NWNC2015 Posted September 27, 2016 Author Share Posted September 27, 2016 euro narrowly misses some of the tallest mountains in Cuba, goes for east central Cuba where its more flat, and doing so only down 1mb to 975mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 27, 2016 Author Share Posted September 27, 2016 euro doesn't give no *****, strengthens over flat Cuba, major hurricane about to enter the water south of Florida far west of the Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 9 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: euro narrowly misses some of the tallest mountains in Cuba, goes for east central Cuba where its more flat, and doing so only down 1mb to 975mb It doesn't narrowly miss them, and I don't care if the Euro only shows 1 MB drop, if the storm spends 48 hrs over Cuba its not going to strengthen, the 192 plot has the entire eastern half of the center running over 5-6k ft mountains, even if the core doesn't hit them they will severely disturb the system....then it spends the next 2 days with the center over land that's game over for the storm...the Euro takes it to 969 from 975 over land it doesnt work like that....IF the storm takes the Euro track you will be lucky to see a weak TS exit Cuba,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 27, 2016 Author Share Posted September 27, 2016 The EURO accounts for some of that I wouldn't get too hung up over the individual op, the trend west brings a stronger storm indicated in the red lines... There are by far more weaker solutions (blue) from the highest mountain in Cuba east into Hispaniola... Below is the 12z euro ensemble....all storms headed for south Florida are strong...and there is a noticeable gap in Cuba where hurricanes try to avoid MTNS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Euro went much further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 27, 2016 Author Share Posted September 27, 2016 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 55m55 minutes agoPennsylvania, USA Matthew path near some of the highest OHC on planet. http://Weatherbell.com in middle of euro spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Looks like it could be organizing around 13-13.5N maybe 52W, also might be moving a bit north of west as well..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 12z UK definitely on the weaker further sw Euro train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 It might be a good idea to wait a few days before arguing over specifics. I fact, I strongly recommend it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Euro looks to pretty much hold serve. Looks like the east coast storm shield is setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Sure seems to be organizing a bit further north than modeled a few days ago ( models had it almost running into SA ), of course with no well defined llc its prone to jump around but right now the system looks pretty healthy, but this time yesterday I also thought that it would be at least a TD by now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 gfs has it headed n off the ec. a big one for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 27, 2016 Author Share Posted September 27, 2016 24 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: gfs has it headed n off the ec. a big one for sure. jerks into New York City all the way into central NY....better there than NC that would be a lot of damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 4 hours ago, jburns said: It might be a good idea to wait a few days before arguing over specifics. I fact, I strongly recommend it. Your sage observations and sober comments are always most appreciated! Are you a lawyer :~) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 hour ago, pcbjr said: Your sage observations and sober comments are always most appreciated! Are you a lawyer :~) No. But I did sleep at a Holiday Inn express last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 00Z GFS Shifted West direct hit North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 0z GFS is not pretty for the coast of NC Depicts a landfalling 972mb hurricane on 10/7 early Friday AM just north of Wilmington LONG ways out but certainly looking like something to track first of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 9 minutes ago, Thrasher Fan said: 0z GFS is not pretty for the coast of NC Depicts a landfalling 972mb hurricane on 10/7 early Friday AM just north of Wilmington LONG ways out but certainly looking like something to track first of the week 940MB at landfall actually! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, Thrasher Fan said: 0z GFS is not pretty for the coast of NC Depicts a landfalling 972mb hurricane on 10/7 early Friday AM just north of Wilmington LONG ways out but certainly looking like something to track first of the week Like I said in the main thread that is my obligatory weenie run.....that crushes MBY, still 9 days and a ton of ever changing model runs to go though....looks to be a mature storm with a large wind field would probably be the worst hit in NC wind wise since Fran just based on the shear size of the system....everything east of I-95 would get just pummeled on that track and its probably worst case scenario for Emerald Isle and the Tar/Neuse river systems.....that track would put 10 ft of water up the rivers.....good thing it probably wont happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 0z euro is stronger pre Jamaica.....it will be more east....taking Florida out of the game now finally...maybe OTS one can hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 Bahamas are wrecked, cat5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: 0z euro is stronger pre Jamaica.....it will be more east....taking Florida out of the game now finally...maybe OTS one can hope At 216 hours, east of the 12z run, but 32MB stronger. Doesn't look like it's OTS with it heading NW at 216 hours, but the H5 setup is quite a bit different from the 12z. You would think it would be OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Still heading slowly NW towards FL at 240. 930MB in the Bahamas! Euro still in the Bahamas at 240 hours while GFS is over Washington DC for the same time. Decent agreement between the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 45 minutes ago, metalicwx366 said: Still heading slowly NW towards FL at 240. 930MB in the Bahamas! Check out the difference between the GFS and EURO....like 3 days slower. Miami must be sweating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 After seeing the AN heights over the S/E on the EURO, this is not just a Florida or North Carolina storm...Georgia to South Carolina is possible too on the EURO. The GFS has been more bouncy going from Boston to North Carolina...if it continues to trend toward the EURO...areas further south will soon be in play like Myrtle Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 18 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: After seeing the AN heights over the S/E on the EURO, this is not just a Florida or North Carolina storm...Georgia to South Carolina is possible too on the EURO. The GFS has been more bouncy going from Boston to North Carolina...if it continues to trend toward the EURO...areas further south will soon be in play like Myrtle Beach. Euro is real slow, probably to slow even......hate storms that are moving from south to north like the models have this one it doesn't take much change east to west to go from a SC landfall to a NE landfall, and even small changes in the short term can have huge impacts on the actual conditions any one spot has to deal with ......still its a long ways out and a lot can and will change, but it seems to be getting to be a safe bet that Cuba/Haiti/Bahamas at least will be dealing with a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 - 6z gfs is slightly weaker and slightly more east when it hits NC - the gfs and euro are worlds apart in strength through hour 240....like 60mb difference at times..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 14m14 minutes agoPennsylvania, USA GFS has been shifting west. Going Hazel on Carolinas We are slower and still in w Bahamas day 10 euro spray ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 euro ensemble says a firm "no" from North Carolina to New England many hits for Florida, South Carolina, and out to sea tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 euro ensemble says a firm "no" from North Carolina to New England many hits for Florida, South Carolina, and out to sea tracksJust a little spread lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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