buckeyefan1 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 19 minutes ago, Stormsfury said: I was concerned about this. Seasonal trends have been all summer long for a stronger ridge and many TC's for 2016 have crossed around the SE coast, either side. Damn. Placement is the key 13 minutes ago, jburns said: McCrory has declared a state of emergency in 66 NC counties. Nothing like jumping the gun. Remind me to tell you my Men in Black story 1 minute ago, pcbjr said: I hate being back in the cone - however marginally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 17 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Placement is the key Remind me to tell you my Men in Black story You are too funny (and good)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 37 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Placement is the key Remind me to tell you my Men in Black story Definitely will remind you about the MIB story to recap it for me lol Otherwise, I'll be straight up honest. This storm has me nervous. All I can say right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Grocery stores are pretty busy, appears the run on water and non perishables has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Again through 72 18z GFS is more west. Lookout FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 hours ago, Jackstraw said: If it should happen to come in anywhere along the SC coast south of Myrtle you won't get anywhere near the coast, especially a 4 or 5. I was a system admin for the city of Charleston and the evac procedures will stop anyone from coming into Charleston county. They take it very seriously after the Hugo fiasco. Plus 17 south of Georgetown all the way to Savannah is nearly non accessible during mandatory evacs for cat 3 or higher storm. There are very few roads to get people off of the coast in that stretch and they will take priority. Either get on beach early and grab your balls or stay away if it comes in down there. It will be a mess. I'm sure they will put down the gates on the exits and reverse the lanes on 26 if the worst does happen. Trust me I'm already plotting on how to get in Friday night. It won't be easy, maybe impossible for where I want to head. Charleston was the starting point in my head but I've seen the systems in place for hurricane evacs. Tricky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Grocery stores are pretty busy, appears the run on water and non perishables has begun. My local grocery stores already barren of bottled water. I'm gonna have to make a trip and gather a ton of cans of Chef-Boy-ar-Dee and stuff. not looking forward to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 20 minutes ago, pcbjr said: You are too funny (and good)! 1 minute ago, Stormsfury said: Definitely will remind you about the MIB story to recap it for me lol Otherwise, I'll be straight up honest. This storm has me nervous. All I can say right now. I know it does ......It's going to be a long week of watching, waiting and model drama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 this run is headed for se fl unless it makes the turn soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Again through 72 18z GFS is more west. Lookout FL. It will probably drift west for a day or so maybe get to Charleston with the landfall then slowly come back right till it locks in on the NC/SC border around Thursday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Stormsfury said: My local grocery stores already barren of bottled water. I'm gonna have to make a trip and gather a ton of cans of Chef-Boy-ar-Dee and stuff. not looking forward to this. Go to Sam's Club if you have a card. I needed to go anyway after work and it was pretty much a ghost town. Plenty of everything - kind of surprising, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Ser Pounce said: Go to Sam's Club if you have a card. I needed to go anyway after work and it was pretty much a ghost town. Plenty of everything - kind of surprising, to be honest. It won't be after the media gets a hold of the 5 pm NHC advisory at 6 pm. I don't have a Sam's Club card...oops. I'll get what I can get later tonight or tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 keep in mind the gfs has matthew offshore miami in just 72hrs. not a whole lot of time for preps and with these wild model swings it will get frantic quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: I know it does ......It's going to be a long week of watching, waiting and model drama Yep..been drawn back in..but for good reason. this isn't a walk in the park run of the mill storm. A lot of nerve cells tested this week for sure. I've been concerned about the ridge, which was confirmed stronger than modeled per Bermuda observations, and on top of that, 98E is getting close to depression status well NE and N of the Leewards. so many players on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 goodness gfs coming up the ec of fl with sc in its sights thru 90. huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, Stormsfury said: It won't be after the media gets a hold of the 5 pm NHC advisory at 6 pm. I don't have a Sam's Club card...oops. I'll get what I can get later tonight or tomorrow morning. Betcha can't guess what Channel 5 and 2 are leading with... 2 even has the obligatory anchor standing out at Folly. edit: Channel 5 calls it a 5 out of 10 on Threatcon. First time I've seen that measure of doom before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 18z GFS says you need warnings for the entire east coast of Florida...rides it...all of it. luckily west side of the storm is weaker but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I wont pull the trigger on prep till Thur....if the track is going to be right along or just of the coast we shouldnt get it to bad here, maybe 50-60 mph gust at most....if the center does like the HWRF or the GFDL with a flatter NE turn I would get wrecked....watch this storm tease all week then when it gets up here it will stick 100 miles offshore the whole way....I hate these setups. GFS is slower thru 96 though might end up getting out to the east is it hangs out to long....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, Stormsfury said: Yep..been drawn back in..but for good reason. this isn't a walk in the park run of the mill storm. A lot of nerve cells tested this week for sure. I've been concerned about the ridge, which was confirmed stronger than modeled per Bermuda observations, and on top of that, 98E is getting close to depression status well NE and N of the Leewards. so many players on the field. Yes there are more than enough players to cause the chaos. It can't be easy if it is happening to the southeast The devil is in the finer details and watches and warnings should be happening soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Slower it is...less chance of gaining enough latitude to hit NC. That's what I see on 18z GFS...so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: Betcha can't guess what Channel 5 and 2 are leading with... 2 even has the obligatory anchor standing out at Folly. of course. I just heard Dorchester County schools already have closed Friday classes. talk about not waiting around. it's not just how strong Matthew, but how long it takes to clear the region, even being offshore. I mean a full 24-36 hours of significant impacts possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 18z gfs verbatim would have horrible storm surge for coastal sc esp charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Slower it is...less chance of gaining enough latitude to hit NC. That's what I see on 18z GFS...so far. Am I wrong in thinking the slower it is(forward progress) gives a lesser chance of coming a ways inland? I don't know if that's based on the law of averages or just an old wives tale (I know it's a sign I'm old) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 crushing the sc coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Slower it is...less chance of gaining enough latitude to hit NC. That's what I see on 18z GFS...so far. Yep slower means miss....thats why its a bit early for me to get to gung ho about this...really close to SC maybe 75 miles off Charleston at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: Yep slower means miss....thats why its a bit early for me to get to gung ho about this...really close to SC maybe 75 miles off Charleston at 114 Yep, very euro like, scrapes the coast and heads east once it nears ILM day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Gonna be a miss, after brushing the SC coast around Charleston it goes NE just off the NC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 we are very fortunate this will go NE whether it hits or not and not go far inland. no global model has showed a hugo like path and that is great news!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 FL/SC get raked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 So if it goes Euro slow its gonna fish it has to go fast enough to get inland before the trough bumps it NE....sad thing is the models will suck with this aspect all the way up to it hitting or missing.....either way this run will probably give hurricane conditions from Charleston to the northern OBX, inland from there not so much wind just rain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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