and dogs. For some strange reason I feel as if Matthew will come curving between Orlando and 95 at coco tittiesville. Ive been watching the wind mill this afternoon. For the most part its be NE on occasion would get nothing or a e/ese component to the wind. Anyway so far 2.3" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 You guys are being overly dramatic with the SC people. There's no scenario in which it hasn't weakened substantially by the time it gets there. If I lived there I would probably stay unless I lived in flood prone area. It isn't just looting, getting back can be a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 20 minutes ago, bluffton21 said: I'm trying to decide if me and my wife should leave we live in a town home 31 miles from Folly beach, West Ashley S.C. We didn't get flooded last October. We know the storm surge could be different then what hit us last year. Anyone have an idea if West Ashley is going to be flooded worse then last year? Thanks so much we want to ride it out if we can work etc. I would listen to whatever the authorities are saying, and not some anonymous message board posters. Are you in a mandatory evacuation zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 2 minutes ago, Dunkman said: You guys are being overly dramatic with the SC people. There's no scenario in which it hasn't weakened substantially by the time it gets there. If I lived there I would probably stay unless I lived in flood prone area. It isn't just looting, getting back can be a nightmare. That's the point... Mt. Pleasant will flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 21 minutes ago, bluffton21 said: I'm trying to decide if me and my wife should leave we live in a town home 31 miles from Folly beach, West Ashley S.C. We didn't get flooded last October. We know the storm surge could be different then what hit us last year. Anyone have an idea if West Ashley is going to be flooded worse then last year? Thanks so much we want to ride it out if we can work etc. If you don't have adequate food and water to completely support yourself without power and water for 2-3 weeks you need to head out. It's too late to prepare. It might not last that long but you're in a world of hurt if it does. Also, West Ashley is a huge area that ranges from nowhere near the 100 year flood plain to zone V in certain areas closer to the river and James Island. Even then you have areas like Shadowmoss that were not in a flood zone but still had major problems with ponding last fall. For what it's worth falling trees were a bigger factor than anything during Hugo in West Ashley, so you may want to consider looking up or around in addition to where water might go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluffton21 Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 6 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: I would listen to whatever the authorities are saying, and not some anonymous message board posters. Are you in a mandatory evacuation zone? No we would if it was mandatory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 People keep talking about it will be weakened if it makes it to SC and NC. All I know is the only hurricane I experienced was Fran, and it was 115 mph when it hit NC, and only 80 mph when it came through the Triangle, but it did plenty of damage here and at the coast. It doesn't have to be a major hurricane to be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 The gfdl and the hwrf seem to lose the looping recurve scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted October 7, 2016 Share Posted October 7, 2016 5 minutes ago, bluffton21 said: No we would if it was mandatory! For better or worse SC doesn't do "mandatory". They've told people who are forecast to have the surge, plus 10-12"+ of rain, plus the hurricane force winds to evacuate, but they don't force them, so if they decide to stay, there will not be help until after it's all over, as nobody is going to come help you during the storm. But because they won't call it mandatory, many people think it's not serious and don't leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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