packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Trough in the plains flattens out, nutty run or is Euro the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Yes, that is way west than previous Euro runs. Wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, No snow for you said: The Navgem maybe right? If it shifts as much in the next 12 hours as it did in the last 12, it'll be near Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Over land from 72-84 then back over water just east of SAV at 84-87. Crazy run. Yep, GFS and CMC go east and whiff after being landfalls and the Euro goes WAAYYYY west and hits Florida...all is well in the model world hehe....gonna be a long week....smart money is it will all even out and we will see a strong Cat 2 maybe weak Cat 3 into the Myrtle to ILM area...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just rots east of SAV for 24+ hour, crazy run. Minimal impact to NC on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, Hugo said: If it shifts as much in the next 12 hours as it did in the last 12, it'll be near Tampa. yeah this is what about 100 miles or so further west than 0z? It's several hundred miles west of yesterday. 120 it is drifting off the sc coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Euro got off to a strange start. It makes landfall at 5pm today again over Haiti, over the far NW tip. It stalls there until 10pm tonight until then it finally starts moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 holy hell it moves it back to south florida by 168 lol. Obviously no where near as strong but still pretty unusual track to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 All coastal SC communities evacuating beginning tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 whatever is left of it ends up in the gulf of mexico by 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Lookout said: whatever is left of it ends up in the gulf of mexico by 192 the Ghost of Ivan. I think this EURO run suffered some serious sabotage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, Hugo said: All coastal SC communities evacuating beginning tomorrow. Its a tough call to make, and if it doesn't hit its gonna be second guessed forever, but a Cat 3 running from Charleston to Myrtle would be devastating on a level not seen before....glad its not up to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Stormsfury said: the Ghost of Ivan. I think this EURO run suffered some serious sabotage. Seriously....only about 2000 or 3000 miles difference from last night's run in it's position at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 SAV/HH would get crushed, 12-20" QPF across bulk of GA/SC coast, with strong winds for 24+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Hugo said: All coastal SC communities evacuating beginning tomorrow. They are announcing they are ready to evacuate, and are putting all the pieces in place today so they will be ready if the greenlight is needed. Basically putting the state and local infrastructure in place so if they pull the trigger tomorrow morning everything will be in place. They will announce tomorrow morning to pull the trigger. I can tell you from experience, it is a royal mess moving people off of the coast of central and S SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Guess we'll have to see if the Euro was drunk that run, or if Matthew is going to be drunk and do the loop-di-loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: They are announcing they are ready to evacuate, and are putting all the pieces in place today so they will be ready if the greenlight is needed. Basically putting the state and local infrastructure in place so if they pull the trigger tomorrow morning everything will be in place. They will announce tomorrow morning to pull the trigger. I can tell you from experience, it is a royal mess moving people off of the coast of central and S SC. Yeah Haley has said a few times she'd love to be able to pull back on the order, but you have to figure it would take a pretty massive model shift to cancel an evacuation once it's announced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I plan on driving down from DC to the VT vs UNC game in Chapel Hill on Saturday. I know there's talk of moving or cancelling the game. I'm guessing if that Euro track proves true, there'll be little impact to the triangle area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, Hugo said: Yeah Haley has said a few times she'd love to be able to pull back on the order, but you have to figure it would take a pretty massive model shift to cancel an evacuation once it's announced. Technically it's not "official" for the public but is official for the agency's. She's just telling people plan for it, we are putting all responders in place now so when they pull the trigger the state and local pieces will be in position and on the ground. I actually think this is prudent and smart way to do it considering the time it takes and past experiences with Hugo and Floyd. It takes forever to get people off of that coast, there are not many ways out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 it is all about the fwd speed from here on out. euro drags matthew while the gfs is a tick faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: it is all about the fwd speed from here on out. euro drags matthew while the gfs is a tick faster. Well we know the GFS has been to fast for Matt consistently the past few days. You have the UK and Euro in agreement of FL landfall at hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 EPS in fairly good agreement with Op showing potential landfall at hour 72...it's very close, maybe a hair east of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 12 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: it is all about the fwd speed from here on out. euro drags matthew while the gfs is a tick faster. going to be 1-2 days maybe more of the ole windshield wiper runs, just to keep us on our toes...NHC has to hate the latest model runs....doubt they move the track much at all at 5pm today lol...also his strength will help determine how much he influences the ridge to his NE, I think he is going to be hurt more than folks think. His west side looks rough ATM and once he gets north of the islands his southern inflow will be disrupted some, I could see him dropping to 110-115 mph by the morning...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 EPS in pretty good agreement with the Op on the stall at GA/SC border, through day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 If a cat 4 hurricane is going to hit Florida in 72 hours like the Euro shows, they are going to have to act fast to start evacuating folks. I think most thought it would miss Florida and run up the coast to possibly NC. That's what the last NHC track showed. Not a lot of time to mess around if the Euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Meanwhile the early 18z model runs shifted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Meanwhile the early 18z model runs shifted east. The irony here is that the 12Z went west and the GFS and CMC ended up east again, now that the 18Z are back east watch the GFS come back west..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 It's like spinning a roulette wheel. Where he goes, nobody knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Let's see how the Euro does in the short term, it doesn't have the center getting north of 20N until after 10pm tonight. GFS does seem to have the right track for today, making landfall on SE tip of Cuba at 5pm and getting to about 20.5N at 10pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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