packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, Shawn said: Looks like it will try to make landfall around MYR or the SC/NC border. yea looks like a hazel track. plenty of juice to strengthen up thru landfall too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Hr 114 is nasty nasty, even due NE from there is a bad hit for NC......if it goes NNE or even N NC gonna get smacked hard.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 lanfall near myrtle it looks like. anyone got a full-res pressure @ landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 This is more like Floyd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 933mb at landfall. lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: lanfall near myrtle it looks like. anyone got a full-res pressure @ landfall? its on tropical tidbits. it would be a record storm in terms of strength fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Dang this GFS run bad news, finally a for real smackdown run, if the Euro comes west any then we might be in trouble.... 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: 933mb at landfall. lord. That would be lowest even for NC easy.....I suspect that it off by 20 MB though, I will be impressed if Matt hits here with anything lower than 955ish .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: 933mb at landfall. lord. LOL...yep, this would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Would be just a bit breezy. Hopefully, a well-timed ERC would save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 well there goes my friends beach house at Oak Island I can stay at for free. pretty sure there would be mandatory evacuations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 This looks like the furthest west run yet. We were talking about maybe the OBX before, and now Myrtle Beach and the SC/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Almost got captured...still, looking nothing like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 OBX is hard hit this run. I think if anything they are ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 That is pretty much a Bonnie track through NC......depending on how big the eye is that run would get the center of the eye maybe 50 miles or so from me to my east.....probably be good enough for some hurricane force gust here....and way to much rain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 rainfall totals are not sig. this run for eastern NC, mostly in the 2" range. coastal counties are 6-12". any shift or wobble east would help keep it offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 UK looks to make landfall GA/SC border day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 And CMC makes landfall in eastern NC day 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: UK looks to make landfall GA/SC border day 5. Just now, packbacker said: And CMC makes landfall in eastern NC day 4-5. No denying the westward trend now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Just now, Brick Tamland said: No denying the westward trend now. Yep, 3 for 3 on global models. ILM would be in trouble with GFS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 This a damaging run for points west in the Appalachians...strong winds will rip fall foliage mountains/foothills on the back side as the storm exits to New England. Minor scruff of snow showers for WV. Freeze for NC mountains. Also check out the heat for the unlucky souls on the west side of the hurricane. Absolutely miserable Asheville southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I'll be intercepting this storm if it hits in GA or SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: I'll be intercepting this storm if it hits in GA or SC. I know it's extremely unlikely but The weenie in me sure wish it would come further west. I'm not so much jealous of those on the coast but I am jealous of those inland in the carolinas right now after this mornings runs as the odds look like they have gone up for a high impact event for the eastern carolinas. . We need the rain badly too. Alas it's virtually zero chance of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: I'll be intercepting this storm if it hits in GA or SC. Will you then take it back to the house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: I'll be intercepting this storm if it hits in GA or SC. if u don't mind big COC roaches in the yard i got a place at oak island. only 1 or 2 sneaks in at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 12z ukmet for those who missed it. would be nice if it stayed overland FL, GA, SC.it would surely be weaker for NC by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 18 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: I'll be intercepting this storm if it hits in GA or SC. I might be doing this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 12z GEFS is a tick west of the op through day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: 12z ukmet for those who missed it. would be nice if it stayed overland FL, GA, SC.it would surely be weaker for NC by then As stated before a track like that would devastate the Florida and GA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 NAVGEM takes it over FL into the gulf, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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