LMA1973 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 2:18 AM, Hugo said: That's the NHC's forecast. Expand 5 days out...all i can guarantee you is it wont look like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 00z NAM is coming in east. But it was so wack before, I don't know if it matters at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 1:22 AM, jshetley said: Yeah we all need the rain in both of western NC and SC. Hopefully this system weakens before coming into the Carolinas, if indeed it does come this far west. The coastal areas really do not need a major tropical system. By the way, congrats on the red tag.Thanks man! Its sad that we up here in the western part of nc/sc would welcome 3-5 inches of rain but 100 miles east and it could ruin crops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Mike Maze from WRAL said this on Facebook: Someone on my Facebook page posted the track of Hurricane Hazel from back in October of 1954 and the actual track looks eerily similar to the current track of Hurricane Matthew. Unfortunately I don't have access to the upper level wind charts of how the atmosphere looked when Hazel made landfall in North Carolina so there could have been a different set of pressure patterns at play back then. We shall see what the future holds and if Matthew is more trouble than what we currently suspect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 0z NAM is having it ride up parallel to FLA coast but offshore some, so a tad east of last runs at 18z, at least thru 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markemark Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:45 AM, BIG FROSTY said: Who is this Guy? Expand That'll be internet weather kook and scam artist Kevin Martin. Looks like he started this site back in April [link]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 2:43 AM, Brick Tamland said: Mike Maze from WRAL said this on Facebook: Someone on my Facebook page posted the track of Hurricane Hazel from back in October of 1954 and the actual track looks eerily similar to the current track of Hurricane Matthew. Unfortunately I don't have access to the upper level wind charts of how the atmosphere looked when Hazel made landfall in North Carolina so there could have been a different set of pressure patterns at play back then. We shall see what the future holds and if Matthew is more trouble than what we currently suspect! Expand This discussion of Hazel's track sounds....familiar...;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 2:31 AM, HKY_WX said: Just posted an updated video on my fb page for anyone interested. Expand Thanks for the video it was a very good discussion of the setup for the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 00z GFS is coming in and nobody is talking. What happened to this place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 3:36 AM, WidreMann said: 00z GFS is coming in and nobody is talking. What happened to this place? Expand its only out to 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Back in my day, people would look at upper level trends and such to see where things would likely end up at the critical hour. C'mon folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 3:42 AM, WidreMann said: Back in my day, people would look at upper level trends and such to see where things would likely end up at the critical hour. C'mon folks! Expand thunderstorms much stronger over oregon this run @24, arctic ice a tad stronger too, def gonna be a sc hit, 935mb landfall in north myrtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 There we go. That wasn't so hard. But you forgot about the AAO trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 12:45 AM, BIG FROSTY said: Who is this Guy?Like Love Haha Wow Sad Angry Expand An idiot named Kevin. Who runs around on a site called "GLP" or "godlikeproductions" aka a conspiracy forum. Long story short, he has been a problem for a very very long time in the weather community. Even NOAA got involved with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 It looks north and west. Ridging in the ATL is similar to 18z. I expect a similar outcome, although maybe a little further east early, and a little further west later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Thru 60 the Bermuda ridge is stronger but NE ridge is a little weaker....maybe it climbs quicker. Splitting hairs really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 a tad quicker thru 66, may allow it to come inland a bit before the hard right in sc/nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 very close to a florida landfall at 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Through 84....slightly west version of 12z run. Faster then 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Sun angle will take its toll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 going to come more inland sc this run before being pushed east i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 It's a good 60-70 miles faster than the 18z. Looks like it'll hit SC coast for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 3:58 AM, tarheelwx said: Sun angle will take its toll. Expand dont forget soil temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Or it may stay off the coast entirely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 gfs has it at 935mb off jax. not sure if that is believable if it hugs the coast of fl as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 4:00 AM, DopplerWx said: dont forget soil temps. Expand Rates will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 chas landfall @ 105hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Not looking good for CHS. I'll just put it that way. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 940mb or so at landfall. surge would be big for the ga/sc coast for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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