Stump Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 1:37 PM, buckeyefan1 said: Please stop posting....just stop.......I'm tired of reading the same comments from you in all of the Matthew threads. Enough already Expand Little grumpy this morning, but lets be honest he is correct. 2 days ago NC was bracing for impact, now FL should be possibly worried about being hit twice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 1:44 PM, Stump said: Little grumpy this morning, but lets be honest he is correct. 2 days ago NC was bracing for impact, now FL should be possibly worried about being hit twice? Expand I don't believe anyone pulled your string, but lets be honest.....he's a troll. Reading more and posting less would help your posting skills tremendously.....just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 1:44 PM, Stump said: Little grumpy this morning, but lets be honest he is correct. 2 days ago NC was bracing for impact, now FL should be possibly worried about being hit twice? Expand Two days ago we were forecasting for five days out. Now we are talking about 3 days. The cone of uncertainty narrows rapidly as the time before event gets closer. Reality is FL is in much more danger due to the lead time. Yes I agree with Harvard as well. NC/SC landfall wouldn't shock me but it isn't the most likely outcome anymore IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Banhammer incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 1:24 PM, Hvward said: Agreed. This is a dangerous system for people on east coast of FL and could cause significant damage. Over the past few days the threat in FL has increased greatly. Models will continue to adjust because there are sooo many variables that are having an effect on Matthew's track. I have a feeling we will continue to see variation in the track and wouldn't be surprised to see models trend back to an SC/NC landfall. We are 2.5 days out from this system reaching SC. 3-4 model runs ago the consensus was that it would likely miss the FL coast, but since then the models have deviated. Whats to say they don't have the track wrong now? Expand Yeah there are several different camps now in the models and most of the variation is the trough over the central plains the models that keep it stronger longer are faster north...several of the Hi-Res models are seeing it now and they mostly stay more NNW and spare Florida but increase the threat to SC/NC.....the Euro ENS also seem to support a more up the coast track again still more questions than answers http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2016100506&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=0 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016100506&fh=6 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw®ion=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2016100500&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 1:54 PM, LithiaWx said: Banhammer incoming Expand that escalated quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 1:59 PM, No snow for you said: that escalated quickly. Expand I think Brick killed a guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Yep....Stump is gone.... Now back to your regular scheduled program Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Looking better and better. Recon about 45 mins ago found 103 sfmr, so maybe 11am will bump to 120mph. Looks reasonable to get to 130mph in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 2:10 PM, packbacker said: Looking better and better. Recon about 45 mins ago found 103 sfmr, so maybe 11am will bump to 120mph. Looks reasonable to get to 130mph in the next 24 hours. Expand North side looks to have ingested some dry air. Where is it coming from? The mountains in Cuba? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 2:15 PM, LithiaWx said: North side looks to have ingested some dry air. Where is it coming from? The mountains in Cuba? Expand That's just a result of the interaction from Cuba, no dry air near the core....the CDO should rebuild rather quickly, once it gets established we should see the pressure begin to drop pretty good again 130-140 is definitely likely again if that happens..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 2:15 PM, LithiaWx said: North side looks to have ingested some dry air. Where is it coming from? The mountains in Cuba? Expand Yep, would think so, no dry air in it's path for next 24-36 hours and possibly longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Well the 12z NAM (..I know the NAM) at hr 39 is farther west closer to the 6z GFS (at the same time period); but it is a little farther north meaning it's quicker with the storm movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 (again for what it's worth) The 12z NAM has a hit on the central SC coast. It then rides along the coast into NC to hr 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 2:27 PM, FallsLake said: Well the 12z NAM (..I know the NAM) at hr 39 is farther west closer to the 6z GFS (at the same time period); but it is a little farther north meaning it's quicker with the storm movement. Expand Yeah the NAM 12K run is brutal for SC......4K even worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Why are some folks saying don't even bother using the NAM for tropical systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 2:53 PM, downeastnc said: Yeah the NAM 12K run is brutal for SC......4K even worse Expand 4k did pretty well for Hermine track, and looks like the UK/Euro at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 total precip from 12z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 won't shock me to see the 12z runs tick closer to the sc coast, nam showing more sc effects than the gfs/euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 2:56 PM, packbacker said: 4k did pretty well for Hermine track, and looks like the UK/Euro at 60. Expand That's faster than the Euro by a good 150-200 miles at 60 hrs....it might not translate down the road but it hammers Sav up to Charleston The NAM 12K is even further east and north and spares a lot of Florida with the worse by keeping the center a good 100-150 miles offshore.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 3:05 PM, DopplerWx said: won't shock me to see the 12z runs tick closer to the sc coast, nam showing more sc effects than the gfs/euro Expand It also wouldn't surprise me if this climbed a little higher where a bigger impact would be between MYR-ILM. Don't think RAH will have to worry about to much about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Due to the shape of the coast and the angle the storm will be approaching, the GA coast could have some very serious storm surge flooding issues. The flow is going to stack up enormous amounts of water if this thing parallels the coast like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Listening to Gov McCrory and he is in love with the Euro model. He is hoping it is right. Weird to see a politician using and calling out a certain wx model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 so nam is east, gfs/euro has a se fl landfall. all within 48hrs of landfall. the spread of possible impacts are wild. preps will have to take place from florida to sc. very floyd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Would think this climbs a little higher. You have a stronger Bermuda ridge, Nicole is running into it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 3:53 PM, packbacker said: Would think this climbs a little higher. You have a stronger Bermuda ridge, Nicole is running into it too. Expand so many variables. if it ticks east and stays offshore fl vs. coming ashore and riding up the coast will cause huge differences in strength. not to mention if it ticks north and causes more impacts to the chs to myrtle area. so many unanswered questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 3:57 PM, DopplerWx said: so many variables. if it ticks east and stays offshore fl vs. coming ashore and riding up the coast will cause huge differences in strength. not to mention if it ticks north and causes more impacts to the chs to myrtle area. so many unanswered questions. Expand This is bad for FL/GA/SC coast, per this run. SE NC too. I can't imagine SC coastal regions, storm surge plus this amt of wind/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 UK looks to have climbed higher then GFS, looks like at 96 its east of ILM. Waiting on the earlier panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 CMC a little further north then GFS and really impacts NC/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 On 10/5/2016 at 4:13 PM, packbacker said: UK looks to have climbed higher then GFS, looks like at 96 its east of ILM. Waiting on the earlier panels. Expand Ugh! I hope nobody lets their guard down. The most worrisome is the potentially historic flooding, regardless of the exact placement. It's pretty much guaranteed to put down widespread 10+ amounts of rain with the expected slowdown. Some areas will have hurricane force winds on top of that. Power outages and widespread damage is highly probable for many areas. I sure hope that the media plays this right and not flopping with every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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