TalcottWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, Tibet said: Surge in the Neptune beach area is going to be nasty... ocean is going to more or less roll over it like it wasn't there. Can you post Ormond Beach and Daytona area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, Jackstraw said: Don't worry, it's moving 10 mph they are not gonna miss much. If RI continues, they'll actually be missing quite a bit. Should get there in time for the winds to catch up to the pressure drops though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: Can you post Ormond Beach and Daytona area? Will pull them up in a moment... but last I looked the actual ocean side looked to fair pretty well... but the west side of the Halifax River is in trouble. Will get them posted asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Symmetry is starting to look a lot better now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Ormond / Daytona... Was just discussing this with someone else, but it looks like the dunes / walls may save the immediate ocean side, which is ironic as the more inland locations to the west of the Halifax River fair far worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, Tibet said: Ormond / Daytona... Was just discussing this with someone else, but it looks like the dunes / walls may save the immediate ocean side, which is ironic as the more inland locations to the west of the Halifax River fair far worse. Cocoa Beach area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jh28wd40 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I just heard a c130 taking off from Macdill AFB, I wonder if that's a recon mission...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 New recon recently departed Keesler AFB... not sure what the ETA is out of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 4 minutes ago, jh28wd40 said: I just heard a c130 taking off from Macdill AFB, I wonder if that's a recon mission...? Looks like this one left from Biloxi Mississippi AF307 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 The eye of Hurricane Matthew is barely visible on KAMX radar, 232 nautical miles away from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 ADT still remains at 6.6, as of 0445Z. Estimated 931.8mb, 129.6 kt... Potential is there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Cape Canaveral / Coca I should have mentioned all of this data comes from the 11pm NHC inundation GIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Pinhole eye is starting to clear out on latest IR imagery. Here we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Euro at 30 is landfall at port . St Lucia roughly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Rides inland up to titusville by 42. Ouch for coastal areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 27 minutes ago, jojo762 said: If RI continues, they'll actually be missing quite a bit. Should get there in time for the winds to catch up to the pressure drops though. This is for another thread but they really arent going to miss that much. RI doesn't happen in the 3 hours it's going to take them to get there it's a much longer process to even be considered RI. They will be back in there in plenty of time to monitor this storm, it's only moving 10 mph. Almost guarantee they will hit the eye before the 5am update which is what they try to do. Not being coarse but they don't fly so we have something to look at every 5 minutes. I've learned over many many years to be patient with these storms and the flights and the models and the forecasts. I'm sure from a science aspect, those guys want 10 planes and drones in a storm like this all the time 24/7. There's a reason the NOAA P3's aren't flying these storms as much as they used to and it has nothing to do with the age of those badass P3's. It is what it is and that's about it, I wish it was better, especially on the NOAA side, Please dont ban me! I hope that answered your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Euro slams all of the coast right up to South Carolina. Pretty much the worst case track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Euro Hi Res has lowest pressure of 934.1mb right roughly 4-6 hours prior to landfall. Wind gusts over 130 knots near the coast with landfall area receiving 100-115 knot gusts. Hurricane force gusts extending inland by 40-50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Looks like a nightmare scenario for sure on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 The HRRR is not really built to be a hurricane model, but the 04z HRRR has a section of the rather wide eyewall into Fort Lauderdale in 18hrs (22z) Scary! It seems so soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Euro Hi Res has lowest pressure of 934.1mb right roughly 4-6 hours prior to landfall. Wind gusts over 130 knots near the coast with landfall area receiving 100-115 knot gusts. Hurricane force gusts extending inland by 40-50 miles. Thanks Scott. Unreal storm. My uncle and aunt about 20 miles north of Fort Lauderdale have already boarded up there house and are preparing for the storm. They said every gas station is out of gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, Chinook said: The HRRR is not really built to be a hurricane model, but the 04z HRRR has a section of the rather wide eyewall into Fort Lauderdale in 18hrs (22z) Scary! It seems so soon. It tends to have a major west bias with every significant low beyond hour 14 or so, so that does not surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jh28wd40 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 The eye has filled back in. Also it looks elongated nnw to sse to me. Anyone else seeing this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Well, then, referring to a real hurricane model (not the HRRR), the 00z HWRF has the 64kt wind field approaching the coast at 21z then, nearly 64kt (plus or minus some) scrapes the coast for a long time, up to nearly Charleston harbor SC. I would suppose that hurricane force wind gusts could occur 20 miles inland for a large stretch of the coast. I hope it really does turn away from the coast in South Carolina. Certainly not rooting for damage... I have a fondness for Myrtle Beach pier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 hours ago, Chinook said: The eye of Hurricane Matthew is barely visible on KAMX radar, 232 nautical miles away from it. Its also visible on the long range TDWR TMIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Winds are up to 125 pressure down to 944. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 945 mb, 132 kt FL wind on latest VDM. Update has it at 944 mb with 125 mph sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Very little change in track wrt FL at 5 am. NHC now brings it to 145 in 24 hours.. Ugly for Nassau, very likely to be raked by the NE eyewall in about 2-3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Grand Bahama may be having an effect, the eye has filled back in on the sat pics.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Grand Bahama may be having an effect, the eye has filled back in on the sat pics.... Im assuming you meant Andros Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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