airmarci Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 10 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Flooding setup potential for GA and SC is off the charts IMO. There are going to be some epic scenes coming out of the coastal areas there. It's about game time,. The only way to avoid it is for Matthew to stay farther off shore than currently expected. I'm very concerned about this for coastal SC/NC. 12Z ECMWF puts down 10"+ over a large area that is already well above normal for the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 ^^ Pack, I think the strength shown in that image is a little bit ridiculous, given that it has just traveled along virtually the entire east coast of FL. No way it recovers that much in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 CDO structure is recovering nicely. Inner core convection is exploding -- Quickly getting its act together again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 EPS supports the Op, coastal NC/SC looks rough. Heavy rains inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 nam out to 24, similar to 12z. edit: now at 30 much further south and west. fl hit likely incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: nam out to 24, similar to 12z. Slightly south of 12z but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 EPS supports the Op, coastal NC/SC looks rough. Heavy rains inland. Yeah supports the more northern idea but the OP is west of the mean with most members offshore and going hard right by day 4Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 NAM is definitely slower this run. At hour 36 it's at least 100 miles south of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: NAM is definitely slower this run. At hour 36 it's at least 100 miles south of 12z yeah cant buy model agreement for anything it seems.....12K slow and takes a nice N jump away from FL at 42.. slower though till lagging 12Z by 100 miles or so......stays 100 miles off Fl though , 4K closer still no landfall at 36 and its moving more N now gonna be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 spoke too soon, big north jump. heading nne off sav at 60. no fl landfall. gonna be close for sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: yeah cant buy model agreement for anything it seems.....12K slow and takes a nice N jump away from FL at 42.. slower though till lagging 12Z by 100 miles or so......stays 100 miles off Fl though , 4K closer still no landfall at 36 and its moving more N now gonna be close. At 54 it's still south of the 12z but it look like it's trying to take the same path (just slower). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 23 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: Yeah supports the more northern idea but the OP is west of the mean with most members offshore and going hard right by day 4 Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Looking at the members, atleast half the members are inland in SC up to NC at hours 72-84. At hour 84, looks like 10 or so members off the coast by 100-200 miles that is skewing the mean further east which is why you say the Op is west of the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 maybe a myrtle landfall this run of the nam, out to 63 (and way out in nam fantasy land i know). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Ryan tweeted this out...EPS through 84 showing how many members west of the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: ^^ Pack, I think the strength shown in that image is a little bit ridiculous, given that it has just traveled along virtually the entire east coast of FL. No way it recovers that much in 12 hours. If it tracks just like the Op then I buy a gradual weakening like it shows. If it tracks up I-95 in FL then it will be a lot weaker and rain will be the only problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just add to some precedence...Hurricane David paralleled FL coast as Cat 2 100mph and stayed a Cat 2 for duration of FL coastline and weakened to Cat 1 as made landfall. Matt is progged to be a 120-130mph as it approaches FL coastline. I dunno...maybe it does weaken more rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 NAM is a little weaker and north with the trough at 18Z that's why its slower, goes pretty much due east from south of Cape Fear...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 So the 18z NAM never had the storm hit land (at least out to hour 75). Runs it just off the coast all along the south eastern seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Looking at the members, atleast half the members are inland in SC up to NC at hours 72-84. At hour 84, looks like 10 or so members off the coast by 100-200 miles that is skewing the mean further east which is why you say the Op is west of the mean. I see your point but most of the members are right on the coast or just offshore at 84 and by 90 are pulling east . Regardless it will be interesting to see if it's a trend or not at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 9 minutes ago, packbacker said: Just add to some precedence...Hurricane David paralleled FL coast as Cat 2 100mph and stayed a Cat 2 for duration of FL coastline and weakened to Cat 1 as made landfall. Matt is progged to be a 120-130mph as it approaches FL coastline. I dunno...maybe it does weaken more rapidly. Hurricane David crossed both Dominican Republic and Haiti and the inner core never fully recovered. I was 7 at the time David came thru but this was the storm that surplanted weather as an addiction so to speak. Rains were torrential, winds were rough but it wasn't a devastating storm per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 18 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: I see your point but most of the members are right on the coast or just offshore at 84 and by 90 are pulling east . Regardless it will be interesting to see if it's a trend or not at 00z Yep...would actually be better if it went inland, would weaken alot more rapidly. Just off the coast would be worse for the coastal regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Why is the NWS showing it so far out to see before it gets even close to NC? The 5 pm makes me think I wasted a lot of money on food and getting my generator fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, NCWX said: Why is the NWS showing it so far out to see before it gets even close to NC? The 5 pm makes me think I wasted a lot of money on food and getting my generator fixed. There has only been 1 run of models that has hinted at perhaps the trough being stronger and the storm being more north up this way....if the 18Z GFS gets further north and then the models at 00Z repeat or creep north some more they will adjust....your probably gonna need that jenny if this trend is correct where you are could easily get hurricane conditions....give it time its still 3 days or so out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 So basically the NWS is downplaying a possible disaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, NCWX said: So basically the NWS is downplaying a possible disaster? They are not downplaying anything....at best it is 60-70 hrs from impacting NC so if the runs tonight continue to indicate its going to get further north into NC they will issue a hurricane watch probably at 11 am tomorrow morning giving at least 48 hrs of lead time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 hour ago, packbacker said: Just add to some precedence...Hurricane David paralleled FL coast as Cat 2 100mph and stayed a Cat 2 for duration of FL coastline and weakened to Cat 1 as made landfall. Matt is progged to be a 120-130mph as it approaches FL coastline. I dunno...maybe it does weaken more rapidly. If you get half of Matt over land it's going to have some detrimental impacts. I could see it weakening rapidly from 3 to a 1 once we get land interaction. Plus once storms start moving north in this part of the world they start to weaken and transition slowly to extra tropical. JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Hurricane watch hoisted for coastal GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 18z GFS shifted NW with heaviest qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 14 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Hurricane watch hoisted for coastal GA. Not sure how good the 4km nam is with these things but the 18z run looks almost like a worst case scenerio...keeps the eye just off shore enough to maintain a lot of its strength but close enough that essentially rakes the entire coast from central florida to southern sc with the western eyewall...and getting as low as 933mb. It should.be noted it initialized the storm with a pressure of 970mb..so.that is a lot of strengthening. Possible cat 5 at some point? Hopefully it stays enough off shore.but it's scary to think the next best case scenerio is actual full landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 115 mph/962 mb on the 8 pm advisory. Looks primed to strengthen again overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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