Matthew

[BullCityWx]

10 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

It's surprising to me, every time I check the Charleston area storm surge maps there really isn't much there compared to what I see just an hour and a half away in Savannah. I'm wondering how much that might change if the storm stays over water but closer to the coast and wanders near CHS.

Now I had thought that a hurricane coming from the angle that this one is coming in from was the worst case scenario for downtown. Of course, it is predicted to hit at low tide. 

[LMA1973]

Core is drying out...taking in a lot of dry air. Center jogging to the north as well.

[LithiaWx]

7 minutes ago, LMA1973 said:

Core is drying out...taking in a lot of dry air. Center jogging to the north as well.

ERC and those are wobbles not a heading.  Everything still pulls this into central FL as a CAT 3 best/worst case.

[packbacker]

4km doing pretty well from about 36-42 hours out.  Below is yesterdays 6z run, has it spot on with the correct pressure.

 

[Avdave]

Latest estimates for RAL CWA

 

 

[Cold Rain]

Where is Falls to do the NAM pbp?  Nammit!

At 36, the trough is a little sharper/deeper and the storm is a little closer to the coast with the precip shield more expansive to the left than at 42 on the 12z.

[packbacker]

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Where is Falls to do the NAM pbp?  Nammit!

At 36, the trough is a little sharper/deeper and the storm is a little closer to the coast with the precip shield more expansive to the left than at 42 on the 12z.

LOL...well the 12km has been fairly bad even at 36 hours out, consistently to far east.  

The 4km is interesting, doesn't make landfall on FL that i can tell, keeps it hugging the coast, which would be bad for GA/SC.

[packbacker]

Pretty cool looking at the inner eyewall starting to get absorbed by the outer eyewall.

http://weather.graphics/mrms/florida/florida_radar.gif

[FallsLake]

3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Where is Falls to do the NAM pbp?  Nammit!

At 36, the trough is a little sharper/deeper and the storm is a little closer to the coast with the precip shield more expansive to the left than at 42 on the 12z.

Just couldn't do it....  wife's car broke down in Apex and I had to go get her going (bad terminals). I have to now catch up on 200 new replys..

[FallsLake]

So out to hr 39 on the 18z NAM and it still shows the secondary precip area through central NC up through SW Virginia. This may be an area to look for enhanced rain amounts (more than what's forecasted).   

[Cold Rain]

3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Just couldn't do it....  wife's car broke down in Apex and I had to go get her going (bad terminals). I have to now catch up on 200 new replys..

Sorry man.  I gotcha covered today!

At 48, it's much closer to the coast, just off Myrtle, compared to being farther SE at 54 on the 12Z.  Precip is greater on the west side too.  Definitely feeling the effects of a sharper trough...and maybe even Nicole?  Interesting trend, if this continues.

[FallsLake]

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Sorry man.  I gotcha covered today!

At 48, it's much closer to the coast, just off Myrtle, compared to being farther SE at 54 on the 12Z.  Precip is greater on the west side too.  Definitely feeling the effects of a sharper trough...and maybe even Nicole?  Interesting trend, if this continues.

I think this is going to feel more like a nor'easter for our area. Cool, windy, and lots of rain.   

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

I think this is going to feel more like a nor'easter for our area. Cool, windy, and lots of rain.   

UNC, State, and Duke all play at home Saturday. The weather should make for some interesting games and light crowds.

I haven't heard about the FSU at Miami game being rescheduled.

 

[Ser Pounce]

True - I can't imagine getting ready being any easier. It's downright nice outside, and forecast to be nice after everything passes. I have four small plants to move from the front porch and a piece of wood to put up over a large window on the leeward side of the house and that's it besides filling up numerous containers of water that I have a feeling won't be needed.

[Cold Rain]

Not sure it's going to loop this run.  Moving toward Hatteras.  Much more qpf in NC.

[FallsLake]

Looking at packs 4km NAM simulated composite radar and it looks storm for many of us.

Then here's the NAMs total precip through hr 57:

 

 

 

[Cold Rain]

Gets all the way to Hatteras and makes the loop then.

[Avdave]

This is a rare sight with no air traffic over SE Florida and only the NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane showing up in air

[LithiaWx]

Dead track to Daytona then Up through GA

[gritsnc]

29 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

UNC, State, and Duke all play at home Saturday. The weather should make for some interesting games and light crowds.

I haven't heard about the FSU at Miami game being rescheduled.

 

I'm curious as to how much rain actually gets pulled into the Triangle and Piedmont area. Tomorrow is our high school homecoming and our school is the only one in the county that refused to move the game to tonight. They even mentioned it on WFMY. Smh.

I'm also curious to see how fast this thing curves back out to sea. If that front comes in faster then it will be pushed away from the coast. Time will tell....

 

[Animal]

Any feedback for the Mt Pleasant, SC area near Charleston. Brother lives there and has decided to stay. He has a canal in his back yard. Apparently during the epic rains last year, there was some decent flooding near him.

[CherokeeGA]

8 minutes ago, Animal said:

Any feedback for the Mt Pleasant, SC area near Charleston. Brother lives there and has decided to stay. He has a canal in his back yard. Apparently during the epic rains last year, there was some decent flooding near him.

He's in an evacuation zone.  He ought to leave.  Per NOAA's maps parts of Mt. Pleasant will certainly be under several feet of storm surge water, plus tide and real waves (not those dinky 2-3ft things we usually see).  Not to mention the immense rainfall totals predicted for that area.  Think last year's immense lowcountry flooding, plus hurricane force winds and storm surge.

 

[palmettoweather]

22 minutes ago, Animal said:

Any feedback for the Mt Pleasant, SC area near Charleston. Brother lives there and has decided to stay. He has a canal in his back yard. Apparently during the epic rains last year, there was some decent flooding near him.

I would second Cherokee's thoughts. I'm a coastal SC native and knowing where he is, I would get out. The storm surge map and rainfall projections I have attached below, combined with any kind of hurricane force winds could be dangerous and at least will knock out power for some time if the storm goes where prognosticated.

 

 

[Animal]

Thanks for the messages. I sent him a text. 

So most people feel the tidal surge and rain will cause wide spread flooding in the area I get the impression.

[NWNC2015]

Folks leave if you can afford to. Don't make your children or family suffer without power for who knows how long. Most can't live without internet regardless if you have a generator. Roads will be closed. Flooding will occur, protect the generator. Take a vacation to Charlotte for a few days. 

[Animal]

4 minutes ago, Animal said:

Thanks for the messages. I sent him a text. 

So most people feel the tida'l surge and rain will cause wide spread flooding in the area I get the impression.

Well he is staying. Quote was  "we will be fine" survived the 100 year rain event last year. Further informed they have several canals and drainage lakes/pathways that have been rebuilt recently. 

[DopplerWx]

18z gfs looks really wet for eastern sc/nc.  keeps it offshore fl and close to a chs landfall.

[CherokeeGA]

2 minutes ago, Animal said:

Thanks for the messages. I sent him a text. 

So most people feel the tidal surge and rain will cause wide spread flooding in the area I get the impression.

If you recall what happened in SC last year when the middle and lowcountry in the state got 10-20+ inches of rain, the extreme flooding that resulted in road and bridge washouts, shuttered freeways, etc.  All that is going to happen again, because these rainfall totals will push the rivers and swamps way past flood stage again.  Plus Mt. Pleasant will see the storm surge and tidal push.  It will take days for all that water to drain its way to the ocean.  Plus hurricane force winds are going to peel a lot of stuff off a lot of structures.  Mt. Pleasant is right on the coast.  It's not safe there and he really should get out.  I hope you are successful in persuading him.

Even getting past the storm itself, the flooding etc. is likely to mean that at minimum days go by without help, power, etc.

As some gov't official or other put it on television today:  Don't be selfish.  Get out.  Don't risk your life when you don't have to, risk the lives of first responders, and break your loved ones' hearts when they can't reach you for days or get worst case news.

Text him the link to that Haiti footage someone posted above.  Perhaps that will help him see what's coming.  This isn't just a thunderstorm.

[DopplerWx]

18z gfs further north, almost near wilmington.  weekend washout for sure.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

NHC will need to make major adjustment to cone. No recurve showing now on models. 18Z GFS showing Matthew climbing to just above Wilmington before curving.