downeastnc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, packbacker said: Yep, at 75 over CHS, hitting ILM hard. One more shift to the east like this one and NC would be in trouble.....I cant help but think the storm will be a lot sloppier and weaker than the models reflect given all the cores land interaction and how close to the coast it says in between those .....still bet NHC going to bend the path back west north of SC at 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 My goodness...84 eastern NC getting hammered with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Almost identical to the UKMET,coming into Charleston at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, jburns said: Science is not a strong point of the current NC leadership. Remember, we passed a bill banning sea rise on the NC coast. Someone at the tropics forum thread said McCrory gave the all clear for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Stalled off coastal NC, eastern NC getting washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: One more shift to the east like this one and NC would be in trouble.....I cant help but think the storm will be a lot sloppier and weaker than the models reflect given all the cores land interaction and how close to the coast it says in between those .....still bet NHC going to bend the path back west north of SC at 5pm I could be wrong but haven't both euro and gfs have had issues with intensity from the beginning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Stalled off coastal NC, eastern NC getting washed away. Where's the cut-off line for the heavy precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Worst of the QPF from ILM up to the Outer Banks. SC still really bad too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, Cold Rain said: Where's the cut-off line for the heavy precip? Looks like you are in the 8" range, where Durham would be in the 4" range. Looks like I-95 would be 9" and ramps up from there towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Looks like you are in the 8" range, where Durham would be in the 4" range. Looks like I-95 would be 9" and ramps up from there towards the coast. Nice! Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: I could be wrong but haven't both euro and gfs have had issues with intensity from the beginning? Very early on sure everything was way off on his strength but intensity forecast especially in new systems is tough and fairly useless, its a bit more stable and reliable in established systems like Matt....no doubt he gets close to Florida as a 120-140 mph storm....if he makes landfall and rides right up the coast then he will weaken fairly quickly...if he bounces and gets back 100 miles out and then hits Charleston up to ILM he should be a Cat 2 at least....the problem is the fetch will pile water in front of him the entire way, adds lots of rain and winds 50-70 mph up and down the coast, outside of the first landfall that area the winds are going to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 9 minutes ago, packbacker said: Stalled off coastal NC, eastern NC getting washed away. Still weakens the trough quite a bit thus allowing the turn OTS on the Euro right before hitting NC and moving inland over eastern NC, if the trend to keep that trough deeper and stronger keeps up then I wonder if that east turn doesn't move further north too....how crazy would it be if the track NHC had right over eastern NC yesterday ends up being right.....wonder how much love McCory would give the Euro then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 wow 12z Suite looks impressive and that means in a rough way for OBX and SE NC. they take a pretty serious ravaging from Matthew. Hope this is just a hiccup and not a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summey Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Still weakens the trough quite a bit thus allowing the turn OTS on the Euro right before hitting NC and moving inland over eastern NC, if the trend to keep that trough deeper and stronger keeps up then I wonder if that east turn doesn't move further north too....how crazy would it be if the track NHC had right over eastern NC yesterday ends up being right.....wonder how much love McCory would give the Euro then. He would just point to it as proof that science is bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 too early to call anything off. as we have seen in winter, these last 48hrs can see slight changes in the models with big implications. with the nam and cmc showing a more sig sc/nc impact and now the euro, won't be surprised to see a more sig sc impact solution take shape on tonight's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Still weakens the trough quite a bit thus allowing the turn OTS on the Euro right before hitting NC and moving inland over eastern NC, if the trend to keep that trough deeper and stronger keeps up then I wonder if that east turn doesn't move further north too....how crazy would it be if the track NHC had right over eastern NC yesterday ends up being right.....wonder how much love McCory would give the Euro then. Still surprised it went that far north. Just a slight improvement with the plains trough had big impact on track. Going to be a long couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 If this track/strength/speed happens its going to get really ugly. Yes, these are 850 winds not surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 This could be worse than we think. Today's High Point Enterprise contains this piece of information. "Greensboro College and Elon moved up their home games scheduled for Saturday because of the threat from Hurricane Andrew." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, jburns said: This could be worse than we think. Today's High Point Enterprise contains this piece of information. "Greensboro College and Elon moved up their home games scheduled for Saturday because of the threat from Hurricane Andrew." Journalist today are friggen lazy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 29 minutes ago, downeastnc said: One more shift to the east like this one and NC would be in trouble.....I cant help but think the storm will be a lot sloppier and weaker than the models reflect given all the cores land interaction and how close to the coast it says in between those .....still bet NHC going to bend the path back west north of SC at 5pm Looking more closely at the track...I never see the center go over land, verbatim. But with some land interaction that close it does weaken from 940 east of Miami to 960 east of CHS to 980 east of ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Looking really strong...not good for the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Is there any chance that the Euro was previously displaying its known bias of slowing down energy/systems? I know that it often does this with upper level energy coming across the country with respect to winter systems where the GFS will be quicker and more correct. Is the euro doing the same with this tropical system? If so, expect it to speed up a little more over the next few runs, allowing it to get a little further north too. It may also get rid of the loop if it becomes more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 24 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Very early on sure everything was way off on his strength but intensity forecast especially in new systems is tough and fairly useless, its a bit more stable and reliable in established systems like Matt....no doubt he gets close to Florida as a 120-140 mph storm....if he makes landfall and rides right up the coast then he will weaken fairly quickly...if he bounces and gets back 100 miles out and then hits Charleston up to ILM he should be a Cat 2 at least....the problem is the fetch will pile water in front of him the entire way, adds lots of rain and winds 50-70 mph up and down the coast, outside of the first landfall that area the winds are going to be Ahh, got it thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, packfan98 said: Is there any chance that the Euro was previously displaying its known biase of slowing down energy/systems? I know that it often does this with upper level energy coming across the country with respect to winter systems where the GFS will be quicker and more correct. Is the euro doing the same with this tropical system? If so, expect it to speed up a little more over the next few runs, allowing it to get a little further north too. It may also get rid of the loop if it becomes more progressive. Yep...considering run to run the Euro hasn't had a consistent run at day 3-4 tells us to take everything with a grain of salt. The 0z EPS hinted at this type of potential. We shall see what 12z EPS shows in about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Looking more closely at the track...I never see the center go over land, verbatim. But with some land interaction that close it does weaken from 940 east of Miami to 960 east of CHS to 980 east of ILM. Hate storms like this honestly, its never easy for us in eastern NC, for once it would be nice to have a set in stone track 3-4 days out lol.....the trend seems to be for the Euro to "extend" the trough 12 hrs long than it did the previous run before retreating it to Canada....around the 72 hr panel on every Euro run for the last 3 runs the trough fades, thus every run the trough last 12 hrs longer....if it does that one more time I think we could see the Euro move east a bit off SC to maybe 50 miles off Charleston then right into Myrtle over to ILM then out over eastern NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep...considering run to run the Euro hasn't had a consistent run at day 3-4 tells us to take everything with a grain of salt. The 0z EPS hinted at this type of potential. We shall see what 12z EPS shows in about an hour. i think any RI could have an impact down the road as well, models have struggled mightily w/ matthew's intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 hour ago, WeatherNC said: Anyone know the last major hurricane to make landfall along Florida's east coast? 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: Jeanne was 115-120 at landfall in 2004.....I cant remember anything hitting north of that in ages.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 12 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: i think any RI could have an impact down the road as well, models have struggled mightily w/ matthew's intensity. 14 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Hate storms like this honestly, its never easy for us in eastern NC, for once it would be nice to have a set in stone track 3-4 days out lol.....the trend seems to be for the Euro to "extend" the trough 12 hrs long than it did the previous run before retreating it to Canada....around the 72 hr panel on every Euro run for the last 3 runs the trough fades, thus every run the trough last 12 hrs longer....if it does that one more time I think we could see the Euro move east a bit off SC to maybe 50 miles off Charleston then right into Myrtle over to ILM then out over eastern NC... The trough digging in the plains is 48 hour model prog change, surprised it's bouncing around this much. Granted, it's not huge changes but makes the difference with Matt stalling and heading east at CHS v/s ILM/OBX. I would be surprised if that verified as flatter...only a guess though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Flooding setup potential for GA and SC is off the charts IMO. There are going to be some epic scenes coming out of the coastal areas there. It's about game time,. The only way to avoid it is for Matthew to stay farther off shore than currently expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Impressive seeing Matthew trapped between a ridge Tx and Bermuda ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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