superjames1992 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Thanks guys! Yep, just edited my post above. Also, the TS force wind probs declined from around 40% in the Triangle to about 10-20%. It's all just noise at this point anyway, really. Yeah, seems to me the latest trends look bad for FL/GA, but better for NC/SC (particularly inland). We shall see. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1416W5_NL+gif/153536W5_NL_sm.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The Ft. Lauderdale area has been upgraded to a Hurricane Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 If the NHC is correct with this as of 5 pm, takes it just east of Havelock and then over Pamlico sound to south of whalebone/South Nags Head. the flooding from this would just be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Anyone heard about preparations at Fort Stewart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 close to fl landfall at 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Plains trough a little flatter, been trending that way the past few runs. It can only climb so high when it flattens. Question is...does it get kicked or trapped. My guess is trapped a little further north then the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Really keeps the eye right off the East coast of FLA so far on this 18z gfs run. I mean right on the coastline. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Avdave said: Really keeps the eye right off the East coast of FLA so far on this 18z gfs run. I mean right on the coastline. wow Yeah the storm would be weakened a lot with half of it over land for days like that......even if that land is Florida.....is gonna go east again I bet its to slow and the trough isn't digging fast enough to pull it north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah the storm would be weakened a lot with half of it over land for days like that......even if that land is Florida.....is gonna go east again I bet its to slow and the trough isn't digging fast enough to pull it north Still not that bad at 982mb but yes weaker. Will be interesting when 0z rolls out to see if there is similarities or changes like the 12z Euro which was a wacky run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Avdave said: Still not that bad at 982mb but yes weaker. Will be interesting when 0z rolls out to see if there is similarities or changes like the 12z Euro which was a wacky run 960mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: 960mb. Not showing that off of Fla on trop tidbits, it shows it way weaker at 989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 So really for this latest GFS to be right it HAS to hug the coast perfectly like that, this "slows" the storm down enough to prevent it from coming in further north, it spends time moving west instead of north.....and its why the earlier runs and the NAM are "faster" they don't hug the coast and move more in a straight line getting to the SC/NC border before the trough can shove it east...the key is why do the models come so far west....the weaker trough lets the ridge push the storm more west and less north I guess....so in the last 24 hrs its gone from hitting Myrtle/Southport to racking FL to SC then exiting stage right before NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Avdave said: Not showing that off of Fla on trop tidbits, it shows it way weaker at 989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: Poor Hilton Head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Yep...Euro had the right idea of flatter trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I feel like the GFS has been pretty consistent over the past few runs with its track up to around Sunday. At hour 90, that could be doing some major damage near Charleston, and of course more rain where they've had it over the past couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Funny how far apart these are with the storm but how similar they are with all the features......timing is the key for NC to take a hit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, J.C. said: I feel like the GFS has been pretty consistent over the past few runs with its track up to around Sunday. At hour 90, that could be doing some major damage near Charleston, and of course more rain where they've had it over the past couple of months. Yeah, a lot of people will poo-poo this run, but Hilton Head and Charleston get smashed. Even 50 miles inland, you'll see tons of tree damage, probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, Hugo said: Yeah, a lot of people will poo-poo this run, but Hilton Head and Charleston get smashed. Even 50 miles inland, you'll see tons of tree damage, probably. Yep, all the way back to I 95 corridor likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Hugo said: Yeah, a lot of people will poo-poo this run, but Hilton Head and Charleston get smashed. Even 50 miles inland, you'll see tons of tree damage, probably. just look how big matthew is now, after its strengthens in the bahamas it will be massive. even skirting the coast will cause major impacts inland sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Yep, if the euro/UK and now GFS is right about the flatter conus and a ridge does build in pushing Matt west slowly it could get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Is it realy possible for the euro and its ensembles be right? Just really bizarre that so many show the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 South Carolina Evacuation Zones https://scemd.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Viewer/index.html?appid=4735ae7b1908428f8cf1995bafd7fd28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Navgem makes landfall over Miami and is headed to the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I'm starting to wonder if we're heading towards a central FLA landfall solution. The main reason we're seeing the swings in the models is b/c they are weakening the incoming trough and it's showing up as being less amplified. This is why the euro left Matthew behind. If this trend continues its eventually going to just ram into florida. Tonights runs will be critical w/ fresh data. Another scenario we haven't seen yet is the hurricane making landfall in the savannah area and then meandering around in eastern GA/SC for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I will say this, any solution showing this being left behind by the trough after making landfall would be catastrophic on the flooding scale. We should hope that doesn't happen for our sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Matthew along with Nicole will only push it further west. There is mulitiple broad lows with in the trough that is assoicated that will eventually kick Matthew. But IMO watching the cloud flow its still pushing west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 [reaching]Maybe the energy associated with the trough is not on the grid yet? [/reaching] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Euro and UKMET leading the way with the least amount of track error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: [reaching]Maybe the energy associated with the trough is not on the grid yet? [/reaching] Its there but the trend is to weaken it, this might not be what really happens or the storm may be faster than forecast....there are still lots of stuff going on the speed of the storm north will be the biggest factor IMO, if its slow the ridge will be able to shove it west more, if its faster then it wont move as much west and thus make it farther north....the models are liable to change again after the 00Z tonight....fresh data will give it a idea of how strong the trough is etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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