downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: Let's see how the Euro does in the short term, it doesn't have the center getting north of 20N until after 10pm tonight. GFS does seem to have the right track for today, making landfall on SE tip of Cuba at 5pm and getting to about 20.5N at 10pm tonight. Starting to see Cubas affect on him that left side looking rough....eye look stout on radar still though....surprised that east side recovered so fast, Haiti has to be getting ****ed up right now so bad..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 16 minutes ago, packbacker said: Meanwhile the early 18z model runs shifted east. Are these models based on GFS data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Finally seeing the members, still a ton of spread at hour 72. Maybe tomorrow we get more clarity before FL-NC is evacuated. 12z GEFS had more spread today too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, griteater said: Are these models based on GFS data? Good question, I just blindly look at them. I know the GFS/UK/GFDL/HWRF and a few others that I have never heard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 At hour 45, the 18z NAM looks like its ~75 miles or so west of 12z run at hour 51. Edit: At hour 48 its just a tad west of the same time on the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 It is going to be really hard for this thing to make any sort of meaningful inroads inland into the Carolinas (discounting the FL landfalls and stalling scenarios for now). I think we can start to feel much more confident about that. I would expect a clouds, possibly a few showers and breezy conditions around this area. Downeast and his crew are going to do much better in the rain/wind area, which really goes without saying, even if the thing stays offshore slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Does anyone have a precip map for South Carolina and Georgia on the Euro? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It is going to be really hard for this thing to make any sort of meaningful inroads inland into the Carolinas (discounting the FL landfalls and stalling scenarios for now). I think we can start to feel much more confident about that. I would expect a clouds, possibly a few showers and breezy conditions around this area. Downeast and his crew are going to do much better in the rain/wind area, which really goes without saying, even if the thing stays offshore slightly. agree. would have to speed up a good bit to give us any decent impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: It is going to be really hard for this thing to make any sort of meaningful inroads inland into the Carolinas (discounting the FL landfalls and stalling scenarios for now). I think we can start to feel much more confident about that. I would expect a clouds, possibly a few showers and breezy conditions around this area. Downeast and his crew are going to do much better in the rain/wind area, which really goes without saying, even if the thing stays offshore slightly. The drought just goes on for most of the southeast. I wish this storm would weaken to a TS and get into the gulf and move up through GA and the TN-NC border area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 At hour 57 its ~50 miles west of 12z and it's a strong storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 My point and click for MBY Friday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Hurricane conditions possible. Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 76. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely, mainly before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: At hour 57 its ~50 miles west of 12z and it's a strong storm. Doesn't look like it's going to stall it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: agree. would have to speed up a good bit to give us any decent impacts. Yeah, I wish it would get a move on. I wonder if Nicole will have any effect on the track. Could it send it more northwesterly or more northward an offset some of the kicking being done by the incoming trough? 4 minutes ago, jshetley said: The drought just goes on for most of the southeast. I wish this storm would weaken to a TS and get into the gulf and move up through GA and the TN-NC border area. You need to get one coming NNE out of the eastern Gulf. But like I said yesterday, storms coming out of the Gulf usually head north until they clear the SE. Then, they make the turn. Don't know why that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The trough is a bit more zonal, continuing today's theme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Doesn't look like it's going to stall it. At hour 69 still chugging north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It is going to be really hard for this thing to make any sort of meaningful inroads inland into the Carolinas (discounting the FL landfalls and stalling scenarios for now). I think we can start to feel much more confident about that. I would expect a clouds, possibly a few showers and breezy conditions around this area. Downeast and his crew are going to do much better in the rain/wind area, which really goes without saying, even if the thing stays offshore slightly. Way to early to say this......IF it takes the current NHC track RDU gets solid TS conditions.....the models are gonna move around a lot still the next few days a track over eastern NC is still on the table for sure.....this thing has TS winds extending out 150 miles in all directions . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah, I wish it would get a move on. I wonder if Nicole will have any effect on the track. Could it send it more northwesterly or more northward an offset some of the kicking being done by the incoming trough? You need to get one coming NNE out of the eastern Gulf. But like I said yesterday, storms coming out of the Gulf usually head north until they clear the SE. Then, they make the turn. Don't know why that is. well its moving pretty good atm. going to be close but the eyewall may skirt the e side of cuba at least partially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It is going to be really hard for this thing to make any sort of meaningful inroads inland into the Carolinas (discounting the FL landfalls and stalling scenarios for now). I think we can start to feel much more confident about that. I would expect a clouds, possibly a few showers and breezy conditions around this area. Downeast and his crew are going to do much better in the rain/wind area, which really goes without saying, even if the thing stays offshore slightly. Well, so far today what I take is that a FL landfall is in the cards and if the trough coming into the west coast doesn't dig then Matty can stall and cripple someone. Personally, I still lean more towards the whiff east then the stall off GA/SC coast. If you blend the GFS/Euro and you get a slower Matt like the Euro with a trough that digs like the GFS you could have a scenario where it grazes Fl and misses NC/SC wide right by a good margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Simulated radar at hour 72: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Falls, Nam is done through 84 on ewall. Brings it ashore around Myrtle Beach and is still moving north at 84. Plenty of rain with that one. But the LR Nam is an idiot, so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Look at the difference between the GFS/Euro at day 3, I don't think I have ever seen that big a difference at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Way to early to say this......IF it takes the current NHC track RDU gets solid TS conditions.....the models are gonna move around a lot still the next few days a track over eastern NC is still on the table for sure.....this thing has TS winds extending out 150 miles in all directions . Yeah, I hear you. But it seems like the subtle trends today are to soften the trough a bit and slow the system a bit. I don't favor a stall or an east coast of FL it, but I do think a scenario kind of like Pack laid out below is looking more and more likely. It slows enough so as not to gain too much latitude and then the flatter trough kicks it east, wiffing the entire coast. 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Well, so far today what I take is that a FL landfall is in the cards and if the trough coming into the west coast doesn't dig then Matty can stall and cripple someone. Personally, I still lean more towards the whiff east then the stall off GA/SC coast. If you blend the GFS/Euro and you get a slower Matt like the Euro with a trough that digs like the GFS you could have a scenario where it grazes Fl and misses NC/SC wide right by a good margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Look at the difference between the GFS/Euro at day 3, I don't think I have ever seen that big a difference at this lead time. You have clearly not followed winter weather with us before! Seriously though, the Euro could have had some problems today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Falls, Nam is done through 84 on ewall. Brings it ashore around Myrtle Beach and is still moving north at 84. Plenty of rain with that one. But the LR Nam is an idiot, so.... Oh I agree, but it's something to look at as we wait for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 7 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Oh I agree, but it's something to look at as we wait for the GFS. Truestory! 5pm advisory has winds at 140. Haven't seen the track cone yet. Edit: Track out now. Slowed by 6 hours and adjusted slightly to the east. Maybe makes landfall at Hatteras...maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The Euro is all over the place though, its the least consistent model so far....the NAM actually makes the most sense because that looks familiar, its just how the storms always seem to end up going when they come in like this......that doesn't mean it right by any stretch but we have seen storms more or less run just like that time and time again once they get off SC.....its either go do similar to the NAM or miss to the east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Truestory! 5pm advisory has winds at 140. Haven't seen the track cone yet. Looks like they have it tracking through the western Bahamas not far offshore of West Palm Beach, then 50ish miles offshore of Daytona Beach now as a major hurricane, with a curve and a potentially a landfall near Cape Lookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Truestory! 5pm advisory has winds at 140. Haven't seen the track cone yet. The cone has it staying offshore until hitting the outer banks. Then a possible landfall on cape cod. No real effects from Raleigh and Columbia and west on that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, downeastnc said: The Euro is all over the place though, its the least consistent model so far....the NAM actually makes the most sense because that looks familiar, its just how the storms always seem to end up going when they come in like this......that doesn't mean it right by any stretch but we have seen storms more or less run just like that time and time again once they get off SC.....its either go do similar to the NAM or miss to the east.... I think something like the NAM actually looks good. I'd just adjust a bit east, at this point. But who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: Looks like they have it tracking 50ish miles offshore of Daytona Beach now as a major hurricane, with a curve and a potentially a landfall near Cape Lookout. 3 minutes ago, jshetley said: The cone has it staying offshore until hitting the outer banks. Then a possible landfall on cape cod. No real effects from Raleigh and Columbia and west on that track. Thanks guys! Yep, just edited my post above. Also, the TS force wind probs declined from around 40% in the Triangle to about 10-20%. It's all just noise at this point anyway, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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