Brick Tamland Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I think making landfall like this and riding up the coast would be worse than going inland and weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 ^ Keep us up to speed on what they're posting in the main thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: ^ Keep us up to speed on what they're posting in the main thread. If only there was some way to go read it myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 12Z GFS shows landfall/close landfall near Cape Canaveral and stays inland for a while in Florida... Also continues to show the interaction with CAD/NE flow causing rain in Western, Central NC, and southside VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 unless we have some left wobbles the eye may stay just offshore or at least the weaker side only onshore.....hopefully that will be the case edit: looks like 12z GFS turns it a little more left(then current direction) later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 QPF through 48 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 GFS still a significant rain event for NC especially areas down south that do not need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 LOTS of rain all the way to Charlotte and I77 in NC this run.. 4-6 inches from Greensboro to Augusta GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 The coastal flooding concern for GA is ramping up quickly. Predictions of 8-12 feet of surge expected into Tybee and other low lying barrier islands in GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Stop the insults and stay on topic. I'd rather not have to start giving out suspensions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Heavy rain axis for NC certainly shifted a tad west or NW on this run of the GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, jburns said: Stop the insults and stay on topic. I'd rather not have to start giving out suspensions. They never learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 As if Northeast NC needed anymore rainfall after the 11" we got from the remnants of Hermine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Tram, I think you grabbed the 0z. Here's the 12z. Looks a bit higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Tram, I think you grabbed the 0z. Here's the 12z. Looks a bit higher. Thank you much. You're just full of good news. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 11 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: RAH may have to up those QPF totals if these model trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, tramadoc said: Thank you much. You're just full of good news. LOL Sorry. I'd think the Euro is more reliable, which I believe is showing less. The UK will be out shortly, though. It's done pretty well track-wise, and if it continues to show it's persistent, more northerly solution, it will probably show higher totals. It'll cave at some point, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Sorry. I'd think the Euro is more reliable, which I believe is showing less. The UK will be out shortly, though. It's done pretty well track-wise, and if it continues to show it's persistent, more northerly solution, it will probably show higher totals. It'll cave at some point, though! Even 3" of rain isn't a good thing. Edenton and Windsor flooded from Hermine and the water still hasn't gone down to normal levels. Bunn's BBQ in Windsor had 8" of water in their restaurant in downtown Windsor from the Cashie River flooding. They might not reopen after that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Tram, I think you grabbed the 0z. Here's the 12z. Looks a bit higher. I'm a bit more encouraged that ne ga and the western carolinas...especially the later...might get some half decent rain. Gfs has increased amounts with each run while in general there has been a gradual increase in how far northwest respectable amounts get. On top of that could get some decent wind gusts too. Gfs is showing 850mb winds near 55 to knots and 925 mb winds of 50 to 55 knots from athens to greenwood southward. Wouldn't take much more north movement at all to see higher winds than that. The weenie in me hopes so because I sure don't want to see it walk right up to the back door only to not come on in lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I am currently sitting at around 60" of rain for the year at my house, PGV is currently at 56.70"....the normal annual rainfall over the last 30 years for here is 49", so I am 11" above annual rainfall IMBY....PGV is only 2" off pace to beat the wettest year ever here at PGV......even worse is last year we missed breaking the wettest year ever by less than 1".....if this does end up close to the latest GFS's 8-10" that would almost put PGV into wettest all time year, with almost 3 more months to go ugh......if we get that much rain its going to mean most of eastern NC has had 120+" of rain over the last 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 12 minutes ago, tramadoc said: Even 3" of rain isn't a good thing. Edenton and Windsor flooded from Hermine and the water still hasn't gone down to normal levels. Bunn's BBQ in Windsor had 8" of water in their restaurant in downtown Windsor from the Cashie River flooding. They might not reopen after that one. Yikes! Don't look at the GGEM. 5"+ from east of Charlotte up through the Triangle to Morehead out to Hatteras. SE NC gets 14"+! It's got to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I-16 is going one way out of Savannah at 1300 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 15 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: RAH may have to up those QPF totals if these model trends continue. For reference...the expected winds for the Raleigh area from Matthew will about like what we are experiencing today (maybe less) per NWS: For Thursday afternoon: This associated cloud distribution will probably support an atypical temperature one, with upper 60s over the NE Piedmont and NRN Coastal Plain, ranging to lower to perhaps middle 70s over the SRN and WRN Piedmont. It will also become breezy, with 10-15 kt sustained winds gusting between 15-25 kts this afternoon - strongest E. Lows tonight will not be as cool as recent days, given steadily increasing low level moisture/humidity, widespread low OVC, and probable rain - lows in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Good lord the people on TWC. Some guy tried to compare Matthew to a blizzard. Another group of people living in trailers are going to ride it out in trailer because their pride is too high to go to a hotel. Pretty sure that's what I heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: I am currently sitting at around 60" of rain for the year at my house, PGV is currently at 56.70"....the normal annual rainfall over the last 30 years for here is 49", so I am 11" above annual rainfall IMBY....PGV is only 2" off pace to beat the wettest year ever here at PGV......even worse is last year we missed breaking the wettest year ever by less than 1".....if this does end up close to the latest GFS's 8-10" that would almost put PGV into wettest all time year, with almost 3 more months to go ugh......if we get that much rain its going to mean most of eastern NC has had 120+" of rain over the last 2 years. Amazing. On the other side of the mountains, I'm on pace to beat the driest year ever for my location by nearly 6" . . . and we won't see a drop from Matthew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yikes! Don't look at the GGEM. 5"+ from east of Charlotte up through the Triangle to Morehead out to Hatteras. SE NC gets 14"+! It's got to be wrong. It gives shetley rain so it's wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, Lookout said: I'm a bit more encouraged that ne ga and the western carolinas...especially the later...might get some half decent rain. Gfs has increased amounts with each run while in general there has been a gradual increase in how far northwest respectable amounts get. On top of that could get some decent wind gusts too. Gfs is showing 850mb winds near 55 to knots and 925 mb winds of 50 to 55 knots from athens to greenwood southward. Wouldn't take much more north movement at all to see higher winds than that. The weenie in me hopes so because I sure don't want to see it walk right up to the back door only to not come on in lol This reminds me a lot of Hermine now with where the cutoff was. Hopefully both of us get at least 1-2 inches of rain. This isn't too far from being a much bigger deal for both of us, with tons of rain and winds of 50-60 mph. A 50 mile west shift would probably do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: It gives shetley rain so it's wrong.. His yard will find a way to miss all of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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