DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 this run may landfall in fl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Port-Au-Prince winds are now sustained at 74mph. Interesting since the storm is farther away now. Past few hours they were only at 16mph. Actually looking at the past 36 hour observations these are the strongest winds they have had so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 may make a hard right offshore sc here shortly. slower run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 12 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: this run may landfall in fl. Terrible run ( impact wise ) for the florida coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 The 00z GFS rakes the entire FL east coast. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, superjames1992 said: The 00z GFS rakes the entire FL east coast. Yikes. Then rakes the SE coast of Georgia and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Trough going to miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 offshore sc headed ots. every run today keeps it further offshore the carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Looks like trough misses. Headed south at 96hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 GFS caving to the Euro? Ivan redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Someone post ukie when its out please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Apparently Matthew left something in Florida. Florida hasn't been hit with a major hurricane in 11 years. 00Z GFS wants to change that and make it two major hurricanes in a few days by the same storm. That run was the most insane run I have seen. Also, can't forget about Nicole dancing around as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 14 minutes ago, metalicwx366 said: Apparently Matthew left something in Florida. Florida hasn't been hit with a major hurricane in 11 years. 00Z GFS wants to change that and make it two major hurricanes in a few days by the same storm. That run was the most insane run I have seen. Also, can't forget about Nicole dancing around as well. I do not think I've ever seen a run like that, where it looped a storm all the way around back over the same area. But if that Bermuda high hangs around there, its rotation could spin Matthew right back around like that. That would not be a good thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 hours ago, metalicwx366 said: Apparently Matthew left something in Florida. Florida hasn't been hit with a major hurricane in 11 years. 00Z GFS wants to change that and make it two major hurricanes in a few days by the same storm. That run was the most insane run I have seen. Also, can't forget about Nicole dancing around as well. Fujiwhara effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 6z NAM keeps Matthew pretty well offshore of Fla and is very close to a landfall at OBX end of run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 FWIW...0z EPS mean does climb further north off SE coast than the 12z run. Little more troughy over US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Still perilously close to the NC/SC coast and still day 4 out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 trends are def encouraging for sc, but it is a really tough forecast. could easily see models shift back to the landfall they were showing 48hrs ago. i think you still have to go fwd with the evacs because all it takes is a 50-75mile shift west to put the sc coast back in harms way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 The trough has to wash out for the Euro/GFS solution to work...the CMC and NAM both hold the trough deeper so they are able to move up the coast, there are some pretty big timing differences between the CMC and Euro/GFS. The 00Z Euro at 24 hrs ( 00Z Thur really) has it here This is where it is now...so to my eye it looks fast, the Euro has it around 23N by 7pm, if by this evening its further NE than the forecast points then I would worry more for the SC/NC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 15 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The trough has to wash out for the Euro/GFS solution to work...the CMC and NAM both hold the trough deeper so they are able to move up the coast, there are some pretty big timing differences between the CMC and Euro/GFS. The 00Z Euro at 24 hrs ( 00Z Thur really) has it here This is where it is now...so to my eye it looks fast, the Euro has it around 23N by 7pm, if by this evening its further NE than the forecast points then I would worry more for the SC/NC coast looks like he is making his way nw at a decent clip. will be interested to see the 18z/00z runs tonight now that he is clear from cuba and in open water. may not make a difference but the fwd speed will be vital. and that convection west of the core really is popping this morning, should see a sig ramp up today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 19 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: trends are def encouraging for sc, but it is a really tough forecast. could easily see models shift back to the landfall they were showing 48hrs ago. i think you still have to go fwd with the evacs because all it takes is a 50-75mile shift west to put the sc coast back in harms way. Flooding still could be really bad and is modeled that way for coastal SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, DopplerWx said: looks like he is making his way nw at a decent clip. will be interested to see the 18z/00z runs tonight now that he is clear from cuba and in open water. may not make a difference but the fwd speed will be vital. Yeah I mean maybe its wrong to assume anything by it, but if the models that get close to Fl and then loop are all slow and he is moving faster and that puts him closer to the CMC/NAM plots one would think maybe they have a better read on the trough and ridge.....I just don't want the NC folks to let their guard down yet...the RGEM run is what we need to see verify to put NC back in play...its much stronger with the trough... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2016100506&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 The danger has leasended for North Carolina but increased for FL and GA. The imby nature of the recents posts would allow one to let their guard down when in reality the danger is going up for a lot of folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 35 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: looks like he is making his way nw at a decent clip. will be interested to see the 18z/00z runs tonight now that he is clear from cuba and in open water. may not make a difference but the fwd speed will be vital. and that convection west of the core really is popping this morning, should see a sig ramp up today. I'm a bit confused why they don't have him intensifying more than they do since shear is expected to actually decrease to next to nothing and he's over 30c waters for the next few days. I wouldn't be shocked that once it brushes off the effects of land interaction we see another large increase in intensity the next 24 hours. 27 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah I mean maybe its wrong to assume anything by it, but if the models that get close to Fl and then loop are all slow and he is moving faster and that puts him closer to the CMC/NAM plots one would think maybe they have a better read on the trough and ridge.....I just don't want the NC folks to let their guard down yet...the RGEM run is what we need to see verify to put NC back in play...its much stronger with the trough... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2016100506&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=66 FWIW, over the past couple of days all the models have been underestimating the observed strength of the ridge/heights off the east coast, with the nam being the most off. So I would be a little surprised if it ends up being more right with the track. At this point, I have to think the euro and uk are the ones to follow the most..they have been the most consistent and have lead the way on these trends while all the other models have been playing catchup. Hard to believe we could be looking at a second florida landfall by mathew in a week's time and beyond. Of course the question is strength but the gfs seems to suggest it could still be a cane by then. Wild stuff regardless of however strong or weak it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Local mets in e nc are saying this is looking like a non event for us with the latest info from nhc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 For those interested, the second press conference with the SC governor is starting up. In her words, due to the slowing of the storm Charleston and Beaufort are going to proceed with recommended evacuation at 3. More northeastward counties will start tomorrow morning. Lanes on I-26 / 526 being reversed at 3, busses arriving in North Charleston to take people to Greenville at noon. She recommends traveling past Columbia due to a shortage of hotel rooms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 The danger has leasended for North Carolina but increased for FL and GA. The imby nature of the recents posts would allow one to let their guard down when in reality the danger is going up for a lot of folks Agreed. This is a dangerous system for people on east coast of FL and could cause significant damage. Over the past few days the threat in FL has increased greatly. Models will continue to adjust because there are sooo many variables that are having an effect on Matthew's track. I have a feeling we will continue to see variation in the track and wouldn't be surprised to see models trend back to an SC/NC landfall. We are 2.5 days out from this system reaching SC. 3-4 model runs ago the consensus was that it would likely miss the FL coast, but since then the models have deviated. Whats to say they don't have the track wrong now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, Hvward said: Agreed. This is a dangerous system for people on east coast of FL and could cause significant damage. Over the past few days the threat in FL has increased greatly. Models will continue to adjust because there are sooo many variables that are having an effect on Matthew's track. I have a feeling we will continue to see variation in the track and wouldn't be surprised to see models trend back to an SC/NC landfall. We are 2.5 days out from this system reaching SC. 3-4 model runs ago the consensus was that it would likely miss the FL coast, but since then the models have deviated. Whats to say they don't have the track wrong now? This has been going back and forth for several days. From staying off shore, to hitting NC, to hitting Florida. Still nothing set in stone to where Matthew will or won't go. It's still very much in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: This has been going back and forth for several days. From staying off shore, to hitting NC, to hitting Florida. Still nothing set in stone to where Matthew will or won't go. It's still very much in the air. Please stop posting....just stop.......I'm tired of reading the same comments from you in all of the Matthew threads. Enough already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Evacuation/lane reversal starts at 3 for the Charkleston and Beaufort zones. Georgetown and Horry don't start until tomorrow. 315 buses coming form Greenville to North Charleston to ship people out. Said in Haley press conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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