NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 Fujiwara effect on the EURO....tropical depression to its east moving due south LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Euro refuses to make landfall, just batters the coast of the Carolina's, just heavy rain with TS winds. By day 6 it's heading east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: If it should happen to come in anywhere along the SC coast south of Myrtle you won't get anywhere near the coast, especially a 4 or 5. I was a system admin for the city of Charleston and the evac procedures will stop anyone from coming into Charleston county. They take it very seriously after the Hugo fiasco. Plus 17 south of Georgetown all the way to Savannah is nearly non accessible during mandatory evacs for cat 3 or higher storm. There are very few roads to get people off of the coast in that stretch and they will take priority. Either get on beach early and grab your balls or stay away if it comes in down there. It will be a mess. All the evacuation zones will probably be used. Almost the entire county would be evacuated if this materializes like it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 FWIW the 12z Euro run was closer to making landfall and gained more latitude then the 0z run. See what tomorrows runs show, still 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Even if the Euro didn't make landfall with Matthew, if it still went further west and closer to the coast, I think that's important. It would still be showing the westward trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 I'm pretty sure if the 12z EURO didn't show the "dance" between Matthew and invest 98L it would have smacked South Carolina. 18z BAMM models are in (which are good models) now hit the east coast of Florida before going out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Euro says no landfall but moves slowly N then NEward Pushes a lot of water towards the OBX though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 If it should happen to come in anywhere along the SC coast south of Myrtle you won't get anywhere near the coast, especially a 4 or 5. I was a system admin for the city of Charleston and the evac procedures will stop anyone from coming into Charleston county. They take it very seriously after the Hugo fiasco. Plus 17 south of Georgetown all the way to Savannah is nearly non accessible during mandatory evacs for cat 3 or higher storm. There are very few roads to get people off of the coast in that stretch and they will take priority. Either get on beach early and grab your balls or stay away if it comes in down there. It will be a mess.Thanks for the info! I have family in Charleston, but for some reason to me that area never was really appealing for a chase. I am going to try and stay in NC because I have a chance to travel along with the NC swift water rescue crew, so that would be interesting. Hopefully it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just updated...not surprisingly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: FWIW the 12z Euro run was closer to making landfall and gained more latitude then the 0z run. See what tomorrows runs show, still 5 days out. The reason the Euro isn't hitting is its slower.....if it was faster it would get north and hit NC before the trough nudges I east....still at 5pm the NHC is gonna pretty much have to put a dot somewhere on the NC coast or just south of it...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, Hvward said: Thanks for the info! I have family in Charleston, but for some reason to me that area never was really appealing for a chase. I am going to try and stay in NC because I have a chance to travel along with the NC swift water rescue crew, so that would be interesting. Hopefully it pans out. Getting out of ILM and or Jacksonville shouldn't be a huge issue.....I would say try hotels in Greenville but if this thing looks to hit still on Wed they will fill up since the folks that live on the beaches come stay here so they can get home quicker.....same will go for ILM and Jville the hotels will fill up quick once they think it is coming in especially if its a Cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Im still planning on going to the house in Kitty Hawk Thurs PM. I have to winterize it anyway might as well enjoy the storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The reason the Euro isn't hitting is its slower.....if it was faster it would get north and hit NC before the trough nudges I east....still at 5pm the NHC is gonna pretty much have to put a dot somewhere on the NC coast or just south of it...... Problem is the ridge it builds NW of it's path and the CMC/GFS have a trough there. It did get more troughy then it's 0z run, and it gained more latitude so theres that. UK must be similar to the GFS/CMC. Below is all 3 globals. If that trough would dig deeper it would get ugly, but nothing is showing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 I know we are heavily focused in the Carolina's but threat is increasing for Florida too just so our few friends there know. If anything, uncertainty has grown for Florida instead of being in the all clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Getting out of ILM and or Jacksonville shouldn't be a huge issue.....I would say try hotels in Greenville but if this thing looks to hit still on Wed they will fill up since the folks that live on the beaches come stay here so they can get home quicker.....same will go for ILM and Jville the hotels will fill up quick once they think it is coming in especially if its a Cat 3.Good advice thanks Downeast. Not sure if I will get a hotel or not this time. One of my teachers during Met school used to say that he liked chasing from his car in a parking deck with a good bit of food and water on hand, but a hotel seems nice because it would have a bathroom lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 31m31 minutes ago Pennsylvania, USA remember very hard to bring a slow moving hurricane ashore if moving slow tend to stay offshore crankyweatherguy @crankywxguy 27m27 minutes ago These pieces play into Matthew's eventual east US/west ATL steering and/or capture. It's a long distance away to "trust" modeled solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 12z HWRF shows landfall around Emerald Isle with max winds of 110kts and pressure around 970mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 NHC increased 98L to 50% now. trying very hard to develop, and it would be a monkey in the wrench for Matthew's track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 You can clearly see the westward trend with the models here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 12z JMA joins the Florida camp with BAMM SUIT and far west crazy NAVGEM landfalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 12z UKMet trended west and tracks just off the FL coast and hits Hilton Head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 The jma would put the storm in my pool i guess it would time for the chainsaw LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 EPS members are out. At day 4 there is 3 clusters....1) east of op, 2) on top of op and 3) landfall in east FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Ryan just posted showed the 3 clusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I was concerned about this. Seasonal trends have been all summer long for a stronger ridge and many TC's for 2016 have crossed around the SE coast, either side. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 McCrory has declared a state of emergency in 66 NC counties. Nothing like jumping the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, jburns said: McCrory has declared a state of emergency in 66 NC counties. Nothing like jumping the gun. Here's the reason: "Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler asked for the declaration, McCrory said, so farmers could speed up their harvesting in the coming days. The declaration, which covers 66 counties in the central and eastern parts of the state, will lift restrictions on the loads agricultural trucks can carry and the hours they can operate. "Already, many crops are destroyed due to previous storms and previous floods that we've had during the past 10 days," the governor said. "We don't want to have other crops ruined for the year." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, SimeonNC said: HOLY **** THE NEW ADVISORY'S TRACK ON TWC NOW HAS PARTS OF WESTERN NC INSIDE THE CONE. Not that surprising considering the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I hate being back in the cone - however marginally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 State of Emergency for Florida as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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