PTC Matthew

[bugalou]

1 minute ago, LikesNaturesFury said:

I have no meteorological training, education or expertise. And I have no desire to distract from the near-term negative effects of Matthew on the east coast of Florida. I hope the forecast is wrong, and wish for the best for any and all in the areas currently facing a very bad forecast. But I'm wondering if anyone has been looking at the NAVGEM. Two days before the (previous) track was said to bring the storm near to the outer banks, then up the coast, perhaps to NY or New England, NAVGEM predicted it. Two days later that was (essentially) the NHC forecast. Yesterday, during the day, before the NHC significant track change which showed half of a loop, NAVGEM said that the storm would turn in pretty much the same path and weaken significantly. The model had it stall there (yesterday, during the day) at the end of the loop. Today (same as yesterday), the NAVGEM has the storm moving on the same arch and losing strength, toward the same location as yesterday, then intensifying dramatically, next to move northward. It seems to say that Matthew absorbs Nichole at this point in the NAVGEM. I don't have access to many models where I can play a loop. But I'm just wondering if the current NHC forecasts for both Matthew and Nichole put them pretty close to each other at 2pm Monday (is that eastern time?). Is it possible that the Fujiwhara Effect could then occur? Matthew absorbs Nichole? Is anyone thinking along these lines? Or is it just too far out to contemplate?

Between the trough's location at that point and Nicole being pretty weak, I doubt any major fujiwhara will occur.  That said, I am not a trained met either, just an enthusiast.

[TalcottWx]

Yeah, I don't usually pay attention to the actual Dvorak number details. 

In all reality it's similar to the color grid. Like an idiot's guide to satellite (being blunt- sorry, not an insult)

Looking at the Dvorak visually is just as useful. Gives you a good idea of the storm's symmetry. The storm is taking on the buzzsaw look on Dvorak.

[larrye]

3 minutes ago, LikesNaturesFury said:

I have no meteorological training, education or expertise. And I have no desire to distract from the near-term negative effects of Matthew on the east coast of Florida. I hope the forecast is wrong, and wish for the best for any and all in the areas currently facing a very bad forecast. But I'm wondering if anyone has been looking at the NAVGEM. Two days before the (previous) track was said to bring the storm near to the outer banks, then up the coast, perhaps to NY or New England, NAVGEM predicted it. Two days later that was (essentially) the NHC forecast. Yesterday, during the day, before the NHC significant track change which showed half of a loop, NAVGEM said that the storm would turn in pretty much the same path and weaken significantly. The model had it stall there (yesterday, during the day) at the end of the loop. Today (same as yesterday), the NAVGEM has the storm moving on the same arch and losing strength, toward the same location as yesterday, then intensifying dramatically, next to move northward. It seems to say that Matthew absorbs Nichole at this point in the NAVGEM. I don't have access to many models where I can play a loop. But I'm just wondering if the current NHC forecasts for both Matthew and Nichole put them pretty close to each other at 2pm Monday (is that eastern time?). Is it possible that the Fujiwhara Effect could then occur? Matthew absorbs Nichole? Is anyone thinking along these lines? Or is it just too far out to contemplate?

Last time I looked at the NAVGEM, it was an outlier and was way west. Now it may in fact shift or wobble west, but at this point that doesn't seem to be what the NHC is forecasting.

[DopplerWx]

matthew looking the best it has looked in a while now, buzzsaw.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATRAPID/satloop.html

[TalcottWx]

The NAVGEM isn't really a "tier one" product. It's never mentioned in the major events. Usually only popular because of weenie runs.

[Random Chaos]

Just now, larrye said:

Last time I looked at the NAVGEM, it was an outlier and was way west. Now it may in fact shift or wobble west, but at this point that doesn't seem to be what the NHC is forecasting.

In general the GEM models (RGEM, GGEM, NAVGEM) are not good representations of tropical systems. They tend to over-develop weak systems and don't play well with strong systems. They do much better with winter weather.

[jm1220]

GFS looks about the same from last run to me. Looks to be a very close shave with the eye, 20 miles west or east of the coast from West Palm Beach on north. If there's going to be a landfall anywhere, I'd be pretty concerned about the Cocoa Beach/Cape Canaveral area since it juts out to the east. 

[LikesNaturesFury]

Can someone let me know if this link shows the NAVGEM model loop? http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/nogaps.html

I understand that the NAVGEM has been an outlier rather consistently. But it has predicted the NHC track/intensity twice now. ECMWRF was an outlier for Sandy, I think? I could be wrong.

[Jaguars]

The GFS coastal eye rider solution, is it plausible that it literally rides up most of the Fla coast that way or is it more likely to either stay just off shore or the whole eye finally comes all the way onshore at some point?

[Random Chaos]

1 minute ago, LikesNaturesFury said:

Can someone let me know if this link shows the NAVGEM model loop? http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/nogaps.html

It appears to. It's the 12z run. You might find it easier to read it here as it gets rid of the weird 3d side view from the above loop: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/navgemtc2.cgi?time=2016100512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

 

 

[Amped]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS looks about the same from last run to me. Looks to be a very close shave with the eye, 20 miles west or east of the coast from West Palm Beach on north. If there's going to be a landfall anywhere, I'd be pretty concerned about the Cocoa Beach/Cape Canaveral area since it juts out to the east. 

It is a bit further east. Basically the 12z Euro but slower and it doesn't hit SC.

[LikesNaturesFury]

4 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

It appears to. It's the 12z run. You might find it easier to read it here as it gets rid of the weird 3d side view from the above loop: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/navgemtc2.cgi?time=2016100512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

 

 

Thank you!!! That is a better way to view the NAVGEN

[jm1220]

Just now, Jaguars said:

The GFS coastal eye rider solution, is it plausible that it literally rides up most of the Fla coast that way or is it more likely to either stay just off shore or the whole eye finally comes all the way onshore at some point?

I'd say it's more likely the eye stays offshore or comes entirely on land just based on how small the eye is, but it'll be a close shave either way and it's very likely there will be at least cat 1-2 conditions near the coast within 50 miles of the eye. If the northern or eastern eyewall do make it to land, that's where the really destructive cat 3 or 4 wind would be, and high surge. Also, if part of the eyewall stays over water, the storm will take a long time to lose wind speed since there isn't much in FL anyway to induce friction since it would be going over beaches and some swamp. 

[Random Chaos]

Just now, LikesNaturesFury said:

Thank you!!! That is a better way to view the NAMGEN

Should have given the link the main site so you can get the latest, not just today's 12z run - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[jojo762]

We are getting close to the point where actually looking at models is pointless, at least as far as FL is concerned. Real-time observations are more important. At this point we know it will be at least be within 40 miles of the coast. 

[jh28wd40]

I wonder if the friction on the west side of the storm will create it's own steering jetty and bring the eye on shore (like Charley in 2004)?

[Amped]

Just now, jm1220 said:

I'd say it's more likely the eye stays offshore or comes entirely on land just based on how small the eye is, but it'll be a close shave either way and it's very likely there will be at least cat 1-2 conditions near the coast within 50 miles of the eye. If the northern or eastern eyewall do make it to land, that's where the really destructive cat 3 or 4 wind would be, and high surge. Also, if part of the eyewall stays over water, the storm will take a long time to lose wind speed since there isn't much in FL anyway to induce friction since it would be going over beaches and some swamp. 

There's a much larger eye forming on the IR. Almost has an annular appearance.

[Jaguars]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I'd say it's more likely the eye stays offshore or comes entirely on land just based on how small the eye is, but it'll be a close shave either way and it's very likely there will be at least cat 1-2 conditions near the coast within 50 miles of the eye. If the northern or eastern eyewall do make it to land, that's where the really destructive cat 3 or 4 wind would be, and high surge. Also, if part of the eyewall stays over water, the storm will take a long time to lose wind speed since there isn't much in FL anyway to induce friction since it would be going over beaches and some swamp. 

Great points.  I almost wonder for northern FLA if it's worse that it stays just off shore longer so as not to lose as much strength as it rides up the coast.

[Derecho!]

30 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I apologize, but what exactly does this mean? Is this a potential strength based on current observations?

It is an automated method of estimating intensity from satellite imagery. It's especially useful for storms with no recon (like all of them in the Western Pacific).

With an aircraft in the storm right now, not particularly relevant, though people like it because it shows a much higher intensity than is actually being directly measured by recon. 

[Derecho!]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

There's a much larger eye forming on the IR. Almost has an annular appearance.

This doesn't look remotely annular. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Jaguars said:

Great points.  I almost wonder for northern FLA if it's worse that it stays just off shore longer so as not to lose as much strength as it rides up the coast.

Well for where you are, I think Jacksonville's worst case scenario is a track from the ESE which piles surge more efficiently into the bays/rivers. A track over some land for that long a distance would weaken the storm pretty decently I'd say before reaching you. Otherwise if it stays offshore you receive offshore cat 1 or 2 wind which would be damaging but not catastrophic. 

[jojo762]

Where the heck is recon going right now? Are they going to Puerto Rico??

[Tibet]

7 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Where the heck is recon going right now? Are they going to Puerto Rico??

Link? I still see them making a pass from the southwest.

[huronicane]

2 minutes ago, Tibet said:

Link? I still see them making a pass from the southwest.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium

[DopplerWx]

00z canadian with a fl landfall and a chs landfall.

[Tibet]

Just now, huronicane said:

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium

Yeah, that is where I was watching... doesn't look like they are heading towards Puerto Rico to me lol

[andyhb]

ADT estimating 931 mb/130 kts.

[jojo762]

4 minutes ago, Tibet said:

Yeah, that is where I was watching... doesn't look like they are heading towards Puerto Rico to me lol

It seemed to me they were going a bit too east, and the flight pattern was erratic. They did however turn, and are making another fix now. 

[jcwxguy]

down to 952.1mb on last pass

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

edit, if I was looking at right spot

[DopplerWx]

Down to 952mb it looks like. Def strengthening now.