WidreMann Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Still too many days out. 00z tomorrow night will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 UK looks identical to GFS at 96, hugging SAV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: Still too many days out. 00z tomorrow night will be interesting. yea i want to see if this holds serve once it clears cuba. no telling what effects the land interaction will have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Mike, hope you picked up your canned spaghetti tonight. Feel like the media will have a hay-day with this by morning for your area. Even here in Columbia, they have been pushing a slight narrative. UKMET is trying to agree already. Edit: Not that 00z GFS will happen. But you know how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Looks like a partial phase is what it brought it in closer towards the end. I want to see the Euro show that for two or more runs in a row before I accept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 GFS is forecasting a cutoff ULL to slide down into the NW carib. Actually that feature was on some of the models a couple days ago but I believe moving SW. If it in fact does come to fruition it will provide enough influence to bend the storm back to the west even more. Have to watch this feature see how/if it develops, especially if it cuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Well, Canadian, GFS, UKMET seem to be further West. 3/3. Well, maybe UKMET doesn't count since it's been leading the charge with a FL, coastal scraper for a while now... Waiting for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 hours ago, Shawn said: Mike, hope you picked up your canned spaghetti tonight. Feel like the media will have a hay-day with this by morning for your area. Even here in Columbia, they have been pushing a slight narrative. UKMET is trying to agree already. Edit: Not that 00z GFS will happen. But you know how it goes. Yeah I will be canned goods hunting and what not tomorrow for sure now. The very thing I've feared with seasonal trends had shown up again...but this tropical cyclone means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 hour ago, Jackstraw said: GFS is forecasting a cutoff ULL to slide down into the NW carib. Actually that feature was on some of the models a couple days ago but I believe moving SW. If it in fact does come to fruition it will provide enough influence to bend the storm back to the west even more. Have to watch this feature see how/if it develops, especially if it cuts off. It's actually the trough that ends up splitting with a piece cutting off in the Eastern GOM. which pulls Matthew right back NW towards the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 For those wondering, 0z Euro came west even more. Here is the track through 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 should see watches in the am for at least S Fl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 hours ago, Shawn said: Not looking good for CHS. I'll just put it that way. :/ Yesterday's trip to Sam's looks like it was a good idea. Today will be interesting for sure, I'm supposed to close on the sale of a historic house in downtown CHS today. I'll be very glad once that paperwork is signed! Surge is something I'm going to be interested in, our place is close to downtown and about a foot above base flood elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Here's a good write up from RAH. Notice the mention of higher precip amounts NW of the storm as it loses tropical characteristics: Latest model guidance continues to shift the track of Hurricane Matthew further to west, and closer to Southeast U.S. coast. The eventual track of Matthew will depend upon two elements: 1.) the strength of the upper level ridge to its north; and 2.) the speed and strength/amplitude of an upper level trough approaching from the nw. While timing differences remain with the ECMWF still slower than the GFS, the differences have narrowed compared to the last 24 hours. Based on this current track, may see areas of rain associated with Matthew begin to move into southern sections of central NC Friday afternoon into Friday night. The approach of the upper level trough will play a role in Matthew transitioning from a purely tropical system to an extratropical system. During this transition, we normally see a band of heavier precip develop to the nw of the center. Based on the model trend, this band of heavier precip may develop over sections of central NC, possibly as far west as the nw Piedmont. Will increase PoPs from previous forecast Friday night-Saturday night, but refrain from increasing PoPs to likely over the southeast half of central NC since we have plenty of time to increase PoPs based on future model runs. In addition, have increased nly winds late Friday through Saturday night with the apparent closer approach of Matthew, with the main adjustment over sections of the Sandhills and the Coastal Plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 6z GFS and 0z Euro both show landfall around Southport, NC right at the mouth of the Cape Fear. GFS has a 985mb low whereas the Euro has Matthew around 950mb at landfall. Euro brings landfall around 9-12 hrs after GFS with a weaker trough. Euro also develops a TD to the SE of Matthew. That will likely help push Matthew ashore along with ridging over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Here's the best way to get caught up on all of the overnight modeling: Matthew East's Morning Video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I'm getting that "oh, fuuuuuu..." feeling right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Surprised to see how far west the 0z EPS mean was with so many members making landfall in the Carolinas. Still a cluster that misses though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 26 minutes ago, gtg947h said: I'm getting that "oh, fuuuuuu..." feeling right now... Same here; this storm is going to be and is devastating for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 hour ago, Hvward said: 6z GFS and 0z Euro both show landfall around Southport, NC right at the mouth of the Cape Fear. GFS has a 985mb low whereas the Euro has Matthew around 950mb at landfall. Euro brings landfall around 9-12 hrs after GFS with a weaker trough. Euro also develops a TD to the SE of Matthew. That will likely help push Matthew ashore along with ridging over New England. 06Z GFS and the 00Z CMC both put MBY within 30 miles or so of the center.....startingto get real now....I got a lot to do, and I work 12 hrs a day through Thurs so it will be Friday before I can get started putting everything away. The upside is I got no trees in my yard, the down side is no trees means nothing to slow the winds.....but I do got a new Kestrel I need to try out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 6z HWRF keeps shifting west with each run. Tracks it right up through RDU. Seems unlikely though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: 6z HWRF keeps shifting west with each run. Tracks it right up through RDU. Seems unlikely though. WOW. That that is a a lot of rain that gets inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Offshore as it passes by, but still another ugly scenario for Charleston. Today will be fun as we get close to 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: 6z HWRF keeps shifting west with each run. Tracks it right up through RDU. Seems unlikely though. While not impossible that track just for whatever reason never seems to happen, almost every storm that has hit in my life time has been forecast to hit between Charleston and Myrtle an they always end up hitting SC/NC border....it would be a tough hit for you guys, should be good enough for some 60-70mph gust probably in the Triangle if it panned out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 06Z GFS and the 00Z CMC both put MBY within 30 miles or so of the center.....startingto get real now....I got a lot to do, and I work 12 hrs a day through Thurs so it will be Friday before I can get started putting everything away. The upside is I got no trees in my yard, the down side is no trees means nothing to slow the winds.....but I do got a new Kestrel I need to try out Not a bad silver lining from a data standpoint! I am curious as to whether we see a more eastern adjustment today on the models or if they stay the course. I am just glad that people seem to be preparing for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 hour ago, Hvward said: 6z GFS and 0z Euro both show landfall around Southport, NC right at the mouth of the Cape Fear. GFS has a 985mb low whereas the Euro has Matthew around 950mb at landfall. Euro brings landfall around 9-12 hrs after GFS with a weaker trough. Euro also develops a TD to the SE of Matthew. That will likely help push Matthew ashore along with ridging over New England. GFS is actually ~935 mb at landfall on the full res run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, Hvward said: Not a bad silver lining from a data standpoint! I am curious as to whether we see a more eastern adjustment today on the models or if they stay the course. I am just glad that people seem to be preparing for the storm. People are prepping here already, water and charcoal, batteries etc....I will by a bunch of steaks and toss them in the deep freeze in the garage Friday The upside too is the weather after the storm looks wonderful so unlike Floyd, Irene etc if I got to go a week without power at least its COC weather......not 90+ day on end.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: GFS is actually ~935 mb at landfall on the full res run. That would be lowest ever for a NC landfall, I don't buy it I will be surprised if it is sub 950MB even..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 GFS is actually ~935 mb at landfall on the full res run.Oh wow! Was just looking at my phone and that was the number at the center. Thanks for clarifying DopplerWx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: That would be lowest ever for a NC landfall, I don't buy it I will be surprised if it is sub 950MB even..... agree, esp if it hugs fl. but if it takes a mor euro-ish track and can stay a but offshore it will have plenty of juice and time to strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 8am Update boosts 98L to 80% for development straight to Tropical Storm Nicole later today. Interesting track implications for Matthew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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