Poimen Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 9 hours ago, packbacker said: I wonder how many hurricanes have gotten to 78W and missed land. Many hurricanes have reached 78 only to miss land. It happens more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 24 minutes ago, Poimen said: Many hurricanes have reached 78 only to miss land. It happens more often than not. More hurricanes miss land from 78w then make landfall? I doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 14 minutes ago, packbacker said: More hurricanes miss land from 78w then make landfall? I doubt that. I dunno there have been a bunch, Dennis 99 ( he looped and did landfall as a TS ), Irene 99, Alex 04 and that's just off the top of my head.....be interesting to see just how many have been there and missed versus it... Matt looking like he is about to clear out a bigger eye..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 46 minutes ago, downeastnc said: I dunno there have been a bunch, Dennis 99 ( he looped and did landfall as a TS ), Irene 99, Alex 04 and that's just off the top of my head.....be interesting to see just how many have been there and missed versus it... Matt looking like he is about to clear out a bigger eye..... Both made landfall on the OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I see the forecasted track is further west this morning. Looks like a threat to NC now. Hope it weakens before it hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Both made landfall on the OBX. which ones? none of those ever had any land in NC in the center so technically they didn't landfall as hurricanes..... Both hurricane models came well west on the 06Z, this thing is starting to trend west again a bit..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 17 minutes ago, downeastnc said: which ones? none of those ever had any land in NC in the center so technically they didn't landfall as hurricanes..... Both hurricane models came well west on the 06Z, this thing is starting to trend west again a bit..... Irene and Alex eyewall passed over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Irene and Alex eyewall passed over land. Sure but that doesn't count as a landfall......the center of the eye has to cross land to be officially tallied as a landfall.....if Matt gets within 20 miles of the coast but the center doesn't cross then its not a landfall....I think its safe to say that almost every storm that has been west of 78W has impacted NC in a meaningful way.....but lots of them have missed as far as counting them as landfalls. Also most storms that miss like that rarely have impacts inland beyond some rain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 fixed link, up to 40%. bodes well for track of Matthew not going inland into the S/E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 17 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Sure but that doesn't count as a landfall......the center of the eye has to cross land to be officially tallied as a landfall.....if Matt gets within 20 miles of the coast but the center doesn't cross then its not a landfall....I think its safe to say that almost every storm that has been west of 78W has impacted NC in a meaningful way.....but lots of them have missed as far as counting them as landfalls. Also most storms that miss like that rarely have impacts inland beyond some rain..... I count them :-). But, that was the point, not many hurricanes get to 78w and not have a meaningful impact to atleast the coast. 0z euro tracks it to almost 80w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: I count them :-). But, that was the point, not many hurricanes get to 78w and not have a meaningful impact to atleast the coast. 0z euro tracks it to almost 80w. Yah I am sure the folks on Hatteras count Alex too....it wont take much of a change for this to be a solid hit on NC..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Admittedly, I don't have hard date to prove it, but as a life-long resident of the OBX (until 6 years ago), I just know that I've seen a number of storms (counting all tropical cyclones, not just hurricanes) get within that range and miss the coast completely. It happens--and it could happen here. Or, it could cross the coast. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Latest from Greg Fishel at WRAL: EUROPEAN TRENDS CONCERNING FOR COAST BUT NOT IN RALEIGH Yesterday I discussed the many uncertainties with Matthew, and that one of the things large hurricanes can do is to build the upper level ridge ahead of it by transporting warm, tropical air northward. Well, run by run the European Model is showing more and more ridging aloft to the north and east of Matthew(see image), which would favor a more westward track. This puts the NC Coast in play, particularly the Outer Banks for possible Hurricane conditions, if not a landfall late this week. And because of the slow movement of this system, the impacts on the coast could span a 2-3 day period. Is there still a chance the worst of Matthew remains offshore? Absolutely. And I am not gonna try and be a hero by telling you exactly where Matthew will be Friday at 6pm. I learned a long time ago those kind of forecasts are for folks with delusions of grandeur, and I gave up those delusions long ago :-). Now, what about Central North Carolina? Now here's something about which I have high confidence. This will not be a Fran or a Hazel and cut NW all the way to Raleigh. Yes the atmosphere is chaotic and unpredictable at times, but just because we don't know everything doesn't mean we don't know anything. I feel confident in saying that if Matthew makes landfall along our coast, it's inland progress will be minimal. Now for those of you east of Raleigh, say Rocky Mount, Wilson, Goldsboro, and Clinton, you could still see gusty winds and heavy rain, but many times storms like these have a very tight gradient of rainfall on their western side. So a slight deviation in track makes the difference between no rain and a few inches. Again, stay tuned. Will try and do some Facebook lives this week to try and keep you updated. My 27th wedding anniversary is Friday. Looks like the celebrating may have to be on a different day :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 UKMet Ensemble Members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Someone at the tropics forum said Floyd and Hazel are showing up as analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 12z NAM looks like a hit to Miami at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 ^ It's keeping the ridge pretty stout. That's going to be key. The Euro has a pretty stout ridge at that time frame too. It just gets broken down some after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 10 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Someone at the tropics forum said Floyd and Hazel are showing up as analogs. Fishel said it best, this isn't Hazel as we don't have the trough in the OhV. Although the GFS has been trying to hint at it but the EPS looks nothing like that. Amazing seeing how different GEFS/EPS are at day 5 with the plains trough or lack there of on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 It would be interesting to see if Matty slowed down another day or 2 with that GEFS look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 The worse thing for Florida is if this thing rides the coast south to north. There are many areas north of Miami that have not experienced a direct hit (at least recently) and have very little protection from storm surge. As a kid my dad was stationed at Cape Canaveral. That whole island is barely above sea level, as many other areas along the east coast. It would be devastating if this storm hits those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: It would be interesting to see if Matty slowed down another day or 2 with that GEFS look. Might not even need that, while he wont go NW like Hazel he could get inland over eastern NC before turning NE, if the trough is weaker or slower and the high offshore stronger, maybe he rides right up between I-95 and Hwy 17 like Floyd or Bertha, that would give RDU a decent thump for sure.....but that's about as far west as I see being possible, he would have to be on the fast side of things as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Now would be a good time for someone to post recent 500mb height verification scores of Euro/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 GFS has 588d ridge trapping Matty...this run could hit FL. I don't recall previous GFS runs showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 gonna have to make a hard right to miss the east coast this run. west thru 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 12z gfs more ridge to the n/e and e, so shift west this run, will likely hit OBX this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: gonna have to make a hard right to miss the east coast this run. west thru 72 Yeah 90 hr plot 150 miles further west than 06Z that's significant, and about as far west as I have seen the GFS off Florida.....gonna take a monster east turn to miss NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 this one is going to hit nc i believe. way west thru 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Big cane v/s big ridge...let's see who wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Looks like it will try to make landfall around MYR or the SC/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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