AJF0602 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Looking at the water vapor imagery I find it really hard to believe this doesn't make it up to the Carolinas, going to be a close call. Anxious to see what the models hold tonight, I know a lot of people here in Jacksonville let their guard down earlier because of the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 hour ago, superjames1992 said: 115 mph/962 mb on the 8 pm advisory. Looks primed to strengthen again overnight. Really looks better on ir and like the eye is about to pop out again too. Hrrr is taking it toward miami too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 8 minutes ago, Lookout said: Really looks better on ir and like the eye is about to pop out again too. Hrrr is taking it toward miami too. Check out this link man; it's not too bad. I found the "large image" on their server in a directory... and it seems to be rapidscan or something http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATRAPID/satloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I have family who live about 15 miles south of Jacksonville. Should I tell them to evacuate or do you think they will be ok ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 19 minutes ago, Lookout said: Really looks better on ir and like the eye is about to pop out again too. Hrrr is taking it toward miami too. Lightening is picking up as well. Tall tale sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foobar Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I have family who live about 15 miles south of Jacksonville. Should I tell them to evacuate or do you think they will be ok ? Are you in the will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 7 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I have family who live about 15 miles south of Jacksonville. Should I tell them to evacuate or do you think they will be ok ? Go here, make your decisions from official information... http://www.sjcemergencymanagement.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 wondering if the pull of nicole has had any effect on the early 00z guidance spaghetti plots that have matthew a little east riding the coast of fl up to a chs landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 NHC forecasting it to become a cat 4 again. Have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Looks like more and more of the models have it doing the loop and hitting Florida again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Can anyone recall a storm that made landfall in 2 different states? EURO Operational looks like landfall around Daytona then landfall around Charleston and then back to being a fish. The EURO rolls that scenario. I am with Lookout though, this really looks like a bad case scenario unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, HWY316wx said: Can anyone recall a storm that made landfall in 2 different states? EURO Operational looks like landfall around Daytona then landfall around Charleston and then back to being a fish. The EURO rolls that scenario. I am with Lookout though, this really looks like a bad case scenario unfolding. Not uncommon actually.....Andrew, Katrina, Charley, there are a bunch and thats not counting the ones that landfall at the SC/NC border of which there have been several.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: Not uncommon actually.....Andrew, Katrina, Charley, there are a bunch and thats not counting the ones that landfall at the SC/NC border of which there have been several.... While I realize that Katrina hit LA, MS and Alabama due to size, maybe I should be more specific. A hurricane that makes landfall bounces out into the ocean and goes and makes landfall more than 24 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 It never ends. CNN Breaking News @cnnbrk 6m6 minutes ago Man wounded after opening fire on South Carolina cops who were directing hurricane evacuation traffic, official says http://cnn.it/2dxtCS2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Euro model from 9+ days ago, verifying now. Nearly perfect. Pretty amazing stuff. #Matthew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, HWY316wx said: While I realize that Katrina hit LA, MS and Alabama due to size, maybe I should be more specific. A hurricane that makes landfall bounces out into the ocean and goes and makes landfall more than 24 hours later. Katrina crossed FL.....Andrew did the same and Charley as well....they all hit again after hitting FL....also it depends on what you count as a landfall there is a decent chance that the center of Matt never actually gets onshore in FL or anywhere else....but the eyewall may hit several places, Matt if he does the path some models have could actually skirt FL, SC and NC or even landfall all three states and that would be rather rare indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Think miami is in for a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I'm trying to watch Brad P's video on Facebook but my wifi sucks and I don't have a good cell signal in my house so it's all jumpy and I can't hear what all he's saying. He mentioned a possible Fujiwara effect due to Matthew and Nicole. Can someone break that down into simple terms for me? That's not like what happened in The Perfect Storm is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 11 minutes ago, NicInNC said: I'm trying to watch Brad P's video on Facebook but my wifi sucks and I don't have a good cell signal in my house so it's all jumpy and I can't hear what all he's saying. He mentioned a possible Fujiwara effect due to Matthew and Nicole. Can someone break that down into simple terms for me? That's not like what happened in The Perfect Storm is it? Long story short it is when two storms (in close proximity) "orbit each other". A much stronger storm will be dominant and basically eat it (or toss it to the wolves), if allowed. I do not personally think it is making enough of an effect this early in the game to cause major changes in strength or track of Matthew. Maybe after he possibly takes his loop. Edit: if i am not mistaken, the "perfect storm" was a capture into another piece of strong energy in a trough swinging through the northeast. With that said, it is much more advanced and in this situation other factors are important. I would highly recommend you to look up the Fujiwara effect when you have time one day. It is fascinating, especially in the Atlantic ocean (more rare). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 17 minutes ago, tim123 said: Think miami is in for a surprise Yep, anyone trust the HRRR at 18 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Here ya go, it's all there. The devils in the details now. That WAR is still pushing west. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael__Ginger Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 EC forecasts more west than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Hard to bet against the model consensus at this point, they all have to have it wrong at this point for this to be any more than a rain threat, maybe some decent wind down along the coast but nothing hurricane force most likely...the models all shove the trough north and weaken it while building the big high over the GOM which then dominates the steering for Matt....it would take a pretty epic failure at this point for the trough to win out and cause a more north track into NC...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 First outer bands incoming should make for a fascinating and challenging 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 6z GFS total precipitation through hour 84: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Impressive rain totals on the GFS. Looks to have the majority of both SC and NC with 5+ inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: Hard to bet against the model consensus at this point, they all have to have it wrong at this point for this to be any more than a rain threat, maybe some decent wind down along the coast but nothing hurricane force most likely...the models all shove the trough north and weaken it while building the big high over the GOM which then dominates the steering for Matt....it would take a pretty epic failure at this point for the trough to win out and cause a more north track into NC...... Yep....UK still fairly aggressive with its track. But Euro/EPS took a step back with major wind impacts to NC coast.. Still looks very wet for coastal regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 32 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep....UK still fairly aggressive with its track. But Euro/EPS took a step back with major wind impacts to NC coast.. Still looks very wet for coastal regions. We should be able to tell if the models have blown it by Friday afternoon, if the trough isn't retreating by then we may have problems.....still in order for that to happen the models have to be wrong on a large scale feature in the short range and that's pretty doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 4 minutes ago, downeastnc said: We should be able to tell if the models have blown it by Friday afternoon, if the trough isn't retreating by then we may have problems.....still in order for that to happen the models have to be wrong on a large scale feature in the short range and that's pretty doubtful. Yep...the models have been pretty good inside 48 so think today's 12 runs will have a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep...the models have been pretty good inside 48 so think today's 12 runs will have a good idea. How did the Euro look overnight with QPF for here compared to yesterday's 12z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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