Hvward Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 People are prepping here already, water and charcoal, batteries etc....I will by a bunch of steaks and toss them in the deep freeze in the garage Friday The upside too is the weather after the storm looks wonderful so unlike Floyd, Irene etc if I got to go a week without power at least its COC weather......not 90+ day on end....Nice! Yeah the weather does look great with high pressure building in.. That should aid clean up efforts and allow things to get back to normal a little faster. 80 and no power is much more comfortable than 90+ with no power lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 6 minutes ago, downeastnc said: People are prepping here already, water and charcoal, batteries etc....I will by a bunch of steaks and toss them in the deep freeze in the garage Friday The upside too is the weather after the storm looks wonderful so unlike Floyd, Irene etc if I got to go a week without power at least its COC weather......not 90+ day on end.... 0-2 with coworkers here. "I thought that wasn't coming anywhere near here!" was what I heard this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I tell everyone to plan to have no power for a week, that's usually worst case for most people the grid here is stout and underground in a lot of places but we get a Cat 3 that takes the GFS or CMC track and almost all of NC east of I-95 is looking at sustained 40-50 with gust 80-110, and that's inland the beaches are ....and that will do a number on the grid for sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 During Floyd, we lost power for four days or so. And that was with an underground power grid in our neighborhood. I'm personally kind of scared how this area is going to handle a possible evacuation. The Charleston area alone has gained 200,000 people since Floyd. The Myrtle Beach area has added another 170,000, Hilton Head/Beaufort area 70,000, and a large portion of these people have never experienced a "real" hurricane. It's gonna be very interesting these next couple of days as we prepare for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 9 minutes ago, sctvman said: During Floyd, we lost power for four days or so. And that was with an underground power grid in our neighborhood. I'm personally kind of scared how this area is going to handle a possible evacuation. The Charleston area alone has gained 200,000 people since Floyd. The Myrtle Beach area has added another 170,000, Hilton Head/Beaufort area 70,000, and a large portion of these people have never experienced a "real" hurricane. It's gonna be very interesting these next couple of days as we prepare for this storm. We have a lot of people working in our plant that have come from Wisc and Ohio over the last year or so and they are freaking the hell out this morning lol....they have no idea what to expect....they seem to think it is like a thunderstorm and will be over in a couple of hrs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: We have a lot of people working in our plant that have come from Wisc and Ohio over the last year or so and they are freaking the hell out this morning lol....they have no idea what to expect....they seem to think it is like a thunderstorm and will be over in a couple of hrs.... The effect to normalcy would be more comparable to a massive blizzard than a thunderstorm. Maybe they can identify with that better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, packfan98 said: The effect to normalcy would be more comparable to a massive blizzard than a thunderstorm. Maybe they can identify with that better? Tried to tell them biggest things to fear are trees falling on stuff like houses and vehicles and no power for extended period....and then depending on location flooding which should be minimal here, models show rain totals less than 6-8" and faster moving storm should spare a lot of that misery. IF and its a big IF this thing is a legit Cat 3 and we get winds up over 100 mph in gust then roof damage and maybe structural damage to carports and porches and even some siding as stuff are at risk.....I all but guarantee my neighbors fence comes down etc..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Trying to catch up from overnight. Looks like the westward trend has continued with the models. Euro seems the furthest east, but looks like most of the runs show landfall somewhere between Charleston and the SC/NC border. Not looking good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I just wonder if this could lead to one of the biggest mass evacuations ever since it parallels so close to the coast like that. With such a track you have a HUGE area that is under a lot of risk of any the slightest west movement/wobble...essentially every point along the florida and carolina coast is under equal amounts of danger. At the very least, it certainly will be one of the most disruptive storms ever. Radar. Very impressive convection in the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Look at the members going triaght up the FL pennisula. Courtesy Michael Ventrice twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I wonder if it could bring a tornado threat further inland once it reaches the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 locked and loaded no concern except for neighnbors especially the elderly, experiencing some cane force winds looking more likely see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 5 minutes ago, WXinCanton said: Look at the members going triaght up the FL pennisula. Courtesy Michael Ventrice twitter Anybody see the 6z NAVGEM? I know it's the NAVGEM, but it shows a landfall near West Palm Beach with a track right up the heart of the state -- through Lakeland and then up I-75. Easy to discard until you see all of those ensemble members showing almost the exact same thing. Heck, they ALMOST get the thing back into the Gulf. Hmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I wonder if it could bring a tornado threat further inland once it reaches the coast. If it moves inland, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stump Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 So I don't post much mostly learning... but this thing looks to hit N Myrtle square in the teeth and ride 17 up through NC. Could there be a potential worse scenario for Eastern NC/Carteret County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Yikes, a large majority have landfall on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, Stump said: So I don't post much mostly learning... but this thing looks to hit N Myrtle square in the teeth and ride 17 up through NC. Could there be a potential worse scenario for Eastern NC/Carteret County? Or it could miss you almost entirely. Going to have to wait till late tonight early tomorrow before you can really start to pin down possible landfall areas. Still four days out the cone is still relatively big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 9 minutes ago, beanskip said: Anybody see the 6z NAVGEM? I know it's the NAVGEM, but it shows a landfall near West Palm Beach with a track right up the heart of the state -- through Lakeland and then up I-75. Easy to discard until you see all of those ensemble members showing almost the exact same thing. Heck, they ALMOST get the thing back into the Gulf. Hmmmmm. what's funny about that run is it looks close to being left behind by the trough and stall off the coast or turn back south and west for another run. highly unlikely but would be pretty cool to see. I had hope for maybe a little further west trend for those of us in ne ga/western carolinas but last few runs of the operational models don't look promising even though there are a few ensembles members showing it. Western carolinas though still look like they will get some rain from it..probably won't be much here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stump Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 7 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Or it could miss you almost entirely. Going to have to wait till late tonight early tomorrow before you can really start to pin down possible landfall areas. Still four days out the cone is still relatively big. I'd feel pretty confident to say at the current standings somewhere between Myrtle and Wilmington but that's just my opinion. Large swath I know, but we are still 72hrs out. Edit for words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 15 minutes ago, Stump said: I'd feel pretty confident to say at the current standings somewhere between Myrtle and Wilmington but that's just my opinion. Large swath I know, but we are still 72hrs out. Edit for words. Thats like 65 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I am sure NC Piedmont Weather has this as their cover photo: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 24 minutes ago, Stump said: I'd feel pretty confident to say at the current standings somewhere between Myrtle and Wilmington but that's just my opinion. Large swath I know, but we are still 72hrs out. Edit for words. Or it could LF in Florida first or curve out and miss or brush the coast. Lots of options still on the table including a hit like you described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stump Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 17 minutes ago, WXinCanton said: Thats like 65 miles. I apologize for giving such a large area as my opinion as an uneducated member of the public 72+hrs out of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Looking like the core held together pretty well http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2016_14L/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_07.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The track keeps on shifting ever closer to Miami. Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, Stump said: I apologize for giving such a large area as my opinion as an uneducated member of the public 72+hrs out of the event. No worries, that insanely small IMO this far out. But it could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, Stump said: I apologize for giving such a large area as my opinion as an uneducated member of the public 72+hrs out of the event. I think he was saying 65-mile margin or error 4 days out is a tiny area. But as someone who's watched these models for 20 years, with MB seeming to be the sweet spot at this point in the game, I'd be extremely surprised to actually see it landfall there. Not to mention, with the angle it's coming in, it takes only a jog to make a big difference in landfall spot. Anybody who names the precise landfall spot this far out and gets it right can credit nothing more than luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 6 minutes ago, Stump said: I apologize for giving such a large area as my opinion as an uneducated member of the public 72+hrs out of the event. 65 miles is a really small swath at this range, and too small IMO. This thing could make landfall in Miami or go out to sea and not even make landfall in the OBX at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Am I really watching the 12z NAM come in. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Odds are Myrtle to ILM will be landfall if for no other reason than its the favored track for this area....for whatever reason that is what the canes like to do.....usually in order to hit south of Myrtle the storms have to have a large west component to the track, its weird how that works out but it is what it is and its hard to bet against it....That doesn't mean this will hit there, but just about every storm that hit NC/SC border was forecast or modeled to hit the central SC coast in this range.....and it always ends up east of that 100 miles and hits the NC/SC border. Sucky part is that even when its 12 hrs out its not guaranteed to even hit regardless of forecast track or modeling.....it could turn and skim the coast the whole way out or it could barrel in and get 75-100 mils further inland before turning NE etc....and no amount of model runs or NHC forecast is gonna change that between now and Friday night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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