Ser Pounce Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Might as well pick up a little extra at Sam's club on the way home from work. I needed to fill up the car anyway and get granola bars that I take to work for breakfast. Some more canned and dry food to replace supplies we ate earlier this year are due anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 4:59 PM, packbacker said: NAVGEM takes it over FL into the gulf, LOL. Expand I was just about to post that. It then takes it into georgia. c'mon navgem! When your only chance is the navgem you are usually in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 12z GEFS was a tick west of Op through day 5 but then skirts east a little of the Op thereafter. Members day 5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 4:55 PM, WXinCanton said: I might be doing this as well. Expand I'll PM you if the trends continue. Maybe we can coordinate and caravan down. lookout. I'm the same way. The weenie in me wants to pull this west but that much west is not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 5:02 PM, Lookout said: I was just about to post that. It then takes it into georgia. c'mon navgem! When your only chance is the navgem you are usually in trouble. Expand I don't know...UK was fairly far west, we don't what the path was day 4 -5 do we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 well history is against us, 2/2 major hits for the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 5:02 PM, LithiaWx said: I'll PM you if the trends continue. Maybe we can coordinate and caravan down. lookout. I'm the same way. The weenie in me wants to pull this west but that much west is not happening. Expand Cool, I'm trying to lay the groundwork to take a day or two off work if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 SC hasn't had a mandatory hurricane evacuation since 1999. If these models continue to hold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Gefs mean is way west Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 5:10 PM, Stormcatt said: Gefs mean is way west Expand Yep, it was slower and substantially west of its previous run. No denying the trends here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 That latest GFS run is alarming for the Jacksonville, and Wilmington area. We have been dealing with flooding recently and there is still a lot of standing water. Anxious to see what the next euro holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 12z GFDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 5:02 PM, LithiaWx said: I'll PM you if the trends continue. Maybe we can coordinate and caravan down. lookout. I'm the same way. The weenie in me wants to pull this west but that much west is not happening.Yep this one will be chaseable with that track. Think I will be heading that way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Interesting...Euro makes landfall on western tip of Haiti and scoots in between Cuba/Haiti after. 0z it missed Haiti and clipped eastern Cuba. Really goes to town on western Haiti, crawls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 5:49 PM, Hvward said: Yep this one will be chaseable with that track. Think I will be heading that way as well. Expand The only way this storm should be chaseable is if folks are chased away from the path. No way in the world would I head for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 HWRF about worst case for Emerald Isle, Cat 3 right in the teeth Then once inland it would be worse case for the Pamlico River basin...80-100 mph sustained winds blowing right up the river, the surge would be historic....this would give even RDU gust well into TS force....MBY might even get 80-100 mph gust if the pressure was really that low and this was a 120mph Cat 3. This pressure looks more realistic that the sub 950 stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Full GFDL track. This would be nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 5:56 PM, FallsLake said: The only way this storm should be chaseable is if folks are chased away from the path. No way in the world would I head for the coast.Yeah I try and find a parking deck where I can get 3-4 stories high. That way I have a solid wind/rain break. I wasn't suggesting others chase.. just stating that this could be the first decent sized storm on the Southeastern Coast for chasers to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 6:08 PM, Hvward said: Yeah I try and find a parking deck where I can get 3-4 stories high. That way I have a solid wind/rain break. I wasn't suggesting others chase.. just stating that this could be the first decent sized storm on the Southeastern Coast for chasers to chase. Expand Problem is getting on the islands, if you do not have a resident sticker they aint letting you on, once the mandatory evacs go up the bridges are one way only...without that sticker.....if you do chase you will have to stay on the mainland somewhere....best bet would be ILM or Jacksonville, onshore, lots of hotels etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Day 4 Euro is a hair west of 0z run. Not far off GFS track, just a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 euro huggin the fl coast just like the gfs. if we see agreement here in the next few frames watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 It's actually a tick west of GFS but just 6-9 hours slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 6:18 PM, DopplerWx said: euro huggin the fl coast just like the gfs. if we see agreement here in the next few frames watch out. Expand Still 5 days out but the fact the models are getting better sampling of the players and now all of a sudden we get this general consensus is bad news for SC/NC for sure...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 6:10 PM, downeastnc said: Problem is getting on the islands, if you do not have a resident sticker they aint letting you on, once the mandatory evacs go up the bridges are one way only...without that sticker.....if you do chase you will have to stay on the mainland somewhere....best bet would be ILM or Jacksonville, onshore, lots of hotels etc....Yeah not really trying to get stuck out on an island even though I have friends out on Bald Head. I was thinking that Wilmington might be a good spot, but of course that could all change by tomorrow. I will have to work on Monday here in Asheville, so having a way out will be important. You may not have to venture too far from home to chase this one man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 @ 120hr looks like its very similar to the gfs, closing in on sc/nc border. 942mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 6:08 PM, Hvward said: Yeah I try and find a parking deck where I can get 3-4 stories high. That way I have a solid wind/rain break. I wasn't suggesting others chase.. just stating that this could be the first decent sized storm on the Southeastern Coast for chasers to chase. Expand If it should happen to come in anywhere along the SC coast south of Myrtle you won't get anywhere near the coast, especially a 4 or 5. I was a system admin for the city of Charleston and the evac procedures will stop anyone from coming into Charleston county. They take it very seriously after the Hugo fiasco. Plus 17 south of Georgetown all the way to Savannah is nearly non accessible during mandatory evacs for cat 3 or higher storm. There are very few roads to get people off of the coast in that stretch and they will take priority. Either get on beach early and grab your balls or stay away if it comes in down there. It will be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Problem with the Euro making landfall, unlike the GFS is the ridge to it's north, just rots away off the SC coast. Looks like it will head east after this and miss land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 941 crawling 100 or so miles off the SC/GA border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 6:21 PM, Hvward said: Yeah not really trying to get stuck out on an island even though I have friends out on Bald Head. I was thinking that Wilmington might be a good spot, but of course that could all change by tomorrow. I will have to work on Monday here in Asheville, so having a way out will be important. You may not have to venture too far from home to chase this one man. Expand not gonna chase cause i have a 9 month old son and won't be leaving him. like you said may not have to chase at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 On 10/3/2016 at 6:21 PM, Hvward said: Yeah not really trying to get stuck out on an island even though I have friends out on Bald Head. I was thinking that Wilmington might be a good spot, but of course that could all change by tomorrow. I will have to work on Monday here in Asheville, so having a way out will be important. You may not have to venture too far from home to chase this one man. Expand Yeah sucks when they chase you hehe, I am a wind junkie so that part of me is like BRING IT ON....then the homeowner side of me is like hell no....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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