NCHurricane Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 26 minutes ago, downeastnc said: For us the main issue is the trough in the plains, how fast/slow and deep it gets if its slow and deep then Matt will come on in, the latest GFS is 150 miles offshore the GFS seems to go back and forth every run just off the coast or just on the coast.....what will concern me is if it starts to run a few NC/SC border hits etc....right now it seems like worst case would be MHX to KDH which is bad but if it was 75 miles further west it would put a lot of bigger cities in the way, Wilmington, New Bern, Greenville etc....Hwy 17 west should not get hammered to hard with the track the GS has when it does show a hit. I agree a landfall is less likely than a miss even if its a close one....however the fact the models shift 200 miles tells me its all about the trough in the central plains.....the outlier west runs are the ones that have that he slowest deepest out west, the Euro came west a lot because it moved towards a slwer deeper trough as well....it might not be enough to get a land fall but the chances Matt gets close to the NC coast are pretty good.... This is what I always look for in relation to eastern NC. If Myrtle Beach to Southport begin to come into play run after run, it's almost always a lock for us, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Interesting seeing UK making landfall day 5 in FL and then riding the coast. Still don't see how this gets pulled inland though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 12 minutes ago, packbacker said: Interesting seeing UK making landfall day 5 in FL and then riding the coast. Still don't see how this gets pulled inland though. I'm not going out on a limb again; early on I kept thinking Cleo 1964; then I backed off (posted as to both); now I'm wondering once more .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 The way this thing keep drifting more and more west unlike the forecasts predicted shows this thing going OTS, but it might be an actual threat to the east coasts of FL, GA, SC, and NC with multiple LFs. I am not trying to scare anyone but this thing could very much do this. The troughs like over the Central Plains could have little impact on this storm ultimately. Numerous times major hurricanes start creating their own storm paths regardless of the jet stream does to it. This thing essentially creating its own atmospheric environment surrounding with the way it seems to consistently wobbling further west. Now if this was a split branched jet stream (northern and southern branches) like what exists in active periods for severe weather then I would agree with these possibilities, but this does not seem to be the case. This storm seems to be clearly defying all of the storm models forecasts on path and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 I agree. Decades of tracking these things too many times have I seen the big ones start doing the funky monkey leaving forecasters scratching their heads, especially when the storms are in the area this one is. The overall trend with this thing has been more west incrementally than forecast. I also thought the 11am discussion kinda said it all about the uncertainty. The part below is something I've rarely if ever seen in a discussion..... Also there has been a persistent, but inexplicable, cluster of deep convection located a couple of degrees to the east of the hurricane and the effect of this feature on Matthew's intensity evolution is unknown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 21 minutes ago, kayman said: The way this thing keep drifting more and more west unlike the forecasts predicted shows this thing going OTS, but it might be an actual threat to the east coasts of FL, GA, SC, and NC with multiple LFs. I am not trying to scare anyone but this thing could very much do this. The troughs like over the Central Plains could have little impact on this storm ultimately. Numerous times major hurricanes start creating their own storm paths regardless of the jet stream does to it. This thing essentially creating its own atmospheric environment surrounding with the way it seems to consistently wobbling further west. Now if this was a split branched jet stream (northern and southern branches) like what exists in active periods for severe weather then I would agree with these possibilities, but this does not seem to be the case. This storm seems to be clearly defying all of the storm models forecasts on path and intensity. Hurricanes are controlled by their surroundings.....a hurricane wants to go north, always.....north of the tropics the flow aloft is west to east that's why when you go look at hurricane tracks they all end up heading NE unless they fizzle...Matt is currently doing a classic stair step wobble motion of a turning major hurricane....these things do not turn in a smooth curve they wobble in small looping motions. The trough in the plains will be the exact reason why this thing does or does not hit the US....if its to slow or to shallow or to weak and it doesnt push the NE ridge east then the SE coast is in trouble....if its fast or deep enough it will kick that ridge east and allow Matt a out to the NE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Been a long time since we've had one like this to play with. Looking really ominous and beautiful at the same time. Kind of like my girlfriend when I forget to take out the trash ;)......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: Hurricanes are controlled by their surroundings.....a hurricane wants to go north, always.....north of the tropics the flow aloft is west to east that's why when you go look at hurricane tracks they all end up heading NE unless they fizzle...Matt is currently doing a classic stair step wobble motion of a turning major hurricane....these things do not turn in a smooth curve they wobble in small looping motions. The trough in the plains will be the exact reason why this thing does or does not hit the US....if its to slow or to shallow or to weak and it doesnt push the NE ridge east then the SE coast is in trouble....if its fast or deep enough it will kick that ridge east and allow Matt a out to the NE.... Sometimes the surroundings can affect the path of a major hurricane, but not always. I've watch major hurricanes force front boundaries supported by deep troughs waiver due to their hurricane's strength. I agree yes most will go north, but this one may not go to the northeasterly direction as soon as we may expect. This is one that has defy all the forecasting patterns of how the surroundings will force its northerly ascent. That's why I am saying do be surprised if this one makes multiple landfalls along the Southeast coast if it is able to continue a westerly jog further before turning north-eventually-northeasterly with the typical path of Atlantic tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 1 minute ago, kayman said: Sometimes the surroundings can affect the path of a major hurricane, but not always. I've watch major hurricanes force front boundaries supported by deep troughs waiver due to their hurricane's strength. I agree yes most will go north, but this one may not go to the northeasterly direction as soon as we may expect. This is one that has defy all the forecasting patterns of how the surroundings will force its northerly ascent. That's why I am saying do be surprised if this one makes multiple landfalls along the Southeast coast if it is able to continue a westerly jog further before turning north-eventually-northeasterly with the typical path of Atlantic tropical systems. Not really though its moving generally NNW now and if its anywhere between Jamaica and Haiti tomorrow afternoon then it isnt defying the forecast pattern at all....it needs to go either west of Jamaica or into the DR to be well outside the current forecast thinking from NHC... It could very well hit the US coast in several places but there is little indication at this point that the hurricane isnt going where they think it is at least over the next 72 hrs, after that the trough over the central US will either kick it out or let it come in, Matt may play a roll in that by possibly pumping up the ridge to his NE making it more likely he goes further NW, but the models should pick up on that once he gets into the Bahamas and by then we should have a good grasp on the front....anywhere from FL to NE is in play right now but the most likely landfall if there is one will be NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, kayman said: Sometimes the surroundings can affect the path of a major hurricane, but not always. I've watch major hurricanes force front boundaries supported by deep troughs waiver due to their hurricane's strength. I agree yes most will go north, but this one may not go to the northeasterly direction as soon as we may expect. This is one that has defy all the forecasting patterns of how the surroundings will force its northerly ascent. That's why I am saying do be surprised if this one makes multiple landfalls along the Southeast coast if it is able to continue a westerly jog further before turning north-eventually-northeasterly with the typical path of Atlantic tropical systems. While I agree, I would think it would be more due to very strong storms modifying the steering ridge, there by indirectly affecting the trough. Overall a storm is a slave to the greater synoptic pattern surrounding it but they have, can and do modify the local environment which in turn can have a fairly large effect on the exact point it ends up at 5,6,7 days out. Then again it may get to a modeled point that far out, just not take the path the models predicted to get there. That's what makes this fun IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 3 hours ago, packbacker said: Interesting seeing UK making landfall day 5 in FL and then riding the coast. Still don't see how this gets pulled inland though. Based on the 12z GEFS, Miami Florida has a higher probability of landfall than the OBX. Interesting tidbit. I'm hoping no members with a landfall on the 18z...that would be refreshing to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 12z UKMET ensemble, hard to tell with the small lines but I count about 10 that do not make landfall. Cool site, unfortunately no Euro data. http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Forecast vs "actual" - you will need to check both the Lon/Lat and F'cast Points boxes to get the idea http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/flash-vis-short.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 16 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: 12z UKMET ensemble, hard to tell with the small lines but I count about 10 that no not make landfall. Cool site, unfortunately no Euro data. http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/ Allan tweeted this image out. It appears west of the 00z mean track as Allan mentioned on twitter, however I think this is because of the extreme western outlines in the gulf and over Florida that are skewing the mean west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Starting to look fishy once it gets past the Bahamas which is fine. That way I won't have to pay attention to the models all week long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Main thread is getting hard to read those guys are freaking out over every little wobble.....other than the 06Z gfs run this morning all signs still point to a track a couple hundred miles off the coast...still I wont be 100% sure he is gonna miss until he is even with Hatteras, offshore and headed NE..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Still I'm almost eagle eying Matthew, sibce the seasonal trends have been bringing tropical cyclones (albeit weaker systems) this season so far. Ridging has overall held very strongly across our region during the summer and has continued to be quite stubborn even now. Let's also remember as Matthew gets past the Bahamas, the expected wind field is forecast to greatly expand with the strong pressure gradient from the high to the north and Matthew to the south. It still may end up well offshore but still bring heavy rains and strong winds into portions of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 What does everyone think about a track similar to Hazel? Both are Oct storms, and Matthew is set to split the uprights of Cuba & Haiti just like Hazel did. Now...Matthew would then have to be steered more NW than what most models are currently showing, and then go due north into the SC/NC state line as it gets near the gulf stream. But still...I'm wondering if this scenario can't be ruled out? Is the setup any way similar to that historic storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 I don't think we have much history with hurricanes this big in October. I think what happens with Matthew is really anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 10 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said: What does everyone think about a track similar to Hazel? Both are Oct storms, and Matthew is set to split the uprights of Cuba & Haiti just like Hazel did. 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I don't think we have much history with hurricanes this big in October. I think what happens with Matthew is really anyone's guess. HAHAHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 12 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I don't think we have much history with hurricanes this big in October. I think what happens with Matthew is really anyone's guess. Loltroll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I wonder how many hurricanes have gotten to 78W and missed land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 2 hours ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said: HAHAHA 2 hours ago, Isopycnic said: Loltroll How many hurricanes this big have we had in October that is a threat to the US? I don't think it has happened very often. That is what I am talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 I posted an update/video on Matthew if anyone is interested/needs some pre-bed sleeping material lol... https://www.facebook.com/BHuffWx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Thanks for the great update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 59 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I posted an update/video on Matthew if anyone is interested/needs some pre-bed sleeping material lol... https://www.facebook.com/BHuffWx/ Well done. Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 obx landfall @ 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 1 hour ago, Snowacane said: Well done. Thanks!! 1 hour ago, tazaroo said: Thanks for the great update! Thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 good news new update.only place bares watching is the OBX. don't see much support now for inland track for eastern NC or points south down the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Overnight trends were huge in both models. GFS ensemble did in fact, correct WEST towards the operational which is what I've been waiting for to trust the operational tracks. The Euro EPS is kinda concerning with many members west into Florida early, but still not buying a track into Fl. Euro 12z ensemble something to watch for Florida to see if that spread tightens up east or the mean continues to shift west. We still have tons of time for Matthew to get past Cuba to get a clear picture. Allan Huffman tweeted this image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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