Matthew

[WeatherNC]

 40 bucks for the next 6 months is well worth it.  I was suprised to see the euro spaghetti, now if we could only get that for winter storms.  Based on what I have seen with the graphics he has, mean track error, 24hrs trend, and general agreement, the GF suite is doing the best in my opinion.  The likely hood of a quick exit stage right is decreasing and chances of Mathew having atleast some impact to the EC is on the upidi up.

[pcbjr]

6 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

and chances of Mathew having at least some impact to the EC is on the upidi up.

you ain't just whistlin' "Dixie"

 

I'll say it until I'm blue or proven wrong - Cleo 1964 ....

[Shawn]

With the latest pass 11PM shall bring our first Atlantic Cat 5 in 9 years (Felix). 

[downeastnc]

40 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

 40 bucks for the next 6 months is well worth it.  I was suprised to see the euro spaghetti, now if we could only get that for winter storms.  Based on what I have seen with the graphics he has, mean track error, 24hrs trend, and general agreement, the GF suite is doing the best in my opinion.  The likely hood of a quick exit stage right is decreasing and chances of Mathew having atleast some impact to the EC is on the upidi up.

Well while I am a wind junkie I also am ready for deer season lol... should did this crap a month ago....besides my roof is new from Irene....really dont need one replaced right now lol. 

[Brick Tamland]

Cat 5 with 160 mph winds. Pressure keeps dropping and getting stronger.

[ncskywarn]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Cat 5 with 160 mph winds. Pressure keeps dropping and getting stronger.

Yeah and they have also increased the size of the cone of uncertainty South Florida is now within that cone.

[pcbjr]

Just now, ncskywarn said:

eah and they have also increased the size of the cone of uncertainty South Florida is now within that cone.

like i told you, what i said, steal your face right off your head

[Jackstraw]

2 hours ago, pcbjr said:

like i told you, what i said, steal your face right off your head

t just always seems that any storm that forms before the Islands, the model track are almost always East biased.  Just go back through the NHC graphic archives over the yeas and you can see it.   The 5 day cone more often than not works it's way west    I know the cone is not a model but in the last NHC graphic it's got a slight bend back to the west in the cone.  Also, and maybe it's because I started following these things with John Hope, as it turns follow the moisture.  Right now the flow is right off of the east coast but theres a lot of moisture beginning to develop over S. Fl.  It's going to start modifying the environment as strong as it is.  Any model plot beyond 48 hours has a lower than average chance of verifying right now IMO.  Any CONUS potential is still 4-5 days out, the models don't handle cutoffs well, I'd keep my ears perked from TPA to CHS right now.  Big boys surprise, just because they're strong doesn't make them more predictable, especially this time of year.

[Shawn]

Euro says away to sea I go.  Far away from you SE guys.  In fact, so far away that it was a waste of time watching!  I think now, I will go with the Euro idea.  The storm reached max strength it seems.   It was fun to watch.

 

Edit: sarcasm may not be noted there.  I wasn't serious.  still a serious storm to watch and if it makes the turn tomorrow night or not on time.

[NWNC2015]

6z gfs Matthew helps with snow cover to our north a great deal

also little snow cover showing up western NC, north-east TN, south-west Virginia, West Virginia IF any moisture hangs around the western slopes of the mountains Sunday...but fairly warm mid upper 30s...likely no accumulation but possible to see something frozen fall from the sky

[NWNC2015]

ukmet ensembles several bad hits for S/E including interior

[NWNC2015]

UKM2 model landfall in Charleston, SC.....passes just north-east of Charlotte, NC......and stops near the northern foothills. Central NC is pretty much destroyed. 

[packbacker]

The new disturbance out in the atlantic looks to the stunt the ridge.  Why Euro went so far east and 6z GFS/GEFS backed off too.   Will be interesting to see if the 12z runs keep backing off US threat.

0z v/s 6z GFS

 

 

 

 

 

[downeastnc]

Cool loop showing the other low, also note the NW outflow ending up 1000 miles behind Matthew well east of the LA.....shear beating up on that low, still it seems to be holding its own for now.....if it does scoot NE I think it will give Matt a out and save the east coast from any threat of a direct hit....again complicated setup, this low, the NE trough, the upper plains trough etc etc etc.....I doubt any one model has a decent handle on how they all play together just yet....

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html

[Hvward]

EWRC looks to have been in progress since this morning. 12z Euro slows the Great Lakes low by around a day and that makes things much more interesting for the East Coast compared to the 0z run. These big swings though tell me exactly what downeast eluded to with no model really having a handle. I mean the timing of this trough is huge and if it continues to slow down, I don't know what will keep this storm from making landfall somewhere on the Southern East Coast. Time will tell, but I am looking for trends on the models as compared to trying to nail down an exact track. 2-3 day ahead is about the best we can do on avg with forecasting a landfalling Hurricane location.

[NWNC2015]

21 minutes ago, Hvward said:

I mean the timing of this trough is huge and if it continues to slow down, I don't know what will keep this storm from making landfall somewhere on the Southern East Coast.

The area of interest behind Matthew is up to 20% and could help it turn out to sea. 50% of the EURO ensembles support development. GFS has no development and as a result brings a record setting storm to the OBX. Surprised no one here is talking about the later, all I see is a GFS non-hi res post. 

[Jackstraw]

Miss Piggy rockin in the eyewall, bet that's fun, wish I was there.  Looked like some big chunks of dry air were getting ingested most of the afternoon but doesn't seem to be affecting it much yet.  Pretty wild dropsonde in the N eyewall...

 

 

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 0° (N) from the eye center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 13.09N 73.31W
- Time: 18:46:17Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 13.17N 73.22W
- Time: 18:50:02Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 141 knots (162 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 111 knots (128 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 755mb to 957mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 180° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 137 knots (158 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 33297

[NWNC2015]

I knew a magical 90 degree turn wouldn't be so easy for Matthew...its headed east or doing some kind of cyclonic loop right now trying to figure out what to do...it may even stall.

[pcbjr]

23 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Miss Piggy rockin in the eyewall, bet that's fun, wish I was there.  Looked like some big chunks of dry air were getting ingested most of the afternoon but doesn't seem to be affecting it much yet.  Pretty wild dropsonde in the N eyewall...

 

 

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 0° (N) from the eye center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 13.09N 73.31W
- Time: 18:46:17Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 13.17N 73.22W
- Time: 18:50:02Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 141 knots (162 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 111 knots (128 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 755mb to 957mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 180° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 137 knots (158 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 33297

Just then the wind
Came squalling through the door
But who can
The weather command?

[pcbjr]

23 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

I knew a magical 90 degree turn wouldn't be so easy for Matthew...its headed east or doing some kind of cyclonic loop right now trying to figure out what to do...it may even stall.

It's the magical mystery tour

Step right this way ....

[Brick Tamland]

I have been working in the yard and out all day. Can someone catch me up on what the models are showing now for the track?

[yotaman]

1 hour ago, NWNC2015 said:

I knew a magical 90 degree turn wouldn't be so easy for Matthew...its headed east or doing some kind of cyclonic loop right now trying to figure out what to do...it may even stall.

It is doing a real nice loop. Wonder if it will head west again or north after loop is completed.

 

[yotaman]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I have been working in the yard and out all day. Can someone catch me up on what the models are showing now for the track?

I get all my info from here: http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

[pcbjr]

Famous last words: I guess all of Florida is now out of the woods.

I therefore humbly retract my Cleo analogy ....

[NWNC2015]

45 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

Famous last words: I guess all of Florida is now out of the woods.

I therefore humbly retract my Cleo analogy ....

The threat is lowering but 2 of the 5 high probability members of the EURO hit Florida and one comes dangerously close. Also the UKMET is in that camp Florida should watch.

 

[Moonhowl]

7 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Cool loop showing the other low, also note the NW outflow ending up 1000 miles behind Matthew well east of the LA.....shear beating up on that low, still it seems to be holding its own for now.....if it does scoot NE I think it will give Matt a out and save the east coast from any threat of a direct hit....again complicated setup, this low, the NE trough, the upper plains trough etc etc etc.....I doubt any one model has a decent handle on how they all play together just yet....

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html

That is an interesting visual.  Here's to hoping Matthew gets yanked OTS.

[Jon]

Would make a GIF, but I'm lazy (just got back from Brazil, one red-eye flight and 16 hours of flying later, so forgive me)

Anyway, guidance is shifting east for the short term. When monitoring trends regarding landfall, the east trend is good for Jamaica and Santiago de Cuba (Cuba's 2nd largest city with over 500,000 people). It still looks to get hit, but not direct if this trend continues. This trend is of course bad for Haiti.

Go here, load up 00z 06z 12z and 18z runs (on the right) in tabs on your browser and click between them, you'll see a shift east. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

The threat should be minimal for the greater SE, however even that call is premature until get gets over greater Caribbean, restrengthens and we get updated recon.  Ignore the OP GFS for now, the operational is way east of the ensemble mean track, which continues to be out to sea. 18z just updated, spread decreased substantially from the 12z ensembles...which is good for the east coast, obviously.

[pcbjr]

1 minute ago, Jon said:

Would make a GIF, but I'm lazy (just got back from Brazil, one red-eye flight and 16 hours of flying later, so forgive me)

Anyway, guidance is shifting east for the short term. When monitoring trends regarding landfall, the east trend is good for Jamaica and Santiago de Cuba (Cuba's 2nd largest city with over 500,000 people). It still looks to get hit, but not direct if this trend continues. This trend is of course bad for Haiti.

Go here, load up 00z 06z 12z and 18z runs (on the right) in tabs on your browser and click between them, you'll see a shift east. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

The threat should be minimal for the greater SE, however even that call is premature until get gets over greater Caribbean, restrengthens and we get updated recon.  Ignore the OP GFS for now, the operational is way east of the ensemble mean track, which continues to be out to sea. 18z just updated, spread decreased substantially from the 12z ensembles...which is good for the east coast, obviously.

Welcome back!!!

Phil

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like Matty is going to be a major hurricane after crossing Cuba. Hope he goes out to sea because this looks very dangerous.

[downeastnc]

RDU says it best, with this 

This low is expected to move onshore in the northwest U.S. on
Sunday. As a result, expect model forecasts to come into better
agreement on Monday and hopefully have a better idea how the low
will progress and the impacts that will have on Matthew. Will
reserve specific details on temps, cloud cover, and precipitation
chances until then.

 

The timing of this S/W digging in the plains will either open or close the door on a NC landfall....that and the low to the NE of Matthew or even if there is a low NE of Matthews....if it digs harder and the GFS corrects 100 miles west after getting that S/W sampled it would have a huge impact on NC....and obviously vice versa. The GFS is so close because it does dig that wave pretty hard where as the Euro and CMC not so much although the Euro did cave a bit to the GFS at 12Z today and strengthen it more than it had been thus the more west plots on Euro through 168...but as usual a lot of runs between now and say next Tue/Wed...when emergency managers up this way got to start making calls with regard to evacs etc...