Cold Rain Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Its there but the trend is to weaken it, this might not be what really happens or the storm may be faster than forecast....there are still lots of stuff going on the speed of the storm north will be the biggest factor IMO, if its slow the ridge will be able to shove it west more, if its faster then it wont move as much west and thus make it farther north....the models are liable to change again after the 00Z tonight....fresh data will give it a idea of how strong the trough is etc.... Yep, good post. I think Nicole will play a role also, in regard to a more northerly component, if she can strengthen more than forecast, which is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 interesting link on how they will do the evacuation routes from Charleston SC metro area http://www.sctraffic.org/centralmap.html#North Charleston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Problem is the one trend thats there on all models now is for Matt to travel further west and closer to the FL coast. This means it has to travel further/longer route to climb to reach say ILM. By that time, either it has been kicked OTS or like Euro shows it gets trapped further south. When it was making landfall in NC, like 12z GFS yesterday, it traveled a more straight line to up to the GA/SC coast. Like you guys said above, if you want it to reach NC/SC it will need to speed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Chaos already in the Charleston area. Every single gas station that has gas has a line out onto the main roads. Took us 55 minutes to go from James Island to the airport, usually about a 20 minute drive. Most grocery stores are out of water and bread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Bastardi with WeatherBell was just live on Sirius XM Highlights: Just offshore Florida less than 60 miles Slows considerably Jacksonville to Savannah Charleston gets hit or near miss Unsure north of Charleston as may fade right High Chance Matthew then gets left behind Watch the ECMWF. it has been within 35 miles near term so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: Problem is the one trend thats there on all models now is for Matt to travel further west and closer to the FL coast. This means it has to travel further/longer route to climb to reach say ILM. By that time, either it has been kicked OTS or like Euro shows it gets trapped further south. When it was making landfall in NC, like 12z GFS yesterday, it traveled a more straight line to up to the GA/SC coast. Like you guys said above, if you want it to reach NC/SC it will need to speed up. That was the trend today. The trend overnight was further west. The trend before was further east. We had one today so far west it hit Florida. Not sure we really have any trends with the models showing so.many different solutions in a 12 hour period. Or maybe they are just 12 hours trends. Tomorrow could be totally different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 12 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: That was the trend today. The trend overnight was further west. The trend before was further east. We had one today so far west it hit Florida. Not sure we really have any trends with the models showing so.many different solutions in a 12 hour period. Or maybe they are just 12 hours trends. Tomorrow could be totally different. Possibly...but over past few runs, trend has been for a stronger Bermuda ridge which causes track further west towards FL coast. Also, trough coming in from the west has been less amplified, over a few runs now. Still several days to go as you are pointing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, packbacker said: Possibly...but over past few runs, trend has been for a stronger Bermuda ridge which causes track further west towards FL coast. Also, trough coming in from the west has been less amplified, over a few runs now. Still several days to go as you are pointing out. Yeah, just saying the trends don't seem to last long. As soon as we think it's a trend, the models starting going the other direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, Brick Tamland said: Yeah, just saying the trends don't seem to last long. As soon as we think it's a trend, the models starting going the other direction. Look at this trend, watch the ridge connect back to the west causing flatter flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Latest recon/drop showing 160kt sfmr...rain tainted I would assume, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, packbacker said: Latest recon/drop showing 160kt sfmr...rain tainted I would assume, LOL. On the main forum a poster said it could be because the winds are being channeled between the mountains of the two islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Latest recon/drop showing 160kt sfmr...rain tainted I would assume, LOL. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Good overview... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I have a question about a CAD. It looks like a high pressure system to the north may be setting up could that high pressure "push" Matthew inland?it is not a strong high pressure system but it is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 22 minutes ago, No snow for you said: I have a question about a CAD. It looks like a high pressure system to the north may be setting up could that high pressure "push" Matthew inland?it is not a strong high pressure system but it is there. The winds aloft control the steering for hurricanes. Below is a map of the current 300mb-850mb layer mean steering winds. As we go forward in time on the forecast models, the high pressure ridge to the NE of Matthew out in the central Atlantic will build a bit to the west and force Matthew to move toward the east coast of Florida. As a result of the sharp ridge over NY/PA, there is indeed a surface high pressure over New England that is sending NE surface winds into our region. These things kind of go hand in hand, i.e. hurricanes moving into the SE coast from the SE will tend to have ridging aloft over New England, with an associated high pressure at the surface also over New England...but the key component steering the hurricane are the winds aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 0z as expected now well east Let's see of the favorable trend can hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stump Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 SOB, am I the only one that hopes for these things to hit NC just to spice stuff up. I don't wish harm on anybody or anyone's property but dang I need something to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 8 minutes ago, Stump said: SOB, am I the only one that hopes for these things to hit NC just to spice stuff up. I don't wish harm on anybody or anyone's property but dang I need something to look at. I'm afraid you won't want to lose any sleep tonight, staying up for the 0Zs. Going to most likely disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Even Walgreens is closing in the Charleston area. Closed at 10pm, not opening again until after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Going east-------------- Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I'm afraid you won't want to lose any sleep tonight, staying up for the 0Zs. Going to most likely disappoint. In a couple of months we will watch these storms cut west of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, franklin NCwx said: In a couple of months we will watch these storms cut west of the apps. Lol every stinking time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 31 minutes ago, Stump said: SOB, am I the only one that hopes for these things to hit NC just to spice stuff up. I don't wish harm on anybody or anyone's property but dang I need something to look at. Yeah...you need a hobby big time to "spice things up". Hoping for a landfalling hurricane with no damage? Id like to a brief nuclear exchange...you know...just to see the mushroom clouds and fireball nothing major dont want anyone to get hurt but damn im bored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stump Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 7 minutes ago, LMA1973 said: Yeah...you need a hobby big time to "spice things up". Hoping for a landfalling hurricane with no damage? Id like to a brief nuclear exchange...you know...just to see the mushroom clouds and fireball nothing major dont want anyone to get hurt but damn im bored. Annnnnddd there is the person that took it the wrong way. Slower than I expected honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Ukie come out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Ukie come out yet? It comes out on crappy maps shortly after the GFS which hasn't come out yet. (well, its running now/slowly coming out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 This is the model to see in my opinion. Been doin well recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: This is the model to see in my opinion. Been doin well recently From what I understand, UKMET used to have a bias or two with tropical systems in the Caribbean/Gulf areas. I have no idea if these flaws have been fixed. Not sure if it is/was the upper low or what... but you are right the UKMET has been quite consistent being on the Western edge of guidance. If anything subtle shifts to the East at best ... still riding the SE coasts of FL, GA, SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I know in winter it sniffs out trends usually before all other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, Shawn said: From what I understand, UKMET used to have a bias or two with tropical systems in the Caribbean/Gulf areas. I have no idea if these flaws have been fixed. Not sure if it is/was the upper low or what... but you are right the UKMET has been quite consistent being on the Western edge of guidance. If anything subtle shifts to the East at best ... still riding the SE coasts of FL, GA, SC. Substantial upgrade of the UKMet a few years ago....it seems to be doing better with tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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