calculus1 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 I'm looking for the coastal discussion by Matthew East, but I can't seem to find it in this thread.Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 Reminder from last year. Nothing is set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 Time: 13:20:30Z Coordinates: 14.900N 59.833W Acft. Static Air Press: 959.2 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 447 m (1,467 ft) Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.7 mb (29.82 inHg) Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 112° at 62 kts (From the ESE at 71.3 mph) Air Temp: 21.9°C (71.4°F) Dew Pt: 15.8°C (60.4°F) Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 64 kts (73.6 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 kts (59.8 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (0.39 in/hr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 I have never seen an invest listed with 60mph winds before on weather underground. Quote Dr. Jeff Masters , Director of Meteorology (Admin) 1:42 PM GMT on September 28, 2016 SFMR winds of 52 kt (60 mph) at the surface in this leg surface were the greatest with a SFMR quality control flag of zero. This is still not a TS, though. I haven't seen winds much higher than this without a closed circulation being present. Dr. M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 37 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: I have never seen an invest listed with 60mph winds before on weather underground. We have TS Matthew as of 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 The NHC says they split the difference in track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 hour ago, NWNC2015 said: Reminder from last year. Nothing is set in stone. LOL...yep, that was supposed to be Sandy part 2. The ULL in the southeast actually kicked Joaquin OTS instead of pulling it back in. If this does ride up the sw atlantic and that ridge in the NE is there this thing will be crawling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 12z GFS initiated perfectly with the new defined center the recon found, track is more east and slightly weaker, may not hit NC this run as a result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 hour ago, Hoth said: We have TS Matthew as of 11 Still...i don't think I've ever seen a purely tropical system go from from an unclassified system to an initial intensity of 60mph. I'm sure non tropical systems that evolved to a tropical or subtropical system has but not with a system like this. Pretty crazy to me...especially considering how well organized it's been for the last day or two. I realize they had not found a well defined and closed circulation but it's been incredible that such an obviously organized system where tropical storm force winds were already being observed took this long to classify. Plus in terms of on the ground experience, 50mph winds are 50mph winds despite whether there is technically a 100% closed circulation. I don't know, I guess what I'm getting at is I think maybe they should have done it sooner even if it didn't match the strict definition of a closed circulation since the on the ground conditions in the leeward islands would still be very significant regardless and the fact there was a near certainty it would be closed very very soon. Regardless, looks like a very serious threat for the carribean and it's interesting to see such an unusually sharp north turn being so far south. The rather unusual track is going to cause impact in areas that normally they don't see a storm from that direction which could be even more dangerous for the locals. btw...guess which ensemble member my inner weenie is rooting for lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 cmc and gfs are safely east of nc and new england now. waiting to see the 12z euro before deleting the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just now, NWNC2015 said: cmc and gfs are safely east of nc and new england now. waiting to see the 12z euro before deleting the thread It's still seven days out. This is just one of many wobbles to occur. Anytime your expecting a major hurricane to be off the east coast at day seven, you keep tracking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 The sooner and stronger it develops, the more north and east it will go. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 12z GEFS just off HAT day 7, quicker then previous runs but also a tick west of previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 GEFS tracks it to about 75W until about day 4 and then heads due north through about day 8 and rakes the east coast. Would be interesting to see it get to 77-78W and then head due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 12z euro looks to have initialized well. so far tick north and tick stronger in Caribbean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 euro folded to the gfs on the turn, more steep less digging south-west into the Caribbean, quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 good more safe run trend for Jamaica should not be hit head on could slide east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 14 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: euro folded to the gfs on the turn, more steep less digging south-west into the Caribbean, quicker Yep, completely folded to the GFS, now running up 75W. It's about 24 hours slower then the GFS. Probably split the difference but track will be roughly the same, probably a east coast scraper. Another recurve OTS cane is in the cards. What a boring cane season this has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 first run where notable weakening occurs in Caribbean, 7mb rise, shooting north-east into the Bahamas so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 hour192 WHERE IS NORTH-WEST TURD, THIS THING IS GOING OTS??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Yep much greater weakness this turn ..... it gets caught by the first trough... instead of getting turned north by the trough that's still way back in the plains. Does turn due north at 216. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: hour192 WHERE IS NORTH-WEST TURD, THIS THING IS GOING OTS??? Yep...no where to go. Actually the faster solutions may give the best bet for landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, Inudaw said: Yep much greater weakness this turn ..... it gets caught by the first trough... instead of getting turned north by the trough that's still way back in the plains. Does turn due north at 216. You talking about here day 5-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Yes that's the weakness that sends it through the eastern Bahamas.. NNE.. before turning due north between 192 and 216 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Just now, Inudaw said: Yes that's the weakness that sends it through the eastern Bahamas.. NNE.. before turning due north between 192 and 216 hours. Yep, comparing the GFS and Euro at day 5-6 you can see the differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 240 hours.. turns nne again... slowly heading away... Potential threat to Bermuda.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 What a mess this is trying to figure out. Euro has a low up at the benchmark, low in the gulf, big trough in the plains and a cane rotting away in the Bahama's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 5 hours ago, NWNC2015 said: Reminder from last year. Nothing is set in stone. Lmao. That was a disaster. Nhc had the cone going into the Mid Atlantic with basically Sandy part 2. This storm will probably end up going OTS, but as seen above, anything can happen. Can't forget about the Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and Bahamas though. Not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 EPS mean is WAY west of the euro op which is a clear outlier to the east Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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