downeastnc Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 19 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep...the models have been pretty good inside 48 so think today's 12 runs will have a good idea. So here is the current plot for the 06Z GFS run we just had at 0 hr Here is the 12Z from Mon which is the worst GFS run for NC there was with the track up over eastern NC....pretty good match for the current plot....what changes between now and Sat is the high over TX builds in and shoves the trough north allowing more zonal flow...the 12Z Mon run keeps the trough strong and deep...its gonna miss but I wont believe it till its actually headed east, even a 50-75 miles delay in that east turn can have big impacts on SE NC and the beaches up to Cape Lookout especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 17 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: How did the Euro look overnight with QPF for here compared to yesterday's 12z run? Hay CR, not sure about the euro but as I posted before the 6z GFS (compared to 0z) did increase the precip values northward towards our area. A couple of days back RAH discussed the possibilities of precip building to the northwest of the storm as it became extratropical. Since it may not become extratropical now (pushed to the SE) I'm wondering if there will still be a higher precip shield to the NW as it get shunted easterwards. The same dynamics should still be at work (at least initially as it first shifts eastwards), so who knows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Don't want or need the rain, hunting season starts next week and I need cool an dry or the mosquitos will be unbearable......my personal feelings are if the track is wrong its wrong to the bad meaning the storm would be closer not farther away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 6z GFS high res bumping up totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 40 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: How did the Euro look overnight with QPF for here compared to yesterday's 12z run? Not as high...2-4" across triangle. Euro didn't track as far north this run. GEFS has been steadily bumping up totals too....who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 My father in law is i. Ormond beach right now with some friends. They are two blocks from the coast. Can't talk him into going inland some. I just don't get it. Says they are going to ride it out. I kept explaining that would normally be fine but you're on the damn beach. I need to gather some maps and warning and text them to him I guess z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Thanks Falls and Pack! Love that GEFS gif. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 My father in law is i. Ormond beach right now with some friends. They are two blocks from the coast. Can't talk him into going inland some. I just don't get it. Says they are going to ride it out. I kept explaining that would normally be fine but you're on the damn beach. I need to gather some maps and warning and text them to him I guess zWould telling him there is chance for it to strengthen to a high end Cat 4 or low end 5 persuade him? The potential for catastrophic damage along the FL coast is very real, hopefully he stays safe and doesn't need to be rescued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 8 minutes ago, Hvward said: Would telling him there is chance for it to strengthen to a high end Cat 4 or low end 5 persuade him? The potential for catastrophic damage along the FL coast is very real, hopefully he stays safe and doesn't need to be rescued. He's a hard headed guy. I hate to say it but I don't think there is anything that will change their minds. Four of them down there in the same place. They just don't fully understand the danger of what's possibly coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wendy Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 28 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: My father in law is i. Ormond beach right now with some friends. They are two blocks from the coast. Can't talk him into going inland some. I just don't get it. Says they are going to ride it out. I kept explaining that would normally be fine but you're on the damn beach. I need to gather some maps and warning and text them to him I guess z My friends just moved to a block from the water in Stuart, FL and were going to ride it out. I found this photo montage from Hurricane Jeanne and it convinced them to move inland. Maybe it's worth a try? http://www.floridatoday.com/picture-gallery/weather/hurricanes/2014/09/03/photos-looking-back-hurricane-jeanne-10-years-later/15018577/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 It's looking more and more like it's going to be too difficult a task for Matthew to climb north enough to heavily impact NC with appreciable wind. Even the heaviest rains look to be confined to SE and coastal sections. Not saying inland areas won't get some rain, but outside of the 6z GFS and UK, the trends haven't been favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 53 minutes ago, wendy said: My friends just moved to a block from the water in Stuart, FL and were going to ride it out. I found this photo montage from Hurricane Jeanne and it convinced them to move inland. Maybe it's worth a try? http://www.floridatoday.com/picture-gallery/weather/hurricanes/2014/09/03/photos-looking-back-hurricane-jeanne-10-years-later/15018577/ My wife was able to convince them that staying was putting their lives in danger. They are going to Tampa this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 12z NAM coming in and it's ~75 miles north of its 6z location at hr 21. Edit: But at hr 30 its now ~75 miles to the SE of its 6z location Correction: I was off one frame. At hr 33 it looks to be just a little north of 6z. Just north of Jacksonville. This run would have the center stay just off shore at that location moving northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Glad you all had luck. 2 uncles refusing to leave Cocoa Beach. "Praying that it isn't that bad." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 NC Emergency Management 11 mins · Although the center of Hurricane Matthew is currently forecast to remain offshore of the North Carolina coast, we still expect significant impacts to southeastern NC. Heavy rain/flooding, strong winds, storm surge, and beach erosion remain the primary threats. It is important to continue to monitor this storm as confidence in the track remains low, and any slight westward shift would bring significant impacts farther inland and farther north across NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 At hr 39. It's slightly east of its 6z location. Interestingly, there does seem to be a precip focus over central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 At hr 42 there is still that precip focus over NC. Looks like a CAD signature with a hurricane off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I know it's the NAM but it seems to have initialize spot on location wise and when you look at water vapor loop outflow pointed in the direction the NAM takes it.... this could still very well stay offshore, not to minimize impacts at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Looks like a hit on the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I hardly ever look at the 12km NAM but the 4km NAM did well tracking Hermine inside 36 hours. Looks rough for coastal GA into SAV through 36-42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: I hardly ever look at the 12km NAM but the 4km NAM did well tracking Hermine inside 36 hours. Looks rough for coastal GA into SAV through 36-42. Great point and the 4km NAM would be razor thin close to a landfall, darn near worst case scenario.... also some hefty rainfall totals through central NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Talking about the end of the 4km but it doesn't even get it north of the GA/SC line. At this point kind of rooting for a miss to the south so my Sat isn't washed out. Hopefully GFS ticks south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Talking about the end of the 4km but it doesn't even get it north of the GA/SC line. At this point kind of rooting for a miss to the south so my Sat isn't washed out. Hopefully GFS ticks south. Yeah, that seems to be the latest trend...keeping it more south and then looping it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Talking about the end of the 4km but it doesn't even get it north of the GA/SC line. At this point kind of rooting for a miss to the south so my Sat isn't washed out. Hopefully GFS ticks south. Any "trend" north may have ceased, looks like the 12z tropical model guidance held or even ticked south, looks like a tighter loop maybe off the Ga/Sc coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Talking about the end of the 4km but it doesn't even get it north of the GA/SC line. At this point kind of rooting for a miss to the south so my Sat isn't washed out. Hopefully GFS ticks south. The 4km NAM does some weird bouncing around towards the end of the run so I'm not sure how much stock I would put into its output at this point given that wacky last few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 9 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: The 4km NAM does some weird bouncing around towards the end of the run so I'm not sure how much stock I would put into its output at this point given that wacky last few frames. Agree...not bad through 36 then after that I wouldn't pay much attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 12 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah, that seems to be the latest trend...keeping it more south and then looping it. We tend to dodge these extreme weather events, sucks during winter but would be good on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Up to 140 mph on the 11am advisory. BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW HEADING FOR FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 77.8W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF NASSAU ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Matthew East 5 mins · If you watched my AM video, we are now seeing most models go to the idea I laid out of a more central FL interaction, as opposed to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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