shaggy Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Can anyone point to a storm where its 4 day plot didn't shift? I know this track looks bad but it will shift some and even small shifts mean changes to specific locations sensible weather from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Through 60...the plains trough is a little slower and the ridge gets a little further west, slowing Matty down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Storm is getting very close to Cocoa beach, FL at hour 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 935mb off coast of fl and strengthening. similar outcome as 06z coming i believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, wncsnow said: Storm is getting very close to Cocoa beach, FL at hour 66 Very Floyd like he did the same.....it will weaken the storm quite a bit though being that close to land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Very close to CHS hr 96... maybe 30-40 miles off shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 surge would be ridiculous verbatim, storm crawls up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Looks like it is going to stay just offshore this run through 108.. was a little East of 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I wonder if it would be better to just hit the coast and go inland. Slowly riding up the entire length of the coast might be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: surge would be ridiculous verbatim, storm crawls up the coast You would think it would be weakening a lot on that track though...looks like a just off shore miss this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: You would think it would be weakening a lot on that track though...looks like a just off shore miss this run very very close though. and a 4+ days out a swing either way will be huge. coast will have to prep as if it makes landfall if these runs hold through tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 makes sense though the faster the storm the further N it gets before being bumped east....so the slower runs get bumped offshore so the question is which scenario makes more sense....slow or fast...any mets wanna chime in...to me the strength of the ridge east of the storm and the trough west of him should squeeze him enough to get him moving pretty good..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 12z UK has it making landfall near jacksonville or southern ga coast moves into se ga and southern sc then it misses the trough and moves back south...much like a few of the ensembles...that would be wild Edit..just to add...part of the reason is the uk weakens it a lot over land and makes it a much shallower system which I'm sure is part of the reason it turns back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Canadian is similar to GFS but a little further West, eye clips bald head island/cape lookout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, Lookout said: 12z UK has it making landfall near jacksonville or southern ga coast moves into se ga and southern sc then it misses the trough and moves back south...much like a few of the ensembles...that would be wild That was a wild run by the UK, looks like it rots away over the Carolina's. Looks like it doesn't allow the ridge to be weakened or pushed east like the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Both GFS and CMC bump east so whats the over/under on Euro that was just offshore last night at 0Z showing NC/SC border landfall this time around......seriously though its nuts what a diffence of 6-8 hrs does on these runs when it comes to the forward speed of Matt.....that the difference between skirting the SE coast and land falling SC/NC border..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: That was a wild run by the UK, looks like it rots away over the Carolina's. Looks like it doesn't allow the ridge to be weakened or pushed east like the GFS shows. Yeah I just edited to add it weakens a lot over land before moving back out to sea. Other models keep it off shore and much deeper so the trough catches it. Its an interesting scenerio and something to watch out for if it actually makes landfall in florida and weakens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, Lookout said: Yeah I just edited to add it weakens a lot over land before moving back out to sea. Other models keep it off shore and much deeper so the trough catches it. Its an interesting scenerio and something to watch out for if it actually makes landfall in florida and weakens. 12z GEFS mean is east of the Op, we will find out in an hour if this is a start of a east trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: 12z GEFS mean is east of the Op, we will find out in an hour if this is a start of a east trend. Looks like the mean rides up the coast from GA/SC all the way up the entire NC coast and never gets inland. That would be wild to ride up the coast that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Not sure this belongs here but since everything Matthew related is gathering the crowds here I'll post in this thread. Rumors starting to show up on social media that the UGA vs South Carolina football game is going to be moved out of Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Charleston Southern's campus is closing at 5pm TODAY. Just announced. Their football game against Albany State was supposed to be Thursday night, but now it might not be played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Looking back at how the models did for todays position from 96 hours ago. Euro wins, UK looks to be second, GFS third and CMC not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 26 minutes ago, packbacker said: 12z GEFS mean is east of the Op, we will find out in an hour if this is a start of a east trend. 12z canadian is essentially unchanged it looks like...maybe a hair further west near the ga/carolina coast but it's so tiny it's just noise. 16 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Looks like the mean rides up the coast from GA/SC all the way up the entire NC coast and never gets inland. That would be wild to ride up the coast that long. Like I said earlier, if he takes this sort of track it's really going to cause a monster amount of chaos. The only saving grace would be if it does weaken a good bit but if it somehow manages to stay a cat 3 most of the way...its going to be really something in terms of evacuations and so forth. It's pretty crazy to think about just how huge a difference the tiniest change means for such a large area..and the overall future of the system itself. Unfortunately that means that there is a high risk that it could be a PR problem for the nws and local officials..since even the tiniest shift east will make a huge difference in terms of conditions on the coast. And no doubt we will hear a lot of people claiming the "weather service/nhc was horrible" "all hype and no bite again", etc. I don't envy those in positions of forecasting this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Lookout said: 12z canadian is essentially unchanged it looks like...maybe a hair further west near the ga/carolina coast but it's so tiny it's just noise. Like I said earlier, if he takes this sort of track it's really going to cause a monster amount of chaos. The only saving grace would be if it does weaken a good bit but if it somehow manages to stay a cat 3 most of the way...its going to be really something in terms of evacuations and so forth. It's pretty Wild to think about how little the tiniest change in track means such a huge difference over such a large area. Unfortunately that means that there is a high risk that it could be a PR problem for the nws and local officials..since even the tiniest shift east will make a huge difference in terms of conditions on the coast. And no doubt we will hear a lot of people claiming the "weather service/nhc was horrible" "all hype and no bite again", etc. I don't envy those in positions of forecasting this one. I think that could be worse for the coast as a whole than if it just took a direct hit somewhere and moved inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 people in the main thread are ridiculous. 12z gfs would have huge impacts. just because it isn't affecting the NE doesn't mean it is time to downplay it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 12z gefs has multiple members that pull a ukmet and loop back off the SE coast Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: 12z gefs has multiple members that pull a ukmet and loop back off the SE coast Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Spread between members increased too, past couple of runs were relatively tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Spread between members increased too, past couple of runs were relatively tight. gfdl shifted west initially and makes landfall in florida but ends up further east it looks like later on. Some mixed signals today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Lookout said: gfdl shifted west initially and makes landfall in florida but ends up further east it looks like later on. Some mixed signals today. Was just looking at that, smacks Boca. So far, more spread today. UK is similar, it just makes landfall further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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