Stump Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 11 minutes ago, Hugo said: I think he was saying 65-mile margin or error 4 days out is a tiny area. But as someone who's watched these models for 20 years, with MB seeming to be the sweet spot at this point in the game, I'd be extremely surprised to actually see it landfall there. Not to mention, with the angle it's coming in, it takes only a jog to make a big difference in landfall spot. Anybody who names the precise landfall spot this far out and gets it right can credit nothing more than luck. That's fine, luck has a lot to do with more stuff than most people know. I though he was giving me a hard time for such a large area. I have no problem being wrong and for my family and other people on the coast I hope I am wrong. I'm uneducated and have no experience other than my own interest and self learning. I'm kind of hybrid using the Hazel path and current models. I'm interested in the next runs though. Not wishcasting either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Stump said: That's fine, luck has a lot to do with more stuff than most people know. I though he was giving me a hard time for such a large area. I have no problem being wrong and for my family and other people on the coast I hope I am wrong. I'm uneducated and have no experience other than my own interest and self learning. I'm kind of hybrid using the Hazel path and current models. I'm interested in the next runs though. Not wishcasting either. That's cool and I'll come back to high five you if you get it right. Even luck earns bragging rights. One thing to keep it mind with this storm is the angle relative to the coast. With a lot of gulf coast storms, you have the hurricane coming in perpendicular to the coast. If the storm wobbles 20 miles east, the landfall spot moves 20 miles east. On the SE coast, storms are often coming in at a sharp angle (some like Hugo are an exception). But Matthew looks like it will be coming in at an exceptionally sharp angle, even by east coast standards. So if it wobbles 20 miles east as it's coming in, it could shift landfall 100 miles north. Pinpointing landfall will probably be extra tricky. That increased margin of error is the reason these east coast storms can have such massive evacuations, too. The evacuations for Floyd were incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 24 minutes ago, Hugo said: That's cool and I'll come back to high five you if you get it right. Even luck earns bragging rights. One thing to keep it mind with this storm is the angle relative to the coast. With a lot of gulf coast storms, you have the hurricane coming in perpendicular to the coast. If the storm wobbles 20 miles east, the landfall spot moves 20 miles east. On the SE coast, storms are often coming in at a sharp angle (some like Hugo are an exception). But Matthew looks like it will be coming in at an exceptionally sharp angle, even by east coast standards. So if it wobbles 20 miles east as it's coming in, it could shift landfall 100 miles north. Pinpointing landfall will probably be extra tricky. That increased margin of error is the reason these east coast storms can have such massive evacuations, too. The evacuations for Floyd were incredible. Not to mention it could drag the western side of the eye along a very large stretch of coast before the right side hits anywhere.....typically the hugging the coast tracks end up being a bit to far west and the storms seem to stay just far enough off to keep the inner core offshore at least till it gets up near Myrtle when the coast really starts running east.....either way Charleston to MHX still look to be best bet to get the eye actually onshore.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 For anybody interested the 12z NAM is a little west at 78 hours that it is at 84 hours on the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 It looks like the NAM would keep the storm off shore after 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Interesting 11am update...NHC shows landfall over ILM at 96 hours close to a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 145 mph at 11am update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 NWS Wilmington Local Briefing is attached. LatestBriefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Interesting 11am update...NHC shows landfall over ILM at 96 hours close to a major. 105 mph strong Cat 2...that track is a decent hit IMBY......totally would wreck Emerald Isle to Nags Head/KDH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 hours ago, Brick Tamland said: I wonder if it could bring a tornado threat further inland once it reaches the coast. Pick a thread Brick. For two days I have been reading everything you post twice. Either post your info and questions in here or in the main tropical thread. No need to double post everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 40 - 50% TS force wind probabilities for the Triangle now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, jburns said: Pick a thread Brick. For two days I have been reading everything you post twice. Either post your info and questions in here or in the main tropical thread. No need to double post everything. Not everyone posts in both forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Not everyone posts in both forums. And a few don't get to post in either one. Take my advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: 40 - 50% TS force wind probabilities for the Triangle now: Maybe this shifts east and misses the coast...but as of now this is progged to be Floyd strength/track but slower moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 8 minutes ago, downeastnc said: 105 mph strong Cat 2...that track is a decent hit IMBY......totally would wreck Emerald Isle to Nags Head/KDH It would wipe out tons of homes around North Myrtle Beach. That area is densely populated with 50+ year old homes that already flood during bad thunderstorms and are only on one level of stilts. And those aren't just vacation homes. A lot of them are primary residences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 14 minutes ago, downeastnc said: 105 mph strong Cat 2...that track is a decent hit IMBY......totally would wreck Emerald Isle to Nags Head/KDH I thought it would stay stronger than that once it gets in open water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 How bad would the storm surge be along the FL east coast with a major hurricane scooting along 100-200 miles offshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: I thought it would stay stronger than that once it gets in open water. SST's aren't as warm, although still warm enough, but shear will be a problem once it gets past 28N give or take. Also, interesting to see how weak it gets the next 24 hours due to land interaction with Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, Hugo said: It would wipe out tons of homes around North Myrtle Beach. That area is densely populated with 50+ year old homes that already flood during bad thunderstorms and are only on one level of stilts. And those aren't just vacation homes. A lot of them are primary residences. I know where your talking about, figure 6-8 foot surge there maybe more if its still a big storm, then I haven't even looked at tides but the new moon was Sat so no new or full moon will help.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stump Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Wanting to throw this out there for the laughs. My mother in law called asking if their trip from New Bern, NC to Savannah, GA would be affected by the storm. I think they may need to start being a little more stern with their words on the Lunchtime news today. Edit: Sorry if this is off topic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, Brick Tamland said: I thought it would be stronger once it gets in open water. There's other environmental considerations to take into account. Once this storm nears NC it will start converting to extratropical; that will dampen the speed in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summey Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: SST's aren't as warm, although still warm enough, but shear will be a problem once it gets past 28N give or take. Also, interesting to see how weak it gets the next 24 hours due to land interaction with Cuba. Yes, the pressure jumped up 17 points with Haiti's interaction. Let's see where it stands after cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: I know where your talking about, figure 6-8 foot surge there maybe more if its still a big storm, then I haven't even looked at tides but the new moon was Sat so no new or full moon will help.... I would expect if tonights 0z runs still show same tracks your going to see I-95 a parking lot come Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, FallsLake said: There's other environmental considerations to take into account. Once this storm nears NC it will start converting to extratropical; that will dampen the speed in itself. I think people need to keep perspective about this. A borderline 2/3 at the NC/SC border is a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 12z GFS...Through 36 the Bermuda ridge is stronger then both 0z/6z runs. Also, a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 6 minutes ago, downeastnc said: I know where your talking about, figure 6-8 foot surge there maybe more if its still a big storm, then I haven't even looked at tides but the new moon was Sat so no new or full moon will help.... Not that it means anything now, but taking the NHC forecast verbatim, the storm comes in at low tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Hugo said: I think people need to keep perspective about this. A borderline 2/3 at the NC/SC border is a big deal. Most definitely. This will be a large storm as well. And as stated above as it becomes extratropical, more precip may shift westward. If this is slow as pack mentioned flooding may be the biggest worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 6 minutes ago, Hugo said: I think people need to keep perspective about this. A borderline 2/3 at the NC/SC border is a big deal. Yeah could be biggest since Fran for Myrtle over to ILM, this thing is 125 one plot before the 105 mph landfall.....so the beaches could easily see gust 120+, so as bad as the surge is that kind of wind in of itself will do a lot of damage. Edit to add I am grateful this appears as a daytime hit, these things suck in the dark.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 591dam ridge now on this run, strongest I recall on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Damn after looking at the runs and data and latest info, now Im very concerned about our place in Kitty Hawk. Not so much wrt flooding as we are on the highest point on the island. More concerned about wind and power outages there which is likely. Not even sure if we will head out there Thursday after all. This is a pretty damn serious situation from SAV to ORF now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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