NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 OBX and much of north-eastern NC is spared big time compared to some of the recent runs. this is good news for NC. maybe a trend for a sharper NE turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 18z GFS would be good for NC but would be really bad for coastal FL/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Still something to watch out for along the SE coastline of the carolinas, GA and FLA. Eye gets to just south of HAT and out to the fishes it goes on the 18z gfs. It will be interesting over the next few days to see what happens. Fishel had a nice explanation of what could happen, especially with the ridge and it is rotates enough to let Matthew continue up the coast or out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: 18z GFS would be good for NC but would be really bad for coastal FL/SC. Still pushes a lot of water into the OBX and Pamlico sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Good grief, Matty is looking spry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 I'm up to half an inch of rain on the 18z gfs while the obx is now down to like 2" on average. Sharper turn may be better for inland areas that need rain and better for eastern NC to miss out. Hopefully more of the same trends in the rainfall department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 17 minutes ago, Avdave said: Still pushes a lot of water into the OBX and Pamlico sound Are you guessing or are you looking at the SLOSH model for this? If the latter, care to share for others how much water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: Are you guessing or are you looking at the SLOSH model for this? If the latter, care to share for others how much water? Im saying it by looking at the wind around the storm. When it is south and those winds start cranking up it will be pushing water in, not out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I would say the UKMET has been the best model on this hurricane,always been the further west solution and now others slowly going there. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 One thing I don't really get is that whenever you have a system moving north out of the Gulf, it almost always goes straight north or NNE until it gets to about OH, and then it turns NE. It avoids the SE, usually. But when you have a storm moving north along the SE coast, it seems to usually find the ENE turn much more rapidly, avoiding making landfall and tracking inland through the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Noticed numerous combines on the way home from work, fully lit out in the fields and have to think they will be running all night. Even had to pull over to let one pass the opposite way on the road, pretty impressive to see as you usually do not see them at night like that around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 18z GFS does show a little more precip for the central and western parts of the SE (compared to 12z). Anybody have an idea when this thing starts losing its tropical characteristics. Once that happens more precip would start developing westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 37 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Noticed numerous combines on the way home from work, fully lit out in the fields and have to think they will be running all night. Even had to pull over to let one pass the opposite way on the road, pretty impressive to see as you usually do not see them at night like that around here. Yep taking the soybeans early.....most fields here are not close to ready....same with the cotton.....but if they dont get them now and it does hit they lose it all..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 18z GFS does show a little more precip for the central and western parts of the SE (compared to 12z). Anybody have an idea when this thing starts losing its tropical characteristics. Once that happens more precip would start developing westward.Upsloping and interaction between the front coming across the US/Matthew will pop showers and storms over WNC. Euro shows this nicely. Warm air will be funneled in and lifted by the mountains pushing that warm up into the cold front and initiating precip. We need the rain here so this is a welcomed sight to see, hopefully it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 WRAL has it coming in as a cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: RAL has it coming in as a cat 2. they don't think its going to strengthen in the Bahamas lol what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 yea not sure it will weaken as it traverses over the bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Who is this Guy? National Weather Force 1 hr · Hurricane Watch: Hurricane Matthew Will Impact The Carolinas This Friday into Saturday Hurricane Matthew will impact the South and North Carolina regions before hitting Virginia Friday and Saturday … as a strong hurricane. Read on for the details and if you are in the SC/NC areas you need to get ready now as NWF has issued a HURRICANE WATCH … Read more - http://www.nationalweatherforce.com/…/hurricane-watch-hurr…/ ...See More Hurricane Watch: Hurricane Matthew Will Impact The Carolinas This Friday into Saturday – National Weather Force NATIONALWEATHERFORCE.COM 66 Like Like Love Haha Wow Sad Angry CommentShare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 13 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Who is this Guy? National Weather Force 1 hr · Hurricane Watch: Hurricane Matthew Will Impact The Carolinas This Friday into Saturday Hurricane Matthew will impact the South and North Carolina regions before hitting Virginia Friday and Saturday … as a strong hurricane. Read on for the details and if you are in the SC/NC areas you need to get ready now as NWF has issued a HURRICANE WATCH … Read more - http://www.nationalweatherforce.com/…/hurricane-watch-hurr…/ ...See More Hurricane Watch: Hurricane Matthew Will Impact The Carolinas This Friday into Saturday – National Weather Force NATIONALWEATHERFORCE.COM 66 Like Like Love Haha Wow Sad Angry CommentShare LOL I needed this laugh today. Love the multi-colored cone and a line going towards RAH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 19 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: they don't think its going to strengthen in the Bahamas lol what? 16 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: yea not sure it will weaken as it traverses over the bahamas. That's what I was thinking, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 8 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: LOL I needed this laugh today. Love the multi-colored cone and a line going towards RAH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 12 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: LOL I needed this laugh today. Love the multi-colored cone and a line going towards RAH. Yeah, That's kinda what I thought too!!! lol Just wondering who this dude is?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Any truth to the state of emergency being declared for Florida and North Carolina. Seen a few posts on the old FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoachLB said: Any truth to the state of emergency being declared for Florida and North Carolina. Seen a few posts on the old FB. Yes to both, but in NC it is for Agricultural reasons to get the fields harvested and prepare for the storm. It isnt a full fledged out state of emergency as in madatory evacuations and military being dispersed into the state for help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 45 minutes ago, Hvward said: Upsloping and interaction between the front coming across the US/Matthew will pop showers and storms over WNC. Euro shows this nicely. Warm air will be funneled in and lifted by the mountains pushing that warm up into the cold front and initiating precip. We need the rain here so this is a welcomed sight to see, hopefully it comes to fruition. Yeah we all need the rain in both of western NC and SC. Hopefully this system weakens before coming into the Carolinas, if indeed it does come this far west. The coastal areas really do not need a major tropical system. By the way, congrats on the red tag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 8 hours ago, sctvman said: SC hasn't had a mandatory hurricane evacuation since 1999. If these models continue to hold... Horry County native here, I remember that one. I stayed behind because my father was involved in school administration and was in charge of a mandatory evacuation shelter. Good luck getting in Horry like someone previously mentioned, because that was an absolute evacuation gridlock. They will now send any road out of Horry County in both directions a lot earlier. There are limited roads over the rivers into the county, especially the Waccamaw that splits the county. This means that you better get in early if you want to be there for that one. A wise word to those chasers, be careful going to Myrtle Beach because the area is a big island that has limited connections to the mainland because of the terrain. Floyd was not a direct hit at all (hitting our NC brethren), yet it still left transportation in the county impassable. Rivers and swamps blocked roads all over the county. If this hurricane hit MB proper at anywhere above a Category 3, I would not want to be in the county. We haven't seen a direct hit since Hurricane Hazel and there has been exponentially more development that has filled the wetlands that could lessen the blow of this kind of storm. Just my two cents for those wanting to chase the storm. Wouldn't want any of y'all to get trapped in a bad spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 So where is NHC gonna put that Sat 8pm plot at the 11pm update tonight? I am guessing they move up a plot just off Charleston then have another just offshore Emerald Isle....I dont think they will put the plot on land in NC at this point, though if the 00Z's run landfalls they will go ahead and do it at 5am. Its a big step cause once they put a plot on land calling for landfall the hype will really get started even more so than what we see now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said: WRAL has it coming in as a cat 2. That's the NHC's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just posted an updated video on my fb page for anyone interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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