LithiaWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 19 minutes ago, packbacker said: This is bad for FL/GA/SC coast, per this run. SE NC too. I can't imagine SC coastal regions, storm surge plus this amt of wind/rain. I mentioned this in the other thread. The shape of the coast from GA up to NC is really going to allow some high storm surge with this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 A family member in savannah is reporting gas lines and grocery store shortages. She is coming up tonight and I'm headed down Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 GA would get crushed, the caveat though is the GFS track has the center on the coast and it will weaken a lot, this thing wont stay a strong or probably even weak hurricane if the center rides up 400 miles of Florida coast before getting to GA....this will still push tons of water into GA and SC but if it stayed 75 miles offshore before getting up there it would be worse..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 25 minutes ago, packbacker said: This is bad for FL/GA/SC coast, per this run. SE NC too. I can't imagine SC coastal regions, storm surge plus this amt of wind/rain. Storm surge water lines were 20 feet 10 miles north of CHS in Hugo, 13 feet on IOP. Different angle, but if this storm hugs the coast and is down around 940 or lower along with that rain. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Ugh! I hope nobody lets their guard down. The most worrisome is the potentially historic flooding, regardless of the exact placement. It's pretty much guaranteed to put down widespread 10+ amounts of rain with the expected slowdown. Some areas will have hurricane force winds on top of that. Power outages and widespread damage is highly probable for many areas. I sure hope that the media plays this right and not flopping with every model run. Yeah i think the biggest problems for ga and the carolinas could be the rain as it seems like there is a decent chance mathew makes it on shore and weakens in florida. What will be interesting to see though is how a much weaker system would move...if it does weaken a lot. I would think it might not feel the trough as much being a shallower system and maybe not get as far north but then again shallower systems often will be pushed westward more the low level flow around ridges. It probably won't become shallow enough for that to happen unless it gets really far inland but given the margin for error any difference could be significant in terms of impact, strength, track, etc. 4 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: I mentioned this in the other thread. The shape of the coast from GA up to NC is really going to allow some high storm surge with this track. It really is a unique track...maybe the hurricane historians could tell us if there has been any track similar to this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, Lookout said: Yeah i think the biggest problems for ga and the carolinas could be the rain as it seems like there is a decent chance mathew makes it on shore and weakens in florida. What will be interesting to see though is how a much weaker system would move...if it does weaken a lot. I would think it might not feel the trough as much being a shallower system and maybe not get as far north but then again shallower systems often will be pushed westward more the low level flow around ridges. It probably won't become shallow enough for that to happen unless it gets really far inland but given the margin for error any difference could be significant in terms of impact, strength, track, etc. It really is a unique track...maybe the hurricane historians could tell us if there has been any track similar to this before. sea islands hurricane 1893. Coastal hugger. Made landfall between Savannah and Hilton Head, absolutely raked Charleston. (in regards to Coastal hugging from NE Fl to SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, Stormsfury said: sea islands hurricane 1893. Coastal hugger. Made landfall between Savannah and Hilton Head, absolutely raked Charleston. Thanks..so it's been quite a long time. Always cool to see something so rare. Looks a lot like the 12z cmc. 12z cmc is a bit further west and agrees with the other models. In fact it brings some decent rains into the western carolinas and ohhhh so close to even giving ne ga some appreciable rain. I've been a little curious as to why the models, in particular the gfs are so dry across eastern ga and the western carolinas...would think there would at least be some half decent bands of showers/storms at it's closest approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Hearing as expected Western Haiti got obliterated: Still looking for pics of worst hit area. Saw some from Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 8 minutes ago, Stormsfury said: sea islands hurricane 1893. Coastal hugger. Made landfall between Savannah and Hilton Head, absolutely raked Charleston. (in regards to Coastal hugging from NE Fl to SC Interesting...very similar except the loop mathew is expected to make. 12z uk looks very similar to the canadian..looks like you could have some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, Lookout said: Thanks..so it's been quite a long time. Always cool to see something so rare. 12z cmc is a bit further west and agrees with the other models. In fact it brings some decent rains into the western carolinas and ohhhh so close to even giving ne ga some appreciable rain. I've been a little curious as to why the models, in particular the gfs are so dry across eastern ga and the western carolinas...would think there would at least be some half decent bands of showers/storms at it's closest approach. The GFS may not have shown the extreme rainfalls because it looked tonme that some kind of transition was taking place. The 850mb winds were modeled quite strongly though from SE GA to Eastern South Carolina from hr 78 and remaining in the Lowcounty of SC thru hour 96! 64kt to 80kt 850mb winds! Thank goodness I can use tropical tidbits model page on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Lot more precip back in central/western NC on the UKMET at hour 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Hearing as expected Western Haiti got obliterated: Still looking for pics of worst hit area. Saw some from Cuba. wanted to share this link from FB, from our dear friends at Place of Hope in Haiti. Believe there are more on the page. Place of Hope Haiti post Matthew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Lot more precip back in central/western NC on the UKMET at hour 72 This thing may be close to where Hermine was as far as the precip on it's west side. We got close to 3/4 of an inch here from him and now the GFS is showing .30-.50 near me now with of course much more southeast of here. The sharp cutoff is just northwest of me for now, where areas withing 20 miles from me get very little as it stands at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 20 minutes ago, Stormsfury said: sea islands hurricane 1893. Coastal hugger. Made landfall between Savannah and Hilton Head, absolutely raked Charleston. (in regards to Coastal hugging from NE Fl to SC yikes......killed 1000's in the Beaufort area......and was only a Cat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 13 minutes ago, UpStateCAD said: yikes......killed 1000's in the Beaufort area......and was only a Cat 3 Much different in today's world. People are informed, educated on the impact, and can get out of the way much easier. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 27 minutes ago, Lookout said: Interesting...very similar except the loop mathew is expected to make. 12z uk looks very similar to the canadian..looks like you could have some fun. Yeah. Not exactly fun but it is what it is. Guidance on the 12z cycle bring Matthew to make landfall or be within about 50 miles of CHS. Could be a colossal raking of the coast and just inland counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 10 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Much different in today's world. People are informed, educated on the impact, and can get out of the way much easier. TW agree......but I own property down there......believe me, there will be a lot of folks who think they can ride this out. To me the amount of surge that area will receive will be tough to forecast properly and it will probably come late in the game. There could be a number of people caught off guard and be in harms way if things unfold wrong. Those islands were under 10 feet of water in that storm.....even today who would expect that from a category 3 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Anyone know the last major hurricane to make landfall along Florida's east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Anyone know the last major hurricane to make landfall along Florida's east coast? Andrew in 1992 if you count Miami on the East coast and not the South Coast. Otherwise it would be the storm on August 26, 1949 that hit Lantana/ Lake Worth as a cat 4. BTW, this is land fall hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, WeatherNC said: Anyone know the last major hurricane to make landfall along Florida's east coast? Jeanne was 115-120 at landfall in 2004.....I cant remember anything hitting north of that in ages.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 hour ago, Lookout said: Yeah i think the biggest problems for ga and the carolinas could be the rain as it seems like there is a decent chance mathew makes it on shore and weakens in florida. What will be interesting to see though is how a much weaker system would move...if it does weaken a lot. I would think it might not feel the trough as much being a shallower system and maybe not get as far north but then again shallower systems often will be pushed westward more the low level flow around ridges. It probably won't become shallow enough for that to happen unless it gets really far inland but given the margin for error any difference could be significant in terms of impact, strength, track, etc. It really is a unique track...maybe the hurricane historians could tell us if there has been any track similar to this before. With Georgia's relatively small coastline and the curve it seems like getting landfall in Ga is rather unique. However, it has been a pretty dry (and boring) late summer/early fall. We could really use some good rains up this way from a tropical system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Trend for GEFS, showing west shift and flood threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Trend for GEFS, showing west shift and flood threat. Have you seen the individual members yet? Are there still two camps with some faster and some doing the slow loop? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Have you seen the individual members yet? Are there still two camps with some faster and some doing the slow loop? Thanks! Pretty much all do the loop but short term, some climb more then others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Euro...clearly the trough coming west is digging more then previous runs through 48. Will be interesting to see how high he can climb before getting kicked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Euro seems faster at least 12 hrs faster.....could get further north ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 hours ago, Avdave said: Listening to Gov McCrory and he is in love with the Euro model. He is hoping it is right. Weird to see a politician using and calling out a certain wx model Science is not a strong point of the current NC leadership. Remember, we passed a bill banning sea rise on the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Yep, at 75 over CHS, hitting ILM hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Yep, at 75 over CHS, hitting ILM hard. Ugh! How's the precip field look compared to the GEFS you posted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Stalling/pivoting just south of ILM, NC/SC heavy rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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